PFL MMA #4: Friday, June 17, 2022

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PFL #4: Friday, June 17, 2022
7:00 PM eastern

https://twitter.com/search?q=#2022PFL4&src=typed_query&f=live

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/pfl-week-4-2559
https://fightodds.io/odds/3954/pfl-4-2022-regular-season

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/87835-pfl-2022-4-regular-season
https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/65844
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/PFL_4_(2022_season)
https://www.sherdog.com/events/Professional-Fighters-League-PFL-4-2022-Regular-Season-92570
https://www.pflmma.com/event/2022-pfl-4

Opening betting odds on left, current on right:

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I've bet Held just because he won last time and I don't think either fighter is any different to the way they were then.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
I've bet Held just because he won last time and I don't think either fighter is any different to the way they were then.
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Yeah, I'm waiting for the PFL lines to be released on BAS.

I bet on Schulte against Held last time, and Held clearly won that fight. I was surprised at how much Held improved his striking.

Both Held and Schulte are coming off of one loss, and both of those losses are against the same man: Olivier Aubin-Mercier.

So we're getting a guy who won the first fight and is a +130 to +145 underdog against a guy who hasn't upgraded his MMA skill set during the last 4 years in the PFL. Okay then.
 
PuertoRican said:
Yeah, I'm waiting for the PFL lines to be released on BAS.

I bet on Schulte against Held last time, and Held clearly won that fight. I was surprised at how much Held improved his striking.

Both Held and Schulte are coming off of one loss, and both of those losses are against the same man: Olivier Aubin-Mercier.

So we're getting a guy who won the first fight and is a +130 to +145 underdog against a guy who hasn't upgraded his MMA skill set during the last 4 years in the PFL. Okay then.
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Schulte did look impressive against OaM imo and he could have easily had gotten the decision there. The guy is a relentless tank.
 
Broe. said:
Schulte did look impressive against OaM imo and he could have easily had gotten the decision there. The guy is a relentless tank.
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Oh yeah, I agree with you for sure. I actually had money on OAM and thought he clearly lost the fight against Schulte.

That being said, you are getting decent dog money on a guy who clearly won a decision against another guy not that long ago. It will stay on the feet because one guy is way better at BJJ and is just average at TDs, while the other guy is good at Judo and is difficult to take down, and the underdog is the guy who showed not long that he is the better striker. It just doesn't make sense, so it's a no-brainer.
 
Broe. said:
Schulte did look impressive against OaM imo and he could have easily had gotten the decision there. The guy is a relentless tank.
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He fought the same style against Held the first time though and lost pretty clearly.
 
PuertoRican said:
Yeah, I'm waiting for the PFL lines to be released on BAS.

I bet on Schulte against Held last time, and Held clearly won that fight. I was surprised at how much Held improved his striking.

Both Held and Schulte are coming off of one loss, and both of those losses are against the same man: Olivier Aubin-Mercier.

So we're getting a guy who won the first fight and is a +130 to +145 underdog against a guy who hasn't upgraded his MMA skill set during the last 4 years in the PFL. Okay then.
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Those fights that don't make sense on why the line is a certain way are the fights people usually lose
 
I'm thinking about a play on Monte at current odds. I don't read too much into getting subbed by shoeface and Sordi has looked completely shit for the most part since he won the million. Seems to fold completely once the fight doesn't go his way and is a glass cannon at the best of times. Monte also has a decent record of subs against people with reasonable records. Looks like the fight could go either way to me.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
I'm thinking about a play on Monte at current odds. I don't read too much into getting subbed by shoeface and Sordi has looked completely shit for the most part since he won the million. Seems to fold completely once the fight doesn't go his way and is a glass cannon at the best of times. Monte also has a decent record of subs against people with reasonable records. Looks like the fight could go either way to me.
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The thing is sordi doesn't get ko he gets tko'd which is very different. He's never been flat out knocked unconscious in 34 fights. To beat Sordi you have to wear him down and smash him with better conditioning, this is where monte falls short. Sordi's lost to Cory is not surprising, Cory is a solid fighter who fought solid competition early in his career so his record is deceiving. Cory has better conditioning than Sordi. he beat Khalil Roundtree in TUF, so his 9-4 record can make you think he sucks, but he is actually a solid fighter.

Monte on the other hand doesn't have the conditioning , he has that bulky frame that's good for one round but once you get to the later rounds, he gasses out. Watching a recent fight he had against a can crusher who was 14-3 against 0-0 0-7 4-4 local brazilian cab drivers, here he is losing top position, and struggling to put him away till the third round.





That is a massive leap in competition fighting in low level mma in brazil( not even the jungle fights which is at least mid level mma) to fighting a pfl tournament winner, who's been around the mma game this long. I think sordi will spark him in round 1. He nearly beat Shoeface, out struck him and thwarted his submission attempts. Which tells your that Sordi is probably a black belt or Brown belt bjj at the very least to be able to avoid Antonio's bjj offense. Monte losing fast as he did and getting dropped by Antonio early is all you need to know about his skill level and this mismatch. Sordi's going to stay behind the jab and move and pace himself right, i give Monte a small window for a flash ko in the first two minutes, but even that is unlikely.

Sordi beat Chris Cammozi last year and had a competitive fight with Antonio, to go from that to losing to a low level regional fighter from brazil , i'd take a break from betting if he losses, out of pure shock and horror.
 
Stat_Collector said:
The thing is sordi doesn't get ko he gets tko'd which is very different. He's never been flat out knocked unconscious in 34 fights. To beat Sordi you have to wear him down and smash him with better conditioning, this is where monte falls short. Sordi's lost to Cory is not surprising, Cory is a solid fighter who fought solid competition early in his career so his record is deceiving. Cory has better conditioning than Sordi. he beat Khalil Roundtree in TUF, so his 9-4 record can make you think he sucks, but he is actually a solid fighter.

Monte on the other hand doesn't have the conditioning , he has that bulky frame that's good for one round but once you get to the later rounds, he gasses out. Watching a recent fight he had against a can crusher who was 14-3 against 0-0 0-7 4-4 local brazilian cab drivers, here he is losing top position, and struggling to put him away till the third round.





That is a massive leap in competition fighting in low level mma in brazil( not even the jungle fights which is at least mid level mma) to fighting a pfl tournament winner, who's been around the mma game this long. I think sordi will spark him in round 1. He nearly beat Shoeface, out struck him and thwarted his submission attempts. Which tells your that Sordi is probably a black belt or Brown belt bjj at the very least to be able to avoid Antonio's bjj offense. Monte losing fast as he did and getting dropped by Antonio early is all you need to know about his skill level and this mismatch. Sordi's going to stay behind the jab and move and pace himself right, i give Monte a small window for a flash ko in the first two minutes, but even that is unlikely.

Sordi beat Chris Cammozi last year and had a competitive fight with Antonio, to go from that to losing to a low level regional fighter from brazil , i'd take a break from betting if he losses, out of pure shock and horror.
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I tend to like betting against glass cannons when they fight finishers who have long odds. I'm not going to put my mortgage on it or anything, but I think it's worth a sprinkle.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
I tend to like betting against glass cannons when they fight finishers who have long odds. I'm not going to put my mortgage on it or anything, but I think it's worth a sprinkle.
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he's not really a glass chin fighter is what im telling you, a glass chin fighter gets ko unconscious. Sordi get's tko'd which is more to do with being worn out and drained and then having a referee come in and stop the fight. Ataev is the only guy who stopped him early(out on his feet), and he was a tough daga fighter who was 20-2 at the time with majority ko against solid fighters , sordi would go on to avenge those losses twice. Monte is no where near his level when he takes 3 rounds to put away a can crusher.
 
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I'm pairing Silveira and Wilkinson for +106

Pesta is coming back too soon after that KO and wasn't that great to begin with, Wilkinson should be able to finish him.

Silveira over Hamlet is more interesting, Silveira's pedigree from his dad to his time as a collegiate wrestler at ASU, I think it's going to give him the ability to neutralize the area that Hamlet depends on. Hamlet's cardio isn't great, I think Silveira subs him.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Agree with pretty much everything aside from the Collard/Martinez assessment, though that could be in part due to some bias towards Alex on my part.
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Probably should be 65% lean, i like collard at -180 for that price, Martinez can wrestle, but i feel like collard thrives when guys try and wrestle him and he picks them apart in the later rounds with body blows. Martinez has nice kickboxing and leg kicks, but i like collard as the more tougher and focus fighter. Martinez needs to wrestle here to drain collard, but i see collard keeping his composure and smashing martinez in the third when he starts to gas.
Minimal exposure for collard. i have him in 4/10 of my parlays, wont really put all my chips on him, martinez is athletic and can make any fight competitive.
 
I think with Collard it comes down to whether Martinez can handle the pace he fights at. The first couple of rounds with Clay are absolute hell pace wise.
 
I’ve long held the opinion Stephens’ power is overrated but this is a fight I think he can find a finish in.
 
Raush Manfio a sizeable dog again?!?!?!

Jesus christ when will people learn. He's now had 5 upsets in a row, about to make it six, all in the +200 range.
 
EndlessCritic said:
Raush Manfio a sizeable dog again?!?!?!

Jesus christ when will people learn. He's now had 5 upsets in a row, about to make it six, all in the +200 range.
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I doubt he beats OAM tbh. I think this is the end of the upset road.
 
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