Yoel has 3 ways to win. Israel has one.

kimocomplex said:
i hope Yoel takes him down

the rest will handle itself

but on the feet, Israel has a real chance to get the KO
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How often does he seek takedowns? I know he takes them if the opportunity presents itself, but he doesn't (often? ever?) chase them. It takes too much energy (maybe why Gastelum didn't either).

And since Israel doesn't seek out clinches, I don't see many opportunities presenting themselves.
 
I counted 4 ways. Stool, watergate, fence grab and PED
 
Yoel has been KO'd before so that's an option too
 
winkydinks said:
Romero can win by knockout, submission, or decision.

Israel can win by decision.

Yoel isn't getting knocked out, and I'll do an av bet with anyone convinced otherwise. Like it or not, Izzy is a volume striker. I know he knocked out Whittaker and kind of knocked out Brunson, but those seem to be pretty chinny guys who were both favorable match ups for Izzy. Silva stood there, smiled, and let the dude punch him in the face. The dude has a chin. Gastelum was hurt for the entire 5th, and Izzy still couldn't put him away. The dude has a chin. Romero on the other hand, has never been finished in the UFC, and only once in his career...nine years ago. We saw him eat bombs from Costa, whose power dwarfs Izzy's. I would say that Izzy could put him away with a head kick. The problem with that however, is that Izzy only has one head kick knockout in his 18 fight mma career. Yoel isn't going to be his second.

It's obvious that the Cuban isn't getting submitted.

What I'm saying is that Izzy needs to bank at least 2 of the first three rounds. If he doesn't, he's fucked. Yoel will be free to go hunting, and will finish him in the 4th or 5th. The Cuban's game plan is much more flexible.
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If you don't think Adesanya can TKO Romero then you don't know anything about MMA.
 
GoshiShun17 said:
This is one of the worst fight analysis I've read here. Yoel is the person with only one way to win and he knows it. He and his team believe there is a hole in Izzy's game that they can exploit.

If Yoel doesn't catch and hurt Israel bad, he likely gets out struck for 5 rounds if not TKOed. Yoel also has no submission victories and has shown no top game in his career really.
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It's spectacularly bad.
 
This fight perplexes me, the most decorated and explosive wrestler in MMA history is a huge underdog against a skinny kickboxer from New Zealand?

Yoel has a habit of not using his wrestling, but this is mostly because he's used to fighting guys with great wrestling defense and he's wary of gassing out with takedown attempts. But against Izzy, why not just take him down?

The Yoel/Machida matchup was very similar to this fight and that fight was over seconds after yoel decided to take it to the Mat, you don't think that's in his mind?
 
GoshiShun17 said:
Yoel also has no submission victories and has shown no top game in his career really.
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Machida would disagree:

giphy.gif


And Machida was a better, more elusive striker with a more proven ground game than Izzy.
 
Neither man will win by submission, don't be ridiculous. Romero's never even gone for a submission in his UFC/SF career.
 
I just pray to gay Jesus to let Romero win the belt just one time so I can say we have a Cuban champ. I don’t care if he gets KOd on his first title defense.....I’ll be happy. Half of Masvidal would also be cool
 
MakeSherdogGreatAgain said:
Yoel is over 40. I'm not saying he's not tough to ko, but father time is undefeated. Kennedy almost had him out. I would say Israel is a better technical striker than Tim Kennedy. If Romero got off his stool right away when it was time to continue fighting against Kennedy, both their career trajectories might've been completely different.

The only part about your post I disagree with is that Yoel can't be knocked out. Anybody can be knocked out. The thing Yoel has going for him against Israel is his low, but explosive output. Israel can't counter if Yoel doesn't throw anything. And he's definitely not a volume guy.

Stylistically he's very difficult to ko, but that doesn't mean it can't happen.
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Whittaker ate 10 rounds of bombs from Romero, but couldn't last a round against Izzy. He actually got knocked out and saved by the bell in round 1, then finished again in round 2. Izzy can KO Romero for sure.
 
djacobox372 said:
Machida would disagree:

giphy.gif


And Machida was a better, more elusive striker with a more proven ground game than Izzy.
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Machida was certainly not a better striker than Israel. Don't be ridiculous. Machida's striking was above average and he was more evasive than he was elusive. In other words he did not engage AT ALL. His style would NEVER work against Adesanya.

Also the era that Machida rose to the top in was very behind in striking in general. Even still, Yoel did not show great top control there, he just hurt Machida BAD, as soon as they hit the mat.
 
MakeSherdogGreatAgain said:
In a sport where it's ok to hold onto your opponent's head and knee/punch/elbow them in the face, I hardly see how grabbing a glove should be illegal. If he grabbed his wrist, that's ok. Grab his glove, and all hell breaks loose and everyone cries foul. Makes no sense. He did break a rule, but it's a silly rule when you consider what's actually allowed.

Not getting off your stool is technically throwing in the towel. If a more strict ref were in charge of that contest, he might've called it just based off that.
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The problem is no one gives a shit how you interpret the rules. Grabbing the glove is an illegal move. Staying on the stool is too. Seems odd to point out one but not the other.
 
Iron chins can eventually get cracked. Not saying it will definitely happen though.
 
Well technically Israel has 4 ways to win, not 1.

Win by KO/TKO
Win by submission
Win by decision
Win by Yoel DQ
 
I put money on Yoel and I still think Izzy could finish him
 
Now while the bookies odds aren't always right ibut in terms of odds its.... Adesanya to win by KO/TKO > Adesanya to win on points > Yoel by TKO/KO > Yoel points > Yoel sub > Adesanya sub.
So the majority of people betting on the fight don't agree with the TS.

The odds seem about right to me and Adesanya is the -250 favourite vs Romero +205.
 
Ohhh how I wish old Yoel would knock him the fuck out. Prolly wont happen tho.
 
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