Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - February, 2018

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iGnP said:
nuggets were absurdly hot from 3, it happens. for all we know, MIL was the right side and this was just variance

for what its worth, Henson being out is a big deal imo
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For sure Henson being out hurts. He's a liability on offense, but more than makes up for it on defense. And against a big that can do it all like Jokic, that's huge. (And given Jokic's monster stat line, it looks like the other Bucks bigs were completely overmatched by him).

Nuggets are a weird team. Maybe the team I have the hardest time reading in the entire league. Tons of offensive talent, and sometimes look like world beaters. Then there's times where they just look lost.
 
onC said:
Just curious, what's the thought process here? You know you can bet a more reasonable amount, right? Doesnt have to be 5u or nothing.
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I thought the line was too good to be true here and I thought I was falling for a trap. The Bucks were missing John Henson, who has one of the highest +/- ratings on the team. Additionally, he was being replaced by their worst player, Thon Maker. There is a HUGE drop off between those two. Nuggets have also had great success historically against the Bucks. One final point is the bench differential for the two teams- while Denver has a poor bench differential, MIL’s is one of the worst in the league. The wrong team was favored imo and there was a lot of value
 
iGnP said:
I thought the line was too good to be true here and I thought I was falling for a trap. The Bucks were missing John Henson, who has one of the highest +/- ratings on the team. Additionally, he was being replaced by their worst player, Thon Maker. There is a HUGE drop off between those two. Nuggets have also had great success historically against the Bucks. One final point is the bench differential for the two teams- while Denver has a poor bench differential, MIL’s is one of the worst in the league. The wrong team was favored imo and there was a lot of value
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Betting any props for the all star weekend? Only thing I took so far is Ellington to win 3 point contest at +700. Yeah Klay is the rightful favorite and Gordon I guess should be next, but I just kinda have a feeling about Ellington. He has a quick release and pretty effortless motion, so he shouldn't tire easily.

No lean on dunk contest. Skills contest, not sure. Was thinking maybe take Williams +415 as the co-favorite, or possibly a small stab on Hield +615 or whatever he is.
 
mkess101 said:
Betting any props for the all star weekend? Only thing I took so far is Ellington to win 3 point contest at +700. Yeah Klay is the rightful favorite and Gordon I guess should be next, but I just kinda have a feeling about Ellington. He has a quick release and pretty effortless motion, so he shouldn't tire easily.

No lean on dunk contest. Skills contest, not sure. Was thinking maybe take Williams +415 as the co-favorite, or possibly a small stab on Hield +615 or whatever he is.
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Dunk Contest: Nance +275
3-Point Competition: Ellington +700
Skills Challenge: Lou Williams +425
 
iGnP said:
Dunk Contest: Nance +275
3-Point Competition: Ellington +700
Skills Challenge: Lou Williams +425
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Gonna go with you on Williams for sure. He was my initial lean anyway. I guess I'll play Nance very small too just to have a rooting interest.
 
mkess101 said:
Gonna go with you on Williams for sure. He was my initial lean anyway. I guess I'll play Nance very small too just to have a rooting interest.
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If the field was better, id be heavy on NOT Klay winning the 3 point contest. Usually there's great value in it but there are a couple of guys in the field that aren't great set shooters IMO (also a couple of new-comers, who knows how they will perform)
 
iGnP said:
If the field was better, id be heavy on NOT Klay winning the 3 point contest. Usually there's great value in it but there are a couple of guys in the field that aren't great set shooters IMO (also a couple of new-comers, who knows how they will perform)
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Yeah but even with this field -215 might have solid value. I think Ellington, Beal, Gordon (obviously), and Booker all have the kind of quick release, low effort stroke that you need to win this thing. George and Lowry not so much. Harris sort of in between imo.

It's not a lot of juice to pay I don't think for 7 guys vs 1. You just need one guy to have a really good night OR Klay to be a little off in one of the rounds to win. I think I am gonna play it for 2.15u.
 
mkess101 said:
Yeah but even with this field -215 might have solid value. I think Ellington, Beal, Gordon (obviously), and Booker all have the kind of quick release, low effort stroke that you need to win this thing. George and Lowry not so much. Harris sort of in between imo.

It's not a lot of juice to pay I don't think for 7 guys vs 1. You just need one guy to have a really good night OR Klay to be a little off in one of the rounds to win. I think I am gonna play it for 2.15u.
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I don’t think having a quick release is that vital in the competition honestly. There is plenty of time unless you’re going pretty slowly. Experience is the biggest factor imo. I like Ellington because he has a pretty good % when he has an open 3 and he’s not really a guy that can create his own shot. Guys like Beal and PG are better players than 3 point shooters. The contest is made for guys like Klay and Gordon (obviously, two former winners of the contest) but Ellington falls into that same mold imo. That’s why I think there’s value on him
 
iGnP said:
I don’t think having a quick release is that vital in the competition honestly. There is plenty of time unless you’re going pretty slowly. Experience is the biggest factor imo. I like Ellington because he has a pretty good % when he has an open 3 and he’s not really a guy that can create his own shot. Guys like Beal and PG are better players than 3 point shooters. The contest is made for guys like Klay and Gordon (obviously, two former winners of the contest) but Ellington falls into that same mold imo. That’s why I think there’s value on him
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So believe it or not I've actually competed in a few of these (and won one of them) at 3 on 3 tourneys. When I graduated my high school I was actually the all time leader in 3 pointers made (and 3 pointers taken to be fair LOL). A couple kids broke my records since then but one thing I could always do was shoot. It's from a shorter distance (high school/college distance) and obviously a far lower level of shooting talent but some of the same principles apply. The reason the quick release matters (at least to a degree) is that everything about this contest is rhythm. Every guy generally hits a stretch where they miss 3, 4, 5 in a row. At that point they tend to need a "reset" because their rhythm is off. I was the same way when I did these contests. If you have a quick release, it gives you that extra second or two of time when you pause to do that reset. You probably know what I mean, when you see guys take a half step back, take a deep breath, then start shooting again. The guys who jump when they shoot, or have a slower release, are the guys who end up rushing the final rack and spaz up their last 1 or 2 shots due to time running out. Saving those couple seconds with a quicker release generally means none of your shots end up being rushed, even if you take that "reset" pause.

That's probably a slight bit of overanalysis, but I do think it matters at least a little.
 
Need some big scores to make it tough for Klay to advance in 3 point shootout. On Not Klay to win -215.
 
Bah Ellington just 17 probably not gonna advance.
 
Thank you Devin Booker!
 
Don't usually post bets in here but I think England have really good value next weekend vs scotland in the 6 nations, they are 1.4 atm : https://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/scotland-v-england/winner

scotland haven't beaten england in nearly 10 years and have had a very mixed start to the championship after getting destroyed vs a injury ridden welsh side and pulling it out of the bag against the french chokers very late in the game. england just represent a much superior team to wales and france atm, I don't see anything in scotlands favor other than playing at home in murrayfield. at worst I expect this line to go to 1.35 for a easy trade.
 
iGnP said:
I prefer the 1H line, personally
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Even with the added juice?

1st half +6 at -115 or game +11 at -115? I was thinking of taking the 11 and now am rethinking it. Running out of time though.
 
mkess101 said:
Even with the added juice?

1st half +6 at -115 or game +11 at -115? I was thinking of taking the 11 and now am rethinking it. Running out of time though.
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didnt bet it, but Warriors have usually shown to play lax in the first half and play hard in the second. that's the only reason id prefer the 1H line. its kinda unlikely that the clippers dont cover the 1h line but cover full game
 
iGnP said:
didnt bet it, but Warriors have usually shown to play lax in the first half and play hard in the second. that's the only reason id prefer the 1H line. its kinda unlikely that the clippers dont cover the 1h line but cover full game
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I passed too on both. Took u120.5 for first half, but just .75u. Doesn't look great so far.
 
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