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Your Prediction, Which GOP establishment candidate will drop out next.

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by NelmarksGhost, Feb 14, 2016.

  1. NelmarksGhost Brown Belt

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    Which of the following 3 Republican "establishment lane" candidates will be next to suspend his campaign?

    Kasich
    Rubio
    Bush

    Please do not include other candidates. This is not a question of who will win the election, only a question of who will next quit the race for the "establishment lane" of the GOP primary.

    My pick is Rubio.
     
  2. Tekk Brown Belt

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    Kasich


    [​IMG]
     
  3. Kalmyk Fighter Yellow Card Yellow Card

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    Def. won't be Rubio.

    Seems like Bush has a strong grudge against Rubio so he might just stay in out of spite. Otherwise it seems like all the Super PACs are going to go to Rubio if Jeb bombs again in S. Carolina.

    My guess is that both Kasich and Jeb hold on 'till Super Tuesdy and Ben Carson is the only guy that will drop out before that if he has a poor showing.

    But to answer your question, I think Jeb Bush is the weakest candidate here but Kasich has the least amount of backing.

    Jeb will probably have enough resources to keep going for a while but Kasich's Super PAC ank will run dry soon.
     
  4. NelmarksGhost Brown Belt

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    So, you're picking Kasich to drop next?
     
  5. Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog Platinum Member

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    Kasich, definitely. Not for a while, though. I still think Rubio is less than 50/50 to win but more likely than any other candidate (that is, Cruz + Trump's chances are less than Rubio's but more than even). Bush and Kasich have no chance, but there's too much money on Bush for him to give up without a serious fight.
     
  6. Kalmyk Fighter Yellow Card Yellow Card

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    yeah I mean... if I had to pick and the OP is looking for a concrete answer.

    He put all his $$ in NH and now his campaign funds are running dry.

    Doesn't seem like S. Carolina is a state that favors moderates so if he bombs in this state, as expected- there's no reason to back him.
     
  7. Kalmyk Fighter Yellow Card Yellow Card

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    imo Rubio is the Mitt Romney of the 2016 race, Ted Cruz is Newt Gingrich and Trump is the game-changing wildcard.

    Ben Carson = Herman Cain
     
  8. NelmarksGhost Brown Belt

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    = token black candidate
     
  9. Forkfoot Red Belt

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    I'm surprised Kasich is still in the race at all.
     
  10. NelmarksGhost Brown Belt

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    Hulk Hogan entering the contest wouldn't surprise me at this point. Don't blink.
     
  11. Kalmyk Fighter Yellow Card Yellow Card

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    that + he's a Washington outsider and is campaigning on strong (social+economic) Conservative values.
     
  12. Anung Un Rama Idol of Millions Platinum Member

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    Gotta be Kasich. He must be struggling to compete (financially) in SC as it is.
     
  13. NelmarksGhost Brown Belt

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    Damn. Everyone picking Kasich. I still think Rubio quits after Bush beats him in the southern states.
     
  14. SODACKER Silver Belt

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    It's odd that rubio is even in this discussion little less your pick. Unless something crazy happens he is going to be the establishment pick. Sure he set himself back with the debate but he did well in Iowa and good enough in NH. Now that we get to real states I believe he will get the ball really rolling and truly get the establishment fully behind him. Kasich is most likely won't make it to super Tuesday and Bush will after super Tuesday.
     
  15. ncordless Red Belt

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    A bet on Rubio is a bet that he effs it up again. Not unreasonable given his reputation. But i think Kasich folds first for lack of money
     
  16. NelmarksGhost Brown Belt

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    My thinking is that Kasich has already committed to the later contests in the northern states. He's in Michigan right now. Bush and Rubio will have their showdown in the southern states. One of them will be finished afterward.

    Unless Rubio outright wins multiple states by the end of Super Tuesday Bush will outlast him. It doesn't matter if Rubio is getting 3rd and Jeb 4th. The establishment has already spent to much money on him to switch unless Rubio suddenly surges, which I doubt since Trump and Cruz aren't going anywhere.
     
  17. Tekk Brown Belt

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    Apparently republican insiders were aware of Rubios tendency to get easily rattled when going off message. Christie called him out on it ,then he did the same thing the next day. Many of his backers just gave up on him.
     
  18. NelmarksGhost Brown Belt

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    Rubio is basically an actor playing a politician.
     
  19. MicroBrew Titanium Belt

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    Kasich.
     

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