General MMA Discussion & Future Lines - August, 2017

LFA 18: Aguilar vs. Rader
August 4th, 2017
FireLake Arena| Shawnee, Oklahoma
9:00 PM ET - AXS TV

Main Event | Featherweight Title | 145lbs
Justin Rader +140
Kevin Aguilar -180

Co-Main Event | Middleweight | 185lbs
Brendan Allen +125
Chris Harris -165

Main Card | Catchweight | 130bs
Tyler Shinn +185
Chris Kelades -265

Main Card | Welterweight | 170bs
Chauncey Foxworth +235
Braden Smith -315

---

definitely taking rader. he impressed me a bunch last fight.
-grappling edge
-good volume (tho if it was strictly kickboxing you'd have to probably favor aguilar)
-hometown

not sure on the other 3. i figured shinn was gonna be the dog, not sure if this is high enough. he is the local guy tho and they're both grapplers.. hrmm, idk.

also local: braden smith.. who looked like 6+" taller than foxworth at weighins.. he's very young, but think he has a huge grappling edge if he can get it there. -- i wanted way cheaper so pass..

not sure on allen-harris. i told myself i'd prolly take either guy if +150 or higher, but i favored harris slightly.. so yea, the line is kinda perfectly set IMO
 
took 1.25u (max) rader +140, passing on the rest for now
 
I'm betting against Rader here. I think he's gonna gas bad shooting for takedowns and it's 5 rounds. I might be wrong. I've only watched like two of aguilar's fights but he went 5 rounds not long ago. Got him @ -145. EZ moved the line my way. I think they are both 135ers tbh.

I like all favs but not sure how to play em.
 
I just put a unit on all the dogs... BOL to me :)
 
I actually think Aguilar is the best line of the weekend - not kidding. This is coming from someone who advocated people to play Rader last time. He's just not getting his takedowns easily. It's no secret that he's great on the ground, but so far, it's mainly been with positioning and control. Over 5 rounds, I think he's going to have a rough time. He's so hittable standing too. Maybe I'm overestimating Aguilar though.
 
The only fight that I haven't played is Allen/Harris. Leaning towards the dog there. I'm on favs besides that.
 
any intel on shinn? i never rated kelades very highly.
 
EzFlyer said:
you goin down!
Click to expand...

Hey didn't me and @Oblivian call you out for fading that random local guy fighting named Rader jk.


I just watched Damon Jackson vs Kevin Aguilar on YouTube while taking a shit at work m8.

Damon Jackson is a real 145er and big for the weight class with okay wrestling. He couldn't consistently out wrestle Rader. I don't see small featherweight Rader doing it either.
Rader is a beast on the ground so if he does get him down it could be trouble.

Added some more on Aguilar in a parlay with Brenan.
 
You're making me second guess myself. I think it's a close fight.
 
FYI, James Lynch's YouTube page almost always has multiple interviews with fighters on the AXS TV cards and smaller promotions as well as the UFC and other majors. I consider them mandatory viewing before every LFA and CES card that doesn't otherwise have a lot of media coverage. Chris Kelades for example hasn't fought in a long while even though he has been training as a couple fights fell through, but he took this one on two weeks notice while he was preparing for a different fight in a few weeks. That's the reason for the 130 pound catchweight. He sounded confident though. Most of the other main card fighters have interviews there as well.

https://www.youtube.com/user/lynchonsports/videos
 
JimGunn said:
FYI, James Lynch's YouTube page almost always has multiple interviews with fighters on the AXS TV cards and smaller promotions as well as the UFC and other majors. I consider them mandatory viewing before every LFA and CES card that doesn't otherwise have a lot of media coverage. Chris Kelades for example hasn't fought in a long while even though he has been training as a couple fights fell through, but he took this one on two weeks notice while he was preparing for a different fight in a few weeks. That's the reason for the 130 pound catchweight. He sounded confident though. Most of the other main card fighters have interviews there as well.

https://www.youtube.com/user/lynchonsports/videos
Click to expand...

James Lynch has some of the most useful interviews around, you can get a lot of good information from them.
 
I've been following Rader for a while. Honestly, I thought he'd end up being better than he has. His top game is really good. Solid grappling like that can normally make you really excel at the top level. I'm just not seeing the improvements in takedowns and striking. His striking defense is really bad and he's flinchy. I think he'd get away with more if he snagged submissions. I just don't see him grabbing takedowns enough in a 5 rounder. Honestly, I'd still favor Aguilar in a 3 rounder too.
 
Kelades is good at pressure and scrambles, but has mediocre wrestling. Fired from ufc, lay off, left ATT, age, short notice etc

Shinn pushes hard for takedowns and is active on the ground. He was usually the smaller guy but moved to the125 for that fight.

Interesting, who was the original opponent for Shinn and who Kelades was supposed to fight in September.
 
sdy said:
who Kelades was supposed to fight in September.
Click to expand...

Found this
"But his luck changed when he landed the fight with Shinn and another scheduled bout against Alberta's Keegan Oliver at a card in Medicine Hat on Sept. 9. That wil be on the Fight Network in Canada."
6-5 Bantamweight.
 
looks like shinn has trained at black house in the past, not sure if he's still there. also training bjj with ortega which is good. former osu college wrestler.

also going down to 125 for the first time, which looks like his natural weight class for a 5'5 guy. plus he should be prime at 30 unlike kelades at 36 which is old for a flyweight.

no clue what happens in this grappler fight but i'm going to take a stab on shinn +175. i think former ufc fighters tend to get undeserved juice when they go onto other organisations, could be the same here.
 
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