Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - March, 2018

Baker out to 2.20 with one book right now.

same book has o1.5 RB's taken in the first round @1.57 too
 
iGnP said:
yup playing w my emotions. down to -350 on that site
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-245 dropping still.

First 3 are QB's up to +260

This is exactly why betting these props is an ulcer inducing nightmare LOL.

Could be it's Darnold and everyone was sucked into a smokescreen.

Edit: literally seconds later first 3 are QB's is +290
 
Had to add a bit more to the first 3 qb's now that the line is up to 260. It seems like even the Browns still have no idea what they're gonna do.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
Had to add a bit more to the first 3 qb's now that the line is up to 260. It seems like even the Browns still have no idea what they're gonna do.
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No, honestly from what it sounds like they've known for days or even weeks. They have just not let it leak out. So unless it's insider info moving these lines, it's all still conjecture and people covering themselves from earlier action.

Also, it's not a guarantee at all that if Baker goes #1 that the Giants take Darnold. I **think** they would, but Barkley is still in play. The huge swing on this line makes me nervous that there's inside info about the Giants that they will take Barkley regardless of what Cleveland does.
 
mkess101 said:
No, honestly from what it sounds like they've known for days or even weeks. They have just not let it leak out. So unless it's insider info moving these lines, it's all still conjecture and people covering themselves from earlier action.
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Gotcha, it's weird the Browns have done such a good job at not leaking the info, considering they're not good at anything, lol. Yeah I agree I bought out of action already with Baker/Darnold, assuming there's been a lot of ass covering going on with other bettors as well. This shit is so frantic, we've put ourselves in a position to guess what the fucking Cleveland Browns are gonna do, it's not a great place to be in but hopefully it turns out okay for us haha.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
Gotcha, it's weird the Browns have done such a good job at not leaking the info, considering they're not good at anything, lol. Yeah I agree I bought out of action already with Baker/Darnold, assuming there's been a lot of ass covering going on with other bettors as well. This shit is so frantic, we've put ourselves in a position to guess what the fucking Cleveland Browns are gonna do, it's not a great place to be in but hopefully it turns out okay for us haha.
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We are retarded, straight up LOL. You put it better than I could have.
 
FFS, Mayfield #1 is now -170.

I wonder if this is people just just swinging the lines themselves with max bets and then covering when it moves? They'll get limited to nothing by tomorrow, but maybe they don't know that, or don't care.

Guice 2nd RB taken all the way to -245 now, win or lose I'm loving the value on that. I did take a tiny bit of NOT Guice 2nd at +175, but I'm still heavily invested in him at +125. Huge props to @iGnP for spotting that one.
 
Mayfield back to -185 and I hit it again. Josina Anderson just reported on ESPN that it's "expected" that the Browns take him. This line is gonna spike again.
 
Washington just scored less than 30 seconds into this game, lol.
 
Damn If Mayfield goes first and the Giants do take Darnold I will actually do well on all this shit now as long as the Jets take a QB too!
 
Mayfield went from -170 to -380 in 10 minutes.
 
Considering plays on brewers rl and White Sox rl.

I like Junis but I don’t feel like kc should be that juiced against anyone

Hendricks hasn’t been as sharp forvthe cubs this year. I know brews lost Thames but I still think there’s a little value there with how good Anderson’s numbers are against the cubs

Not a whole lot I like about the mlb card. Was considering Tampa over but it’s too late now

On dodgers for tomorrow. Think that line gets steamed. Currently at -140
 
ill800 said:
Considering plays on brewers rl and White Sox rl.

I like Junis but I don’t feel like kc should be that juiced against anyone

Hendricks hasn’t been as sharp forvthe cubs this year. I know brews lost Thames but I still think there’s a little value there with how good Anderson’s numbers are against the cubs

Not a whole lot I like about the mlb card. Was considering Tampa over but it’s too late now

On dodgers for tomorrow. Think that line gets steamed. Currently at -140
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I played the Brewers for 1.5u at +157. They've won 8 in a row. Anderson has the ability to shut down teams when he's on, and like you said Hendricks has been so-so for the Cubs. I think the Cubs as a very slight favorite (-125 maybe) makes sense, but not -167. Line is off imo.
 
Mayfield 1 just went from -380 to -210 in the span of a few mins, lol.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
Mayfield 1 just went from -380 to -210 in the span of a few mins, lol.
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People are taking massive action on both sides of this I have a feeling. 5d gonna be limiting a bunch of people to $1 bets after tonight. They found that they can easily move these props when they bet them, so they are just taking free $ from 5d. Maybe I'm wrong, but I have a feeling that's what's happening.
 
I'm not advocating a play one way or another, but keep this in mind if you're looking to bet o/u 5.5 QBs taken in round one:

There is a 99.9% chance that 5 QBs are for sure taken in the first round: Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Mayfield, and Jackson

The next QB in question is probably Mason Rudolph, whose draft grades range from late first round to early third round. But the kicker in all of this- if a team really wants him, they might trade up to secure him at the end of the first round. What's the reason for this? By being selected in the first round, it allows the team to exercise an extra year under contract, which makes a lot of sense financially

It's very tempting to go under 5.5 QBs, but the juice is very discouraging when you take the above into consideration. I'm debating throwing $10 on the o5.5 for that reason, as I can see a savvy team investing in him for that extra year.

edit: o5.5 is +220 on my site. threw $10 on it, yolo
 
-190 now on Mayfield.

Huge swings like this aren't normal, even for the draft.
 
me if Darnold is taken #1


Randy-ectoplasm.jpg
 
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