Not to take away from Kevin Lee win but out of last 12 fighters who missed

[TrueBias]

I watched 3 of his fights yesterday and not included the best stanky leg known to man, he gets wobbled an awfully lot in his fights.

But hes consistently doing 3 fights a year. These days, thats all i want.

 

[awymore]

The other things you mention should be randomly distributed variables. It seems you simply don't understand probability theory and aren't willing to listen to someone who does. If you really believe "12 is too small" then start flipping a coin and see how long it takes you to get 12 heads in a row (spolier alert: you'll be waiting a while).

There actually is a reasonable counter hypothesis to "missing weight gives an advantage". Since you can't come up with it on your own I'll explain it, maybe that will help you learn how to better think about these kinds of issues.

An alternative hypothesis is that fighters who cut more weight both have an advantage in a fight because they're bigger by fight time, but they're also more likely to miss weight since they have to cut more. That would explain the correlation and increase the likelihood of this randomly unlikely event (unlike the other randomly distributed factors you mentioned). Make sense?

You are absolutely correct, and I think your hypothesis for what's going on here is much more likely. However, there should be a real disincentive for those larger fighters who are trying to gain an advantage and fail to make the weight. My proposal would be that if a fighter who missed weight wins, they get a NC. We still get to see the fight, the loser gets extra money, and the guy who failed to meet the qualifications for the bout doesn't get to pad his record.

 

[kingskot]

You are absolutely correct, and I think your hypothesis for what's going on here is much more likely. However, there should be a real disincentive for those larger fighters who are trying to gain an advantage and fail to make the weight. My proposal would be that if a fighter who missed weight wins, they get a NC. We still get to see the fight, the loser gets extra money, and the guy who failed to meet the qualifications for the bout doesn't get to pad his record.

I actually like this idea. Why shouldn't it be a NC? On the other hand, if the fighter who makes weight wins they deserve the W, in which case it's a bit of an odd situation in that one fighter is fighting for a W and the other a NC. That's fine with me, that's what you get for missing weight, but I can see the Athletic Commission balking at that...

 

[tenniswhiz]

Look at the last 12 UFC fighters who missed weight surely not a coincidence almost all of the fighters won the fights......Common now if no edge why cut the weight at all?

This man did not win:
(If you look closely you can see his abs)

 

[Roljo]

Sweet sample size. Shit post.

Expand it to a larger sample size and it quickly becomes 50-50.

http://www.betmma.tips/ufc_fighters_who_missed_weight.php

In average the fighters that did make the weight were the favourites and still lost a more time than not. Return on investment by betting on the fighters who missed weight is way better. A pretty big sign that there is an advantage to not cutting the last pounds.

 

[Source]

fighters who miss weight seem to have an advantage of some sort. Out of the last 12 UFC fighters who came in overweight, eleven went on to win their respective bouts now.

Simply put correlation isn’t causation. There is a lot of missing information needed.

 

[gspfedkobe24]

This man did not win:
(If you look closely you can see his abs)

Just what exactly does Johhny have to do with the last 12 fighters who have missed weight and won? Johhny must have last been in the cage over 6 months ago.... So the stat must be 2-20 if you wanna date all the way back to then...Your point?

 

[gspfedkobe24]

Simply put correlation isn’t causation. There is a lot of missing information needed.

UFC fighters who have missed weight in 2018 are undefeated..... now 12-0 in 2018... What more numbers do you need little buddy?

 

[JoshR86]

Kevin won a round 10-7.

When it's that dominating, there's more to it than a guy weighing a lb over the limit.

 

[JoshR86]

UFC fighters who have missed weight in 2018 are undefeated..... now 12-0 in 2018... What more numbers do you need little buddy?

Name the 12 fights. Show who was the betting favorite going in.

If all 12 were betting favorites than your argument lacks substance.

 

[SHAZAM]

Imma start discrediting wins like this just like i do eye pokes and steroids. Idgaf if you bitches think my opinion doesn't make a difference i will use it as an argument from now on.

 

[The Natural Born Runner]

It made very little difference. He got very close to making the weight, therefore was still draining himself down.

 

[moogie101]

Its not the weight difference, its the killing yourself to make the agreed upon weight that weakens the body.

Harsher penalties are needed to stop this happening all the time. Automatic point off at start of first round, 40% of pay, no win or fight bonuses.

Instead fighters who made weight are being pressured to take the fight regardless of the fact that their opponent now has a significant advantage.

 

[AnotherOldGuy]

If you can't properly measure and quantify something, you can't inject it as an argument to support your side. The word DUH comes to mind.

That's simply not true in general. You can't measure or quantify musical ability, yet you certainly can argue that say Mozart was a better musician than I am.

Same for say acting ability. It can't be measured or quantified, but if I tried for a part vs say Tom Hanks I guarantee the producer is going to pick Tom Hanks based on his subjective (unmeasured and unquantified) judgment that Hanks is a much better actor than I am.

 

[AnotherOldGuy]

It made very little difference. He got very close to making the weight, therefore was still draining himself down.

That may or may not be true. The draining effect is exponential; the first pounds come off easily with little drain, subsequent pounds come off much harder with much greater drain. If one guy is naturally heavier then if both lose to the same level of draining you'd be correct, it wouldn't make a difference. However if they have the same base weight and ability to dehydrate, then it means that one pound constitutes a considerable extra drain on the one who made it - if it didn't, then both would have made it.

 

[LockardTheGOAT]

That's simply not true in general. You can't measure or quantify musical ability, yet you certainly can argue that say Mozart was a better musician than I am.

Same for say acting ability. It can't be measured or quantified, but if I tried for a part vs say Tom Hanks I guarantee the producer is going to pick Tom Hanks based on his subjective (unmeasured and unquantified) judgment that Hanks is a much better actor than I am.

Acting and musical talent are subjective by nature, though; Circumstances that affect each person's body's ability to perform are not. Thus, the analogy does not work.