Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - March, 2018

People are taking massive action on both sides of this I have a feeling. 5d gonna be limiting a bunch of people to $1 bets after tonight. They found that they can easily move these props when they bet them, so they are just taking free $ from 5d. Maybe I'm wrong, but I have a feeling that's what's happening.

didn't they pull the lines on who gets drafted #1 other than Baker Mayfield? I'm not seeing any of those individual player gets drafted #1 lines that I saw yesterday. That is probably your answer as to why the swings are taking place. Books are hedging a few outcomes?
 
I'm not advocating a play one way or another, but keep this in mind if you're looking to bet o/u 5.5 QBs taken in round one:

There is a 99.9% chance that 5 QBs are for sure taken in the first round: Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Mayfield, and Jackson

The next QB in question is probably Mason Rudolph, whose draft grades range from late first round to early third round. But the kicker in all of this- if a team really wants him, they might trade up to secure him at the end of the first round. What's the reason for this? By being selected in the first round, it allows the team to exercise an extra year under contract, which makes a lot of sense financially

It's very tempting to go under 5.5 QBs, but the juice is very discouraging when you take the above into consideration. I'm debating throwing $10 on the o5.5 for that reason, as I can see a savvy team investing in him for that extra year.

I have o5.5 for exactly the reason you described. We know 5 is a lock, and I have it at +180 and +205. I'll roll with 2-1 that someone either takes Rudolph that's currently in the first round, or moves up for him. Not a big bet, but it's worth it at these odds.
 
I have o5.5 for exactly the reason you described. We know 5 is a lock, and I have it at +180 and +205. I'll roll with 2-1 that someone either takes Rudolph that's currently in the first round, or moves up for him. Not a big bet, but it's worth it at these odds.
i got +220. threw 10 on it
 
didn't they pull the lines on who gets drafted #1 other than Baker Mayfield? I'm not seeing any of those individual player gets drafted #1 lines that I saw yesterday. That is probably your answer as to why the swings are taking place. Books are hedging a few outcomes?
that's probably the case, yes. my site had individuals listed up until maybe 3 hours ago, then everything got pulled and the only option left was "will baker be #1"
 
didn't they pull the lines on who gets drafted #1 other than Baker Mayfield? I'm not seeing any of those individual player gets drafted #1 lines that I saw yesterday. That is probably your answer as to why the swings are taking place. Books are hedging a few outcomes?

They did but you can still be NOT Mayfield, and this line has swung HUGE in the last hour. From -395 to -170 back to -380 and now back down to -230. It's insanity. Some of it is books hedging probably and people covering earlier action, but some of it is just people betting big amounts to move the line and then taking the other side. Until they are limited anyway.
 
And now -270...
 
Bet this Mayfield line moves another dollar from 270 with 8mins to go. It's been that crazy. It won't stop. Lol.

Edit. already down to 215 again.
 
They did but you can still be NOT Mayfield, and this line has swung HUGE in the last hour. From -395 to -170 back to -380 and now back down to -230. It's insanity. Some of it is books hedging probably and people covering earlier action, but some of it is just people betting big amounts to move the line and then taking the other side. Until they are limited anyway.

my guess is that there is limited liquidity so not out of the oridinary to see large swings.

did you bet trump/clinton?

millions of dollars gambled at betfair with 400 point swings every 5 to 10 minutes
 
lol ESPN keeps bringing up the fact that if 6 QBs are taken in the first round, it'll be historic. okay adding another $10 bc im a degen
 
my guess is that there is limited liquidity so not out of the oridinary to see large swings.

did you bet trump/clinton?

millions of dollars gambled at betfair with 400 point swings every 5 to 10 minutes

Fair point. I think there's a lot people out there who understand it and hammer lines knowing they'll influence and essentially buy themselves freerolls.
 
The Browns are mindfucking the shit out of us rn. This is the best they've played anything since Jim Brown was on the team.
 
I'm okay if Darnold goes first.

I'm better if Mayfield does IF and only if the next 2 picks are QB's. If it's Mayfield then Barkley, that's not a train wreck but it's a marginal loss.

If somehow it's Allen, same thing.

If the f'ing Browns have fooled everyone and take Rosen (or anyone that's not Darnold, Baker, or Allen) I take an absolute bath.
 
Lines now pulled on Baker.
 
It cant be Baker. it legit makes no sense

#stillindenial
 
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