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Yesterday when i filled up my car was shocked to see $3.07 per gallon. These prices are late 2008 values.
Must be an election soon.
Yesterday when i filled up my car was shocked to see $3.07 per gallon. These prices are late 2008 values.
Yesterday when i filled up my car was shocked to see $3.07 per gallon. These prices are late 2008 values.
Crude oil prices saw wild swings in 2023 before finishing the year down 10%, and more volatility could be ahead in 2024.
The key forces driving oil markets delivered big surprises over the past year, and they represent major sources of uncertainty in the new year.
According to analysts, here's what could jostle the oil market, from OPEC's weakening control over prices to China's economic slowdown.
OPEC+
The cartel has failed to prop up oil prices by cutting production, in part because non-OPEC nations like the US, Brazil, and Guyana have kept filling the hole. And fresh pledges from OPEC+ to extend reductions into early 2024 are falling flat.
"I don't want to say they're out of ammo, but they're kind of out of ammo," Rebecca Babin, a senior equity trader for CIBC Private Wealth, told Business Insider.
Analysts say its ability to work together and manage the market is being questioned. OPEC's last meeting in November was chaotic, with members struggling to agree on cuts. Earlier this month, Angola announced it would quit the group.
"I think the main risk for the market is the OPEC cohesion or lack thereof potentially as well," Hunter Kornfeind, an oil analyst from Rapidan Energy, said.
Saudi Arabia
OPEC's de facto leader has traditionally stepped in to restore order to the oil group and the overall market. One energy expert warned earlier that Saudi Arabia could wage a market share war with the US next year to regain control over oil prices.
But Riyadh has other priorities that may prevent it from boosting supply to drive prices and profits down, forcing other producers to exit the market.
Saudi Arabia has a lot of huge infrastructure projects coming on at the end of this decade, Homayoun Falakshahi, an oil analyst from research firm Kpler, pointed out.
The kingdom is hosting the 2029 Asian Winter Games, the 2030 World Expo, and the 2034 FIFA World Cup, which will require a lot of money, and the country's budget is dependent on oil.
China
The world's top oil importer has been roiled by a real estate crash, a debt crisis, and lackluster growth coming out of COVID, which have softened demand.
Babin recently said doubts about China's economy would be the oil market's biggest concern in 2024, followed by fear that US production will continue to outperform.
Still, demand is expected to grow in China as new refineries ramp up activity, Falakshahi told Business Insider.
"All this means that we still expect Chinese demand for crude to increase year on year, but it's not going to be huge," he added.
US supply
In 2023, booming US production caught markets off guard, helping non-OPEC nations take market share from countries like Saudi Arabia. But analysts don't see those surprises repeating next year.
"We expect [US production] to slow down, especially in the first half of the year," Falakshahi said. "And that's really linked to lower activity in the US."
A lot of what drove the US oil boom this year was a strong increase in efficiency, which will be hard to repeat.
Kpler expects US crude oil output to dip to 13.14 million barrels a day, down from the record high of 13.3 million recorded earlier this month.
Meanwhile, Rapidan sees 2024 production at 13.3 million-13.4 million barrels a day, and Babin from CIBC said expects only small changes.
"I'm not afraid of that number of really doing another repeat of 2023," she said.
You won’t hear President Biden talking about it much, but a key record has been broken during his watch: The United States is producing more oil than any country ever has.
The flow of huge amounts of crude from American producers is playing a big role in keeping prices down at the pump, diminishing the geopolitical power of OPEC and taming inflation. The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline nationwide has dropped to close to $3, and analysts project it could stay that way leading up to the presidential election, potentially assuaging the economic anxieties of swing-state voters who will be crucial to Biden’s hopes of a second term.
But it is not something the president publicly boasts about. The politics of oil are particularly tricky for Democrats, whose chances for victory in the 2024 elections could hinge on whether young, climate-conscious voters come out in big numbers. Many of those voters want to hear that Biden is doing everything in his power to keep oil in the ground.
“If you are not looking carefully at what the administration is actually doing, it is easy to get the wrong impression,” said Kevin Book, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners, a research firm. “There are a lot of things going on at once. This is an administration which is focused on the energy transition, but also taking a pragmatic approach on fossil fuels.”
The United States is producing about 13.2 million barrels of crude oil per day. That is millions of gallons more than is coming out of Saudi Arabia or Russia. It is more oil than was being produced even at its peak during the pro-fossil-fuels administration of former president Donald Trump, when production was 13 million barrels a day in November 2019.
Voters who listen to Trump and Biden speak may come away with the impression that the opposite is true. Trump recently told Fox News’s Sean Hannity that he would act as a dictator only on the first day of his presidency in 2025, in part because he wanted to “drill, drill, drill” for more oil. The former president has constantly attacked Biden’s clean energy agenda and accused him of squandering America’s prior “energy independence” because of allegiance to “environmental lunatics.”
While Biden’s White House has publicly celebrated the decline in gas prices and pledged to help consumers struggling with inflation, the president has largely stayed mum about the oil industry’s record output. In several speeches this year, he has blasted oil company executives for amassing record profits.
“They invested too little of that profit to increase domestic production and keep gas prices down,” Biden said during his State of the Union address in February. “Instead, they used those record profits to buy back their own stock, rewarding their CEOs and shareholders.”
The White House has also largely stayed mum on the oil production boom, instead touting Biden’s legislative record as the most ambitious effort to combat climate change in history and contrasting his stance with that of Trump and other deniers.
“The President is implementing the largest investment in climate ever, putting the United States on a path to cut climate pollution in half by 2030,” White House spokesman Angelo Fernández Hernández said in a statement. The statement praised Biden for protecting more than 21 million acres of public lands and waters and boosting clean-energy manufacturing by invoking the Defense Production Act and facilitating private-sector investments. “The President will continue to take bold climate action and rally world leaders to raise their collective ambition.”
The soaring domestic oil output has already begun to reshape geopolitical dynamics. The United States is producing so much oil that it has undermined the influence of OPEC, which failed when it tried to make production cuts recently to drive prices up globally. The amount cut was quickly backfilled by the United States and other non-OPEC nations, which gladly grabbed the market share OPEC forfeited.
The diminishment of OPEC’s influence gives Democratic operatives one less thing to worry about. It was only last year, during the midterm election, that Saudi Arabia embarrassed the administration by disregarding its requests not to cut production as prices at the pump were soaring. As things stand now, Saudi Arabia is not in a position to influence the U.S. election by pushing oil prices up as voting nears, which typically sours consumers on the incumbent in the White House.
The huge boost in U.S. oil production has defied analyst expectations and driven energy prices down around the globe. White House policy is hardly the key factor, but it has helped. Biden’s vows on the campaign trail to restrict growth of fossil fuels gave way to a more moderate approach after Russia invaded Ukraine and prices soared. The signal he sent to the industry as voters struggled with high gas prices was clear: Pump more.
“When the head of the U.S. government tells industry to produce more, that is significant,” Book said. “It reflected a sea change, and certainly the end of a campaign of very restrictive rhetoric.”
The shift, he said, gave oil companies and their investors the confidence to redouble their efforts to pull oil from the ground. They were able to ramp up production so high in large part because of efficiencies and innovations in the way oil is pumped.
“These companies have gotten more effective at drilling more rapidly,” said Mark Finley, a fellow in energy and global oil at Rice University’s Baker Institute. “They are drilling longer wells, and they are getting more production from each well.” He said analysts had not anticipated such strong growth because oil company investors were pressuring companies to scale back their infrastructure spending amid projections that the energy transition will shrink the market for fossil fuels.
But, Finley said, the companies have managed to recalibrate their infrastructure investments and increase output at the same time.
It is a mixed blessing for Biden. At the moment, the administration appears content not to be taking too much credit. The continued attacks from Republicans accusing the president of jeopardizing America’s energy security with his focus on climate action are out of sync with the reality on the ground, but they give Biden cover with his base. At the same time, the relatively low gas prices help him with swing voters.
“While the administration is pushing for an energy transition, they know prices at the pump matter to the economy, consumer pocketbooks and also their reelection prospects,” Finley said.
Climate activists have slammed Biden’s agreement to fast-track a controversial oil pipeline in West Virginia and a separate decision to approve the Willow oil project in Alaska, which is opposed by environmentalists.
Some liberals have also criticized Biden’s assertion in August that he had “practically” declared a climate emergency with his environmental policies, saying he should actually declare one, to combat extreme weather and other threats. Biden has taken steps to reduce methane emissions and also signed historic climate and infrastructure legislation aimed at weaning the country off fossil fuels in the years ahead.
But the current rush of domestic oil production comes as the president’s push to facilitate a transition to electric vehicles is falling short of expectations, providing an uncomfortable contrast for the White House.
As U.S. oil production was soaring to record levels in December, Biden administration officials were at the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Dubai assuring world leaders that the United States would help lead the global transition away from fossil fuels. That dichotomy stood out to Amara Enyia, an activist and policy director for the Movement for Black Lives, who attended the conference, known as COP28.
“There’s this dissonance between the commitments that are being made versus what the administration is actually doing,” she said. “We’re seeing this sort of two-headed approach to climate — on the one hand, drilling permits, and then on the other, talking about the need to move away from fossil fuels.”
For his part, Biden has said his top domestic priority is reducing prices for Americans, and the relief at the pump carries potential benefits for his 2024 prospects.
A short-term boost in domestic oil production and a corresponding decline in gas prices could have a long-term benefit for environmentalists — helping prevent the return to power of Trump and other deniers of climate change, said Josh Freed, the director of climate and energy at the center-left think tank Third Way.
“The fastest way to end all of American climate action is to see oil prices dramatically rise and have Republicans get elected to office,” he said, commending Biden’s handling of the issue.
Whether Biden is successfully walking this tightrope is likely to remain a matter of debate ahead of November’s election. Climate activists say base voters are frustrated by the softening of the president’s stance against fossil fuels, and mobilizing them will prove difficult despite the historic investment the administration is making in green power and accelerating the energy transition.
Climate-conscious voters were particularly dismayed by the administration’s approval of the Willow project, which will allow hundreds of miles of roads and pipelines, airstrips, a gravel mine and a major new processing facility in the middle of pristine Arctic tundra and wetland. For many, that decision was one of several signifying how Biden’s bold campaign promises to take on the fossil fuel companies yielded to dealmaking on permits and a more conciliatory approach toward the industry overall.
“You can’t solve the climate crisis without keeping fossil fuels in the ground,” said Jamie Henn, founder of Fossil Free Media, a nonprofit focused on ending oil and gas use. “Record oil production stands in the way of the energy transition … An ‘all of the above approach’ leads to flip-flopping on fossil fuels. It is bad policy, and also bad politics.”
“Shark Tank” investor and businessman Kevin O’Leary has a message for California governor Gavin Newsom: “Wake up and smell the hydrocarbons.”
California’s climate change policies have come under fire this week after Chevron revealed it faces a profit hit of up to $4 billion due to restrictive regulations in the Golden State. The regulations “have resulted in lower anticipated future investment levels,” the company said in a filing on Jan. 2, per Bloomberg.
In an interview on Fox Business, O’Leary slammed the state’s “uncompetitive” energy policies and called California’s management “the worst of every state in the union.”
Despite claiming to “like” Newsom after meeting him in person, O’Leary described the democratic governor as “clueless to the competition” in the energy market between states — adding, “I wouldn’t let him manage a candy store.”
He called California “a very bad place to do business” for energy companies and their investors. Is O’Leary right?
California vs. Big Oil
In late 2022, Newsom announced an ambitious climate action plan that would slash greenhouse gas emissions by 85% and drop gas consumption by 94% by 2045.
After reporting Big Oil made $200 billion in profits in 2022, Newsom accused them of “fleecing Californians at the pump” and promised to hold them accountable. State lawmakers are considering capping refining profits.
Speaking at the opening ceremony of New York City's Climate Week in September, Newsom accused oil supermajors of “lying” about climate change. He said: “The climate crisis is, after all, a fossil fuel crisis. They continue to play us for fools. I’ve had enough and I’m sick and tired of this.”
In the same week, California filed a civil lawsuit against five energy giants — Exxon Mobil, Shell, BP, ConocoPhillips and California-based Chevron — accusing them of misleading the public and downplaying how fossil fuels are contributing to climate change.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth rejected that claim, telling Bloomberg: “Climate change is a global issue. It calls for a coordinated global policy response, not piecemeal litigation that benefits attorneys and politicians.”
Investment capital in California
The Golden State’s not-so-golden treatment of Big Oil has had a huge impact on its willingness to invest in the nation’s most populous state.
According to Bloomberg, in December, Andy Walz, president of Chevron’s Americas Products business, wrote in a filing: “California’s policies have made it a difficult place to invest so we have rejected capital projects in the state.”
He added: “Such capital flight reflects the state’s inadequate returns and adversarial business climate.”
As an investor in the energy industry, O’Leary has rejected California because of its “bad policy [and] weak management” that he claims is “hurting the California economy and people.”
Instead, he would rather pump money into states like North Dakota, Virginia, Oklahoma and Texas because “they’re competing for my money” and have regulatory environments that boost — rather than hinder — energy security.
“Who would give a dime to California to invest in energy when the regulatory environment is so punitive you can't make money?” he said. “That’s what Chevron’s telling everybody.”
The shale revolution that began about 15 years ago saw a proliferation of thousands of small-time drillers turn the global energy order on its head and restored the US to the status of world’s biggest producer.
Today, as a multibillion-dollar wave of consolidation washes over the Permian Basin — the engine room of America’s oil industry — that landscape has been transformed. A handful of heavy hitters is now firmly in control.
Diamondback Energy’s $26bn deal for rival Endeavor Energy this week brought to almost $180bn the value of an oil and gas dealmaking spree that has reverberated across the US shale patch since the beginning of last year as big, publicly listed players swallowed rivals.
Just 10 companies will now control more than 6.4mn barrels of oil equivalent a day of the Permian’s 12.1mn boe/d of overall output, according to Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy. Six companies will each produce more than 700,000 boe/d — more than some Opec member countries.
Half of the sought-after Midland sub-basin, which makes up the eastern part of the Permian, will be controlled by just two companies: ExxonMobil and Diamondback.
“It’s now a story of bigger companies — not smaller companies,” said Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners, a consulting and investment group. “And that just has a much different cadence and tenor to it.”
In the past four months alone, Exxon has announced a $60bn deal for Pioneer Natural Resources, the biggest producer in the Permian; Occidental has agreed to snap up CrownRock for $12bn; and Diamondback announced its purchase of privately held Endeavor. (Another pending $53bn deal by Chevron for Hess gives the supermajor shale assets in the vast Bakken oilfield of North Dakota.)
The action pushes the Permian into a new era where drilling focused on growth at all costs, which catapulted it into country’s most prolific oilfield, has come to an end.
“It does feel like another turning of the page where shale has gone from an exploratory expansionary phase to a not declining but managed phase,” said Andrew Dittmar, senior vice-president at consultancy Enverus.
Over the past five years, under pressure from Wall Street, publicly owned companies have pulled back from the costly pursuit of volumes and sought to channel cash back to shareholders.
Private operators — less constrained by market demands — drove much of the Permian basin’s growth, responding to higher prices by rapidly raising production. Now, as those companies are absorbed by larger public rivals, the potential for surges has faded once more.
Diamondback said it would remove drilling rigs from the field after its acquisition, while insisting it could keep gradually growing output regardless.
“There is no way the US rig count grows after the recent wave of consolidation by Exxon, Chevron, Diamondback and Occidental,” said Conrad Gibbins, co-head of the upstream Americas business at Jefferies. “That points to one thing, which is we’re headed towards higher oil prices. It’s not a question of if, it’s a question of when.”
That adherence to strict exploration plans suggests the US shale energy industry will shift further away from its role as a swing supplier, able to quickly turn up the production dial to douse price rises as it did early in the boom.
“If Exxon, Chevron, Oxy, Diamondback, etc are going to have a programme that they just plough through and execute on, they are less likely to accelerate when prices are high, they are less likely to slow when prices are low — and that translates to Opec being more important,” said Pickering, referring to the oil export cartel led by Saudi Arabia.
Consolidation will, however, enable producers in the Permian to remain profitable even during commodity slumps. Wood Mackenzie believes operators can shave about $5 a barrel off the break-even costs of drilling that sit at about $30-$35 a barrel in the basin. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $78 a barrel on Tuesday.
One way of driving down costs is by joining together nearby acreage, enabling companies to operate across large swaths rather than piecemeal parcels. They can extend the length of horizontal oil wells they drill and centralise their infrastructure above ground.
Midland, Texas-based Diamondback said it has about 100,000 acres that touch Endeavor’s. It believes it can extend up to 175 lateral wells to overlap the two companies’ positions, while achieving $550mn in annual cost savings.
“In every deal we’ve ever done, we check our egos at the door, we get in the room with the other side and figure out what’s the best mousetrap on how to drill and complete wells in the space,” said Kaes Van’t Hof, Diamondback’s chief financial officer.
Autry Stephens, who grew Endeavor from a single rig operation almost half a century ago, had held off on selling the company for years. But people close to the deal said he had eventually agreed to sell to Diamondback in part because it would keep the company in Midland, where it is also headquartered.
Exxon has said it will be able to drive $2bn in annual synergies over the next decade through the Pioneer acquisition — largely by using technology to increase oil recovery, but also with longer wells.
“I feel like we had reached a point maybe a year or two ago, before this wave kicked off, where it felt like this is as good as the Permian is going to get in terms of cost and supply break-even,” said Alex Beeker, research director at Wood Mackenzie. “But all these deals have validated that there’s still a lot of efficiency improvements to go.”
For now, companies are focused on getting their transactions over the line. Exxon, Chevron and Occidental’s deals are being studied by US competition regulators.
Analysts do not expect the Federal Trade Commission to block any of the deals. But at some point, said Beeker, the continued concentration of control of America’s oil heartlands could “raise red flags”.
Want to know why?
China is no longer accepting US bonds or dollars in trade payments. They will accept oil.
Finding it would be difficult now. I learned it from Dr. Jim Willie. Search him on Rumble if you really want to know.You got a link for this?
A wide variety of taxes sadly.If Canada is producing 4.3 million BPD why am I paying $1.50 a litre?
Justin, you got some splainin' to do.
Finding it would be difficult now. I learned it from Dr. Jim Willie. Search him on Rumble if you really want to know.
It's a BRICS+ nations thing. They are boycotting the dollar and selling their US treasuries. They use asset backed currencies.
Yea it's not true. BRICS nations are trying to reduce their reliance on the dollar for trade between themselves... but trade between the US and China has always been in dollars and will continue to be for the foreseeable future, as the US is their top consumer.I'd be surprised if this was true because I'd expect more news about it. I couldn't find anything. I see they are cutting back on their reliance on the dollar but not completely cutting it off.
I understand your concerns. If I see something, I'll let you know.I'd be surprised if this was true because I'd expect more news about it. I couldn't find anything. I see they are cutting back on their reliance on the dollar but not completely cutting it off.
If Canada is producing 4.3 million BPD why am I paying $1.50 a litre?
Justin, you got some splainin' to do.