Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - March, 2018 | Page 43

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by mkess101, Mar 1, 2018.

  1. iGnP Silver Belt

    iGnP
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    Yea ill be on the Bucks ML and Pelicans +6 but I havent decided for how much yet. Leaning towards both being small plays
     
    #841
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  2. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

    ill800
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    Orioles ml
    Dbacks ml
     
    #842
  3. iGnP Silver Belt

    iGnP
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    I might be against you in that first game. IDK how you could back Cashner when his ERA to FIP/xFIP discrepancy is so damn high
     
    #843
  4. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

    ill800
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    Lol you hate cashner I know. I still think hes think he’s a good pitcher

    You also have to factor in defenses, bullpen and bats, all three of which I think the orioles are better.

    Os schedule has been brutal. This is the first bad team they’re facing. It’s going to be pretty cold in Detroit tonight also, which will affect defense and how the ball flies
     
    #844
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2018
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  5. iGnP Silver Belt

    iGnP
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    That might be @mkess101 , i think I've only bet on one Cashner game so far and I won. But he's been pretty lucky to have the success he's had. It's eventually going to catch up with him
     
    #845
  6. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

    ill800
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    And you might be right. Camden is a hitters park and with the amount of fly balls he gives up it could be a huge factor when it warms up
     
    #846
  7. iGnP Silver Belt

    iGnP
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    If VanVleet doesn't play tonight, Washington is a potential big play
     
    #847
  8. mkess101 85 or bust...

    mkess101
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    I don't hate him but he's a back of the rotation guy AT BEST.
     
    #848
  9. iGnP Silver Belt

    iGnP
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    Wizards +7

    I think we have to bet the Wizards here without FVV for the second game in a row. The spread in game 1 was Toronto -7.5 and they covered the spread by 0.5 points thanks to a great second half by the Raptors, where they outscored the Wizards by 12 points. If we look a little deeper into that game 1, there are a few reasons to like the Wizards:

    1. Toronto shot the ball extremely well; those numbers should regress. I think it's pretty telling that they barely covered while shooting the way that they did.
    53.2% from the field
    53.3% from 3 on 30 attempts

    2. The absence of FVV was aided in part by two Raptors players have anomaly games.
    • Serge Ibaka went for 23 points on 8/11 shooting (3/4 on 3 point attempts)
    • Delon Wright went for 18 points on 7/10 shooting (3/4 on 3 point attempts)
    I have to believe those two wont have a repeat of game one and the absence of FVV will be felt more here. I don't think Delon Wright is a poor player, but its much more likely that he plays much worse here in game 2

    3. You'd have to think Beal and Wall play better than they did in game 1. I'm not holding my breath for them to score 30 a piece on 60% shooting, but again, even a small increase in their combined 14/37 shooting and 6 turnovers would have allowed them to cover game 1.
     
    #849
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  10. iGnP Silver Belt

    iGnP
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    Does anyone like Dodgers -1.5?
     
    #850
  11. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

    ill800
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    I think the dodgers are playing better baseball now. Still don’t have their mojo back though.

    Padres have been a surprising team this year so far. Much better on the road.

    I wouldn’t pay the ml juice, that’s for sure.

    Both pitchers struggling. Woods obviously the better of the two.

    I think the dodgers starters really overachieved last year and this year they won’t come close to matching how good they were
     
    #851
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2018
  12. iGnP Silver Belt

    iGnP
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    Hmm... I dont particularly think their offense overachieved actually but it def misses a lot without JT in there. Maybe ill play the under...
     
    #852
  13. iGnP Silver Belt

    iGnP
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    LOL fuck off, VanVleet is going to play after he was downgraded from "questionable" to "doubtful" earlier today. That's fucking bullshit. If I can get Raptors -7 live ill prob get out of my bet, that was literally one of the big reasons I was fading the Raptors
     
    #853
  14. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

    ill800
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    I was talking about their starting pitching overachieving
     
    #854
  15. iGnP Silver Belt

    iGnP
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    Really, I disagree with that even more. Their defense was top notch and obviously help keep their pitchers' ERA down, but Kershaw, Wood, Darvish is a pretty formidable 3 on top of their bullpen, who you can argue was one of the top 3 in the league, if not the best
     
    #855
  16. mkess101 85 or bust...

    mkess101
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    I'm taking a stab at Bledsoe pts o16.5. I live in WI and he is NOT happy about his game 1 performance. I expect him to be pretty aggressive tonight. A bit of juice at -125 but I think he scores around 20 tonight.

    Edit: Also was thinking of playing the Bucks tonight but they got bet all the way down to +1. I'll maybe play them live if there's a good spot but passing on this. Thought I'd see them +3 and was hoping (probably foolishly) to see +3.5 at some point.
     
    #856
  17. iGnP Silver Belt

    iGnP
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    Raptors are killing the Wizards... I doubt they'll play VanVleet for extended minutes (if at all, actually) if they're cruising here. Wont matter either way, Raptors seem to be the right side tonight unless Wizards have an epic comeback in them. Bad read on my end
     
    #857
  18. stretcharmstrong Green Belt

    stretcharmstrong
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    Tailed the wizards +7.5 then again +19.5 and +20.5 so I hope it won’t be a complete disaster!!!
     
    #858
  19. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

    ill800
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    I think Hill, wood, ryu and maeda all over achieved. I don’t think any of them are as good as the numbers they put up last year
     
    #859
  20. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

    ill800
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    Thinking about Boston -1.5 +250

    ohtani getting a lot of love, maybe too much
     
    #860

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