Boxing Discussion III | Page 99

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Sep 15, 2016.

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  1. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Sham5916910
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    Matthews has a lot of stoppage losses but he shored up his defence in recent years. Campbell stopped him last time to the body and Campbell is a big puncher. Where are you seeing 5/2 tho? I'm sure i looked last night on Ladbrokes and it was 11/8. Is that unanimous?
     
    #1961
  2. CR0W ʙᴏxɪɴɢ

    CR0W
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    Ohara TKO is my pick. Between rounds 4-6 @ 5.00 is tempting me.
     
    #1962
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  3. gcoogan1 White Belt

    gcoogan1
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    i saw it on Paddy Power last night, i know derry has stoppage losses just dont think davies is big enough puncher to expose it. campbells body shots were lethal thst night
     
    #1963
  4. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Sham5916910
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    I saw Ohara's last fight and wasn't that impressed but he has 11 wins itd from 14.
     
    #1964
  5. gcoogan1 White Belt

    gcoogan1
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    ohara has fought a horrific level of opponent, which is what Eddie hearn likes to do, lots of his fights are pretty unimpressive to be honest
     
    #1965
  6. CR0W ʙᴏxɪɴɢ

    CR0W
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    I think that's quite unfair, of course some fighters get padded up a bit but he's given some young prospects some very tough fights early in their career too. Giving Charlie Edwards a very big step up against John Riel Casimero only 8 fights into his pro career which he lost but gained a huge amount of experience from the fight.

    As I said, some do get favourable fights, no doubt, but that happens all over the world. But Hearn has been vocal in the past about giving young prospects tougher fights to see if they are cut out for the top.
     
    #1966
  7. BluntTrauma21 SpottieOttieDopaliscious

    BluntTrauma21
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    Gonna end up having over 2u on Danny this weekend. Think he's got some really nice value here, especially if he gets that hook to start landing downstairs where Thurman seems to be a bit vulnerable. Even if he doesn't he should have some good opportunities to land the counter hook upstairs and keep Keith honest.

    I've been pretty critical of Garcia recently because of his shitty opposition for the most part as of late, but I do think the guy is ready to take on the upper echelon at 147 now. He also seems to really dislike Thurman, he sounds like he's really pissed and he rarely shows much emotion, that's his psycho father's job most of the time. I think this is a good thing, I don't think either is going to be able to outbox the other and the bad blood probably adds even more to assumption that these two are gonna have some harsh exchanges in the pocket. I actually think Danny could have an advantage trading b/c of that hook he always seems to land, plus Danny's chin has always been strong, Matthysse was at 140 but that man can punch and Danny took all of his best shots.

    I think the fact that he hasn't really looked very good against subpar fighters is a good thing betting wise, that's why I think Danny's line is a bit out of hand, he's the type of guy to fight to the level of his comp and I think he steps up against Keith and gives it all he's got. One issue for me is his gastank, not sure how he'll hold up in a hard 12rder against a guy of Thurman's caliber, but I think he'll probably be okay. Either way, definitely a dog or pass type of fight for me.

    This is a really fun fight between two young and skilled undefeated fighters. I think Danny's got solid value anywhere in the high +1xx's or better. 2.3u on Garcia at various prices, might up it closer to 3u if I'm feeling it, not sure yet.
     
    #1967
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  8. wack3d Silver Belt

    wack3d
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    thanks for the breakdown. tailed +200 on 5d now
     
    #1968
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  9. quincy k Green Belt

    quincy k
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    people forget that thurman stopped both diaz and chaves with body shots.

    like the amir khan fight, i think the speed of thurman is going to win the first five or six rounds and could provide a lb opportunity. imo, garcia is still untested at 147(his best win against a rg who had been in three consecutive wars) even more so after seeing peterson, who wouldve beat danny if he started earlier, did not look all that good against a guy who statistically did not beat shane mosely.

    dbe is the promoter so thurman could also get te benefit of the doubt should the fight go to the cards
     
    #1969
  10. quincy k Green Belt

    quincy k
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  11. JimGunn Red Belt

    JimGunn
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    I like the value on the dogs in both of these bouts:

    Paul Malignaggi (+205) vs Sam Eggington $100.00 for $205.00
    Danny Garcia (+200) vs Keith Thurman $100.00 for $200.00
     
    #1971
  12. JimGunn Red Belt

    JimGunn
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    Also will be looking for the point spread when it gets released with Garcia + points as I think it will be close.
     
    #1972
  13. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

    LEMONZEST
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    tailed both for 1u. Hey quick question. In playing huge dogs in boxing like in the +900 - +2000 range are you mainly looking at hitting the Heavyweights?

    It seems to me that upsets are more likely to occur at the heavier weight classes. Whereas if you have a featherweight that is +1000 it is pretty hard to hit that upset. What you think?
     
    #1973
  14. JimGunn Red Belt

    JimGunn
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    That's the conventional wisdom, but my biggest upset by far this year was featherweight Dat Nguyen in a 126 pound bout and he got the TKO to cash at +1700.
     
    #1974
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  15. JimGunn Red Belt

    JimGunn
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    I believe the line is off on this fight on the Thurman/Garcia undercard too. Fonfara is coming off a brutal KO loss nine months ago by Joe Smith Jr. who then knocked Bernard Hopkins out of the ring and out of the sport. He also switched trainers to Virgil Hunter and this is his first bout with a new trainer, something that I do not think is an advantage. Dawson is a southpaw and has only lost to top competition, just like Fonfara. I might be talking myself into a lot of underdogs this weekend, but it's been working for me, so I'm rolling with this and pseudo-hedging my play with the over in this ten round bout.

    Chad Dawson (+385) vs Andrzej Fonfara $100.00 for $385.00
    Chad Dawson/Andrzej Fonfara Over 8½ (-130) $65.00 for $50.00
     
    #1975
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  16. pytycrys Orange Belt

    pytycrys
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    Tailed all your underdogs for this weekend with 1u. Got Dawson +430 at Marathonbet.
    Good luck to us all and thank you for your picks!
     
    #1976
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  17. lawmills2006 Purple Belt

    lawmills2006
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    Missed out last weeks plays, not missing this week. This thread is like a gold mine at times!

    Really want to play Bellew, but just think that price still isnt good enough to play......
     
    #1977
  18. timmyclax22 Blue Belt

    timmyclax22
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    Awesome line on Dawson! I'm on him at +335 hoping he can somehow regain his form from a few years ago. We'll see.
     
    #1978
  19. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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