Does anybody have a case for Fedor winning this fight?
Sonnen is a good dog bet. He should be pretty determined after his last fight...
Condensed TLDR version..
First off, Matt Mitrione isn't called "Meathead" for irony. ..but as a fighter — which is all I'm concerned with — I do believe that he is riding the shot bus to training camp.
Specifically, as a bettor, his fight I.Q. is wholly disconcerting. .. you never know what to expect with him. Sometimes he will use his athleticism and fundamentals to success while in other times he just throws hands like a fucking drunken caveman. type of behavior cannot be trusted with your money as a favorite.
Let's just examine his inaugural BELLATOR appearance. Vs. unranked punching bag Carl Seumanutafa we have Meathead go full Meathead and nearly lose the fight. Seumanutafa had MH in BIG trouble and came within a hairsbreadth of winning that fight.
Now, while Fedor is a decade past his prime but I'd submit that it's as much a problem of Roy Nelson who flatlined Mitrione and more of a threat than the mediocre Seumanutafa who nearly did the same.
Fedor still retains quite a bit of his blinding hand speed and he certainly retains the massive power ...he's also the far better grappler by far.
A lot of people write Fedor off because of the Fabio Maldonado performance, but I actually saw a silver lining in that ominously dark cloud. Most people would have given up but he showed resolve. Fedor demonstrated that he is still quite fit..
...a fighter must be in excellent physical condition to withstand five minutes straight of this and recover to even be competitive.
Most noteworthy here though was Fedor's fight intelligence. He recognized that Maldonado's only real chance to win was to catch him in the pocket with a short hook. Ergo, the crafty veteran switched up tactics to an "all the way in, or all the way out" approach ... stinging Fabio with jabs at range then dart into the pocket and rip off knees to the midsection.
...the only time Fedor was absolutely and inarguably outclassed was against Bigfoot ... who at the time was likely mixing a bit of "Gummy Bear juice" in with his protein shakes ...
Fedor still possesses good speed and those sledgehammer hands. Additionally, his Sambo credentials could see him getting that patented body lock TD from the clinch if they tie up.
Combine all those factors with Mitrione fight IQ .. Fedor can pull off the upset. ..
Mitrione keeps his hands dangling at his waist. ...can you really count on those 38-year-old reflexes to make their way back up to protect his chin before Fedor touches it?
It's the Russians ability to withstand a bomb the most concerns me. However I do believe that he has a path to victory