Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - April, 2017

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Live bet rockets +6 for 2u And ml .5 for +200 I think they get back in this with a chance to win it at the end
 
Potential 4u NBA game tomorrow. Gotta look into it more before pulling the trigger
 
iGnP said:
Potential 4u NBA game tomorrow. Gotta look into it more before pulling the trigger
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Care to share? I just saw Blake Griffin is now out for the rest of the playoffs with a toe injury. Can the Jazz pull off the upset down 2-1? Ended up playing Houston last night at +2.5 for 2U. I was losing my shit the last 3 minutes of that game. Too damn close for comfort
 
Raptors (+110) risk: 2u

I only went in for 2u in this game instead of 4u, which I originally wanted. The Raptors have shot the ball very poorly in their two losses and I don't think that's something we should expect going forward, seeing as the Bucks were tied for 17th in defensive efficiency during the season. If you ignore the 3 games of this playoff series, the Raptors have won 7 out of 8 possible regular season meetings against the Bucks in the past two seasons, which included 3/4 in Mil (the one loss being the game without Lowry). The reason I didn't go through w/ four units is because the Bucks seem to be playing much better since Middleton returned. Giannis is the unquestioned superstar on the team but Middleton might be one of the most underrated players in the league, both on the offensive and defensive side. He brings another wrinkle to this Bucks team that the Raptors have to figure out. I think the most recent blow out loss in Game 3 is going to make the Raptors come out strong to tie this series at 2 games a piece.
 
YuRikeyAmerican said:
Care to share? I just saw Blake Griffin is now out for the rest of the playoffs with a toe injury. Can the Jazz pull off the upset down 2-1? Ended up playing Houston last night at +2.5 for 2U. I was losing my shit the last 3 minutes of that game. Too damn close for comfort
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Only went in for 2u, write up is above this post ^^^^

I think Blake Griffin is one of the most overrated players in the league in terms of affecting game outcome. His injury doesn't mean much to me, honestly. If Gobert is still out, I still like the Clippers to win the series. If Gobert comes back and looks healthy, then we can revisit this conversation but I still like the Clippers to win the series now that they have regained home court advantage.
 
iGnP said:
Only went in for 2u, write up is above this post ^^^^

I think Blake Griffin is one of the most overrated players in the league in terms of affecting game outcome. His injury doesn't mean much to me, honestly. If Gobert is still out, I still like the Clippers to win the series. If Gobert comes back and looks healthy, then we can revisit this conversation but I still like the Clippers to win the series now that they have regained home court advantage.
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How do you feel about the Spurs at -5 today? I feel like Pop was pretty pissed with his players last game and think they are gonna come out pretty intense today
 
YuRikeyAmerican said:
How do you feel about the Spurs at -5 today? I feel like Pop was pretty pissed with his players last game and think they are gonna come out pretty intense today
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Seriously no opinion on that game. I think SA wins but I think the game can play out in many different ways. Personally, I'm gonna pass on the pre game line and look to live bet the Spurs after halftime if the line is right
 
iGnP said:
Seriously no opinion on that game. I think SA wins but I think the game can play out in many different ways. Personally, I'm gonna pass on the pre game line and look to live bet the Spurs after halftime if the line is right
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BOL to you! I'm gonna see how I do on the few UFC prelims I bet on, and if things are looking good, might play the Spurs to cover
 
iGnP said:
Raptors (+110) risk: 2u

I only went in for 2u in this game instead of 4u, which I originally wanted. The Raptors have shot the ball very poorly in their two losses and I don't think that's something we should expect going forward, seeing as the Bucks were tied for 17th in defensive efficiency during the season. If you ignore the 3 games of this playoff series, the Raptors have won 7 out of 8 possible regular season meetings against the Bucks in the past two seasons, which included 3/4 in Mil (the one loss being the game without Lowry). The reason I didn't go through w/ four units is because the Bucks seem to be playing much better since Middleton returned. Giannis is the unquestioned superstar on the team but Middleton might be one of the most underrated players in the league, both on the offensive and defensive side. He brings another wrinkle to this Bucks team that the Raptors have to figure out. I think the most recent blow out loss in Game 3 is going to make the Raptors come out strong to tie this series at 2 games a piece.
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Not saying I disagree with the pick, but for sure you hit the nail on the head with Middleton. Esp at the defensive end. That 17th in defensive eff is so misleading. They replaced a very poor defender (Parker) with a very good one in Middleton. In addition, their rating dropped when Brogdon got hurt for a month of the season. With the length of Brogdon at PG, Middleton at SG, and Giannis as a hybrid SF/PG/PF plus Snell (who's doing a very good job on Derozan) the Bucks actually are a very above average defensive team.

All that said, I think today's game is going to come down to the wire so I agree that the bet is probably to take the team at + odds which is the Raptors. Some of their struggles are due to the Bucks D, some of it is just that they have missed open shots.
 
mkess101 said:
Not saying I disagree with the pick, but for sure you hit the nail on the head with Middleton. Esp at the defensive end. That 17th in defensive eff is so misleading. They replaced a very poor defender (Parker) with a very good one in Middleton. In addition, their rating dropped when Brogdon got hurt for a month of the season. With the length of Brogdon at PG, Middleton at SG, and Giannis as a hybrid SF/PG/PF plus Snell (who's doing a very good job on Derozan) the Bucks actually are a very above average defensive team.

All that said, I think today's game is going to come down to the wire so I agree that the bet is probably to take the team at + odds which is the Raptors. Some of their struggles are due to the Bucks D, some of it is just that they have missed open shots.
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Agreed. I think the Raptors are a very streaky team. If they happen to jump ahead and look good for extended stretches, I have no problems live betting them at -2.5 or -3. I have a hard time seeing such a young bucks team beating a Raptors whose core has a ton of playoff experience
 
iGnP said:
Raptors (+110) risk: 2u

I only went in for 2u in this game instead of 4u, which I originally wanted. The Raptors have shot the ball very poorly in their two losses and I don't think that's something we should expect going forward, seeing as the Bucks were tied for 17th in defensive efficiency during the season. If you ignore the 3 games of this playoff series, the Raptors have won 7 out of 8 possible regular season meetings against the Bucks in the past two seasons, which included 3/4 in Mil (the one loss being the game without Lowry). The reason I didn't go through w/ four units is because the Bucks seem to be playing much better since Middleton returned. Giannis is the unquestioned superstar on the team but Middleton might be one of the most underrated players in the league, both on the offensive and defensive side. He brings another wrinkle to this Bucks team that the Raptors have to figure out. I think the most recent blow out loss in Game 3 is going to make the Raptors come out strong to tie this series at 2 games a piece.
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Love the bucks, native of WI but I went 2 units as well Toronto ...agree with your thoughts. GL us!
 
iGnP said:
Agreed. I think the Raptors are a very streaky team. If they happen to jump ahead and look good for extended stretches, I have no problems live betting them at -2.5 or -3. I have a hard time seeing such a young bucks team beating a Raptors whose core has a ton of playoff experience
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My only hesitation is that maybe the Bucks really are "this good" with their roster in its current place. With the current rotation (Middleton essentially replacing Parker and Brogdon healthy) the Bucks went 14-4 in March, and over half their wins were against teams with winning records. It's possible they've basically peaked and found the right construct for their roster and are a lot better than what anyone realizes. I knew they finished strong, but didn't realize it was THAT good down the stretch until I was just looking some stuff up.

Stop me before I start believing we'd have a shot vs Cleveland in the next round LOL.
 
mkess101 said:
My only hesitation is that maybe the Bucks really are "this good" with their roster in its current place. With the current rotation (Middleton essentially replacing Parker and Brogdon healthy) the Bucks went 14-4 in March, and over half their wins were against teams with winning records. It's possible they've basically peaked and found the right construct for their roster and are a lot better than what anyone realizes. I knew they finished strong, but didn't realize it was THAT good down the stretch until I was just looking some stuff up.

Stop me before I start believing we'd have a shot vs Cleveland in the next round LOL.
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Haha yeah let's calm down a bit. I like the adjustments the Raptors made in their starting line up. Should be a good game

But man, too much defense
 
Houston Astros (-114) risk 1.14u

Los Angeles Dodgers (-120) risk: 1.2u

Los Angeles Angels (-155) risk: 1u
 
This Raptors/Bucks game is too low scoring to lay points either way. Probably not gonna live bet it unless I can get Raptors over +150 and even then I might just throw another half a unit on what I already have

Side note: Derozans game isn't analytically great but man he's got some beautiful moves
 
iGnP said:
This Raptors/Bucks game is too low scoring to lay points either way. Probably not gonna live bet it unless I can get Raptors over +150 and even then I might just throw another half a unit on what I already have

Side note: Derozans game isn't analytically great but man he's got some beautiful moves
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If he was 2-3" taller he'd be pretty much unstoppable. As it is he's one of the 10 best offensive wing players in the league.
 
mkess101 said:
If he was 2-3" taller he'd be pretty much unstoppable. As it is he's one of the 10 best offensive wing players in the league.
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Is there any other shooting guard that you'd take over him?
 
iGnP said:
Is there any other shooting guard that you'd take over him?
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Maybe not. The NBA is kinda weird now from a positional standpoint as guys like Harden are still called "shooting guards" but in reality he's quite obviously a PG. I tend to lump wing players together now (shooting guards and small forwards) because the traditional roles seem to apply less than they used to. Stretch 4's and even stretch 5's and SF's that actually play PG more than forward.

To answer your question, as a "pure" SG, DeRozan may be the best. Beal maybe the only other one that can score like he can off the top of my head.
 
mkess101 said:
Maybe not. The NBA is kinda weird now from a positional standpoint as guys like Harden are still called "shooting guards" but in reality he's quite obviously a PG. I tend to lump wing players together now (shooting guards and small forwards) because the traditional roles seem to apply less than they used to. Stretch 4's and even stretch 5's and SF's that actually play PG more than forward.

To answer your question, as a "pure" SG, DeRozan may be the best. Beal maybe the only other one that can score like he can off the top of my head.
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Forgot about Beal. I like beal a lot
 
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