Boxing Discussion III

[mkess101]

Conor has pulled some magic from his ass so many times but its hard to see how he has anything other than 1% chance of beating probably the greteast defensive boxer ever and probably the greatest talent of his generation. He does have size and a nasty left straight that could land though. IMO it would be the greatest upset in combat history and I actually hope he pulls it off somehow even then though lol.

Yeah Floyd -1000 Conor +650, which is I think around 13% winning probability for Conor if my math is correct. Conor's made enough of a name for himself that I guess the books believe this is how the betting public sees it. The problem is that even though I put Conor's odds around 5%, I'm tying up $ for a fight that probably doesn't happen anyway.

 

[null]

In the unlikely event this Conor/Floyd fight gets officially announced and a date set I'll consider throwing a few shekels on it then and only then.

 

[quincy k]

i am a big david lemuiex fan but there is no way i am going to pass up curtis stevens at +350 in new york.

 

[null]

I love Toe-to-Toe Tuesdays! Nguyen actually closed at +2000 on 5D!

 

[timmyclax22]

I love Toe-to-Toe Tuesdays! Nguyen actually closed at +2000 on 5D!

That's awesome! Wish I threw a flyer on him.

 

[pytycrys]

What about Harley Benn-Dominik Zubko? The latter one has odds of +2100. Meanwhile, it is only Benn's debut and Zubko has defeated two debuting guys, losing other two bouts and scoring a draw.
It's worth a stab at +2100

 

[lawmills2006]

What about Harley Benn-Dominik Zubko? The latter one has odds of +2100. Meanwhile, it is only Benn's debut and Zubko has defeated two debuting guys, losing other two bouts and scoring a draw.
It's worth a stab at +2100

Man, reading up on Harley, he's only fought a few white collar boxing events, and didn't even start boxing until he was 15? So many red flags.

 

[pytycrys]

Yeah, I'm hitting that small, 0.3u.
Some small stabs on the next few days as well :
0.4u on Berridge +1200 , Flores + 650
0.2u on Poxton +950, Sosa +2200

 

[quincy k]

Lots of interesting bouts coming up next week. So far I made a small play on former long time super middleweight champion Lucian Bute as a +280 underdog against the undefeated Eleider Alvarez in Quebec City Friday evening. They're both transplanted foreigners living in La Belle Province despite Bute being more identified as a Quebec resident. Bute has much more pro experience and fought much better competition than Alvarez and has been very competitive even at this late stage of his career. I got my money back when he went to a controversial draw against Badou Jack last year and he held his own against James DeGale in 2015 on the way to losing a wide UD. Bute never served much of a suspension for testing positive for Ostarine after the Jack fight where he looked suspiciously energetic even in the late rounds for a 36 year old man. One could look at that this two different ways as it may mean he's off the sauce and clean or cynically I'll suggest he could be cycling better so as to not get caught this time. This fight is also apparently taking place at light heavyweight, so that's perhaps not Bute's optimal weight class. But he's actually taller than Alvarez and only giving up 3½ inches in reach, plus he has the southpaw advantage. In summary, I like him for a small play at this price as this is by far the best fighter that Alvarez has ever faced and But will most likely have the crowd behind him.

Lucian Bute (+280) vs Eleider Alvarez $40.00 for $112.00

great bet. bute is down to +185.

im going to live bet alvarez as im hoping bute is going to win the fist part of the fight before alvarezs size and strength takes over.

no peds and moving up in weight along with five tough fights in his last six, i think lucien could get old overnight here and beaten up

 

[LEMONZEST]

I love Toe-to-Toe Tuesdays! Nguyen actually closed at +2000 on 5D!

Damn thanks for reminding me. I made 200 on my 10 bet. Ty Jim you the man!!!

 

[null]

great bet. bute is down to +185.

im going to live bet alvarez as im hoping bute is going to win the fist part of the fight before alvarezs size and strength takes over.

no peds and moving up in weight along with five tough fights in his last six, i think lucien could get old overnight here and beaten up

Bute looks taller for sure and perhaps bigger or comparably sized in these face off photos at least.

 

[quincy k]

i generally stay away from guys coming off a ko loss but if dominiks punch resistance is still solid he has a good shot at beating the izuagbe especially if this version shows up.




julius hadnt fought in a year and a half and had already been stopped six time prior

 

[quincy k]

Bute looks taller for sure and perhaps bigger or comparably sized in these face off photos at least.

bute has fougt two legit 175s, grachev(at 168) and pascal, and both times he was limited to throwing 35 punches a round.

lucien is pobably going to test clean for this fight and coming off five tough fights in his last six, at 36, against a legit 175 fighter in his prime, he is probably going to statistically lose this fight and will need the judges to help him win

 

[null]

bute has fougt two legit 175s, grachev(at 168) and pascal, and both times he was limited to throwing 35 punches a round.

lucien is pobably going to test clean for this fight and coming off five tough fights in his last six, at 36, against a legit 175 fighter in his prime, he is probably going to statistically lose this fight and will need the judges to help him win

Not sure if Bute will test clean or not. I didn't listen to this whole interview, but the headline makes it seem like there might not be VADA testing for this bout in Quebec tomorrow evening. In any case it seems like I got the peak price at +280 or close to it for Bute, for a smallish play, so we'll see what happens.

 

[null]

I've been killing it with the underdogs this year so I'm mostly sticking with that this weekend. My action so far, and I'm looking to maybe add a Hurd by KO/TKO prop as well:

Lucian Bute (+280) vs Eleider Alvarez $40.00 for $112.00

Gerald Washington (+1300) vs Deontay Wilder $50.00 for $650.00
Gerald Washington wins in round 1-3 (+7000) ~$11.95 for ~$836.50

Jarrett Hurd (-145) vs Tony Harrison ~$89.63 for ~$61.81

Dominic Breazeale (+215) vs Izuagbe Ugonoh $50.00 for $107.50

 

[null]

Also added a little stab on Zubko based on what pytycrys said. I just read an article about this, Harley is Nigel Benn's estranged 20 year old son from his first marriage with no real amateur experience who, unlike his half brother Conor hasn't been getting the benefit of his dad's championship experience and training. Worth a fade at this price.

Dominik Zubko (+1700) vs Harley Benn ~$29.88 for ~$507.88

 

[OneWarrior1]

Wilder ain't losing. Keep it up with the dog run tho!

 

[quincy k]

Not sure if Bute will test clean or not. I didn't listen to this whole interview, but the headline makes it seem like there might not be VADA testing for this bout in Quebec tomorrow evening. In any case it seems like I got the peak price at +280 or close to it for Bute, for a smallish play, so we'll see what happens.

im pretty sure canada tests their fighters and bute wont risk getting caught twice. he ould probably face a long ban that would essentially retire him along with the public humiliation

http://boxingontario.com/safe-sport/anti-doping-program/

 

[null]

im pretty sure canada tests their fighters and bute wont risk getting caught twice. he ould probably face a long ban that would essentially retire him along with the public humiliation

http://boxingontario.com/safe-sport/anti-doping-program/

The bout's in Quebec, not Ontario. Not sure if Bute even served any kind of suspension after the last fight, which was also in Quebec less than a year ago. This is kind of like a Bellator situation, as opposed to the UFC. They make it sound like they have some kind of PED rules, but it's not strict third party like USADA and we don't know exactly how evenly it's all applied so it's always a little murky to even those who try to figure it out.

 

[null]

One more play on the main event of the BoxNation card Friday afternoon. I don't know these guys from previous bouts but BoxRec capping shows Harris sure has a lot of KOs for a tiny flyweight!

Jay Harris (-147) vs Thomas Essomba ~$89.63 for ~$60.97
Jay Harris wins inside distance (+299) $35.00 for $104.65