International Why does China want Taiwan? They have their own domino theory.

[Aegon Spengler]

I see a plenty of threads on China and Taiwan popping up here from time to time. I think most of the War Room, right wing or left wing, are not sympathetic to China's objective of taking over Taiwan. I think that is a good instinct.

This professor, Steve Tsang, is the Head of the School of Contemporary Chinese Studies at the University of London. War Room regulars might find these lectures on China and Taiwanese history fascinating, I know I did. I timestamped the parts where he talks about Taiwan and why it sits at the center of both U.S. and Chinese strategy in the Pacific.





Cliff notes:

Historically, from the 1920's to the 1940s, the loudest advocate for the impendence of Taiwan was The Chinese Community Party. At the "6th Chinese Community Party Congress" in Moscow, in the summer of 1928, Taiwan was a Japanese colony. The official position of the CCP was that the Taiwanese were their own separate people and should be recognized as an independent nation.

Taiwan has never been governed by the Chinese Communist Party.

The indigenous people of Taiwan are not Chinese according to anthropologists.

At the San Francisco peace conference of 1951 Taiwan was recognized as "China", as lead by Chang Kai-Shek, creating some confusion.

The empire on the Chinese mainland did not claim Taiwan until the 17th century. According to Tsang, the Manchu/Qing empire was not Chinese when it conquered China proper. Before the Qing empire, which some historians argue was not "Han-Chinese", the Chinese government did not claim Taiwan. It was seen as an independent tributary like Korea. And even under the Qing, Taiwan was considered a colony.

They want to take Taiwan because the agreement the USA signed with them has very similar wording to the treaty agreements the USA has with South Korea, Japan, and their other allies in the Pacific. If China can take Taiwan they believe those allies will lose confidence in their security agreements with the USA, opening the door for China to sign agreements with those countries that will remove the USA from the pacific and isolate Asia from western influence.

Taiwan is the first domino to fall, once it goes, the rest of the pacific goes with it.

 

[SandisLL]

From imperialistic point more land = always better.

From financial point: if they will manage to capture intanct factories in good condition it might be big profit for them.
However for this they needs factories intact.

Therefore most likley will opt for naval blockade and force surround without initial direct fast landing attempts.

 

[Aegon Spengler]

From imperialistic point more land = always better.

From financial point: if they will manage to capture intanct factories in good condition it might be big profit for them.
However for this they needs factories intact.

Therefore most likley will opt for naval blockade and force surround without initial direct fast landing attempts.

It is a broader strategy. They believe if the USA can be dislodged from Taiwan their other allies in the pacific will lose faith. Then China can dominate trade with the "economic miracle" states (South Korea, Japan, etc) and isolate the Pacific from the west.

 

[flektarn]

I don't find his arguments compelling. Korea and japan have some of the highest anti-chinese sentiment in the world. Dislodging Taiwan doesn't mean those countries are going to run with opens arms to china for security guarantees that aren't worth the paper they're written on.

 

[MetalMilitia]

I see a plenty of threads on China and Taiwan popping up here from time to time. I think most of the War Room, right wing or left wing, are not sympathetic to China's objective of taking over Taiwan. I think that is a good instinct.

This professor, Steve Tsang, is the Head of the School of Contemporary Chinese Studies at the University of London. War Room regulars might find these lectures on China and Taiwanese history fascinating, I know I did. I timestamped the parts where he talks about Taiwan and why it sits at the center of both U.S. and Chinese strategy in the Pacific.





Cliff notes:

Historically, from the 1920's to the 1940s, the loudest advocate for the impendence of Taiwan was The Chinese Community Party. At the "6th Chinese Community Party Congress" in Moscow, in the summer of 1928, Taiwan was a Japanese colony. The official position of the CCP was that the Taiwanese were their own separate people and should be recognized as an independent nation.

Taiwan has never been governed by the Chinese Communist Party.

The indigenous people of Taiwan are not Chinese according to anthropologists.

At the San Francisco peace conference of 1951 Taiwan was recognized as "China", as lead by Chang Kai-Shek, creating some confusion.

The empire on the Chinese mainland did not claim Taiwan until the 17th century. According to Tsang, the Manchu/Qing empire was not Chinese when it conquered China proper. Before the Qing empire, which some historians argue was not "Han-Chinese", the Chinese government did not claim Taiwan. It was seen as an independent tributary like Korea. And even under the Qing, Taiwan was considered a colony.

They want to take Taiwan because the agreement the USA signed with them has very similar wording to the treaty agreements the USA has with South Korea, Japan, and their other allies in the Pacific. If China can take Taiwan they believe those allies will lose confidence in their security agreements with the USA, opening the door for China to sign agreements with those countries that will remove the USA from the pacific and isolate Asia from western influence.

Taiwan is the first domino to fall, once it goes, the rest of the pacific goes with it.

This is a weak area for me, so I'll just state that I don't know much -- just what I see as fuckin' "observation" ...

Funny how the CCP used to say Taiwan should be independent -- until they realized it’s a shiny island full of fuckin' microchips and geopolitical leverage -- ain't it?

Suddenly it’s “ancient sacred homeland” -- like a drunk ex claiming they left their hoodie there once.

Taiwan’s never been ruled by the CCP (correct me if I be wrong) -- but now they want it because it makes their dicks look bigger in the pacific and scares Japan and South Korea into a "kiss the ring, bitch" kinda thing. BTW -- their PP's will remain small -- so small.

It ain’t about history -- it’s about power, silicon, and who gets to boss the neighborhood really -- and it's escalatin' rather quickly...

Taiwan on 'high alert' as China ENCIRCLES island & launches live-fire drills

TAIWAN’S armed forces are on “high alert” after China launched terrifying new military drills encircling the island. Xi Jinping ordered massive live-fire exercises simulating the …

www.the-sun.com

 

[Cid]

Cold war ended and the west started trading and building up the economies of autocratic shitholes because we were too stupid to realize it would result in another cold war.

Leaders of autocratic shitholes like China and Russia are under no idiotic illusion that we will be friends because of economic alliances. Our ways of life are diametrically opposed to one another. They don't hate us for our freedom. They're scared of it. It's the preeminent threat to their power. Say what you want about the cold war, we won it and we spread democracy like a plague during it.

Now that America looks weak we're seeing them becoming increasingly bolder in their geopolitical moves.

Which is the logical move for them to be making.

Meanwhile the free world is rapidly unwinding their geopolitical power as they get embarrassed by the third rate scrub Putin. Which will only embolden China.

Geopolitically this is really, really simple stuff. It's incredibly disappointing seeing so many western leaders living in a geopolitical fantasy land.

 

[Cid]

I don't find his arguments compelling. Korea and japan have some of the highest anti-chinese sentiment in the world. Dislodging Taiwan doesn't mean those countries are going to run with opens arms to china for security guarantees that aren't worth the paper they're written on.

China is much more likely to go with hybrid warfare against these countries in an attempt to undermine their democratic institutions while strengthening the bonds with other autocracies.

We're seeing Russia have an insane amount of success in it's hybrid warfare campaign against Europe and America right now and they're a bunch of broke ass alcoholic losers.

It's worrying that the country equivalent of Fetal Alcohol Syndrome has managed to get the "leader" of the free world to parrot their talking points. China isn't incompetent and they're significantly better resourced than bum Putin.

 

[johnsmithjohnson]

I see a plenty of threads on China and Taiwan popping up here from time to time. I think most of the War Room, right wing or left wing, are not sympathetic to China's objective of taking over Taiwan. I think that is a good instinct.

This professor, Steve Tsang, is the Head of the School of Contemporary Chinese Studies at the University of London. War Room regulars might find these lectures on China and Taiwanese history fascinating, I know I did. I timestamped the parts where he talks about Taiwan and why it sits at the center of both U.S. and Chinese strategy in the Pacific.





Cliff notes:

Historically, from the 1920's to the 1940s, the loudest advocate for the impendence of Taiwan was The Chinese Community Party. At the "6th Chinese Community Party Congress" in Moscow, in the summer of 1928, Taiwan was a Japanese colony. The official position of the CCP was that the Taiwanese were their own separate people and should be recognized as an independent nation.

Taiwan has never been governed by the Chinese Communist Party.

The indigenous people of Taiwan are not Chinese according to anthropologists.

At the San Francisco peace conference of 1951 Taiwan was recognized as "China", as lead by Chang Kai-Shek, creating some confusion.

The empire on the Chinese mainland did not claim Taiwan until the 17th century. According to Tsang, the Manchu/Qing empire was not Chinese when it conquered China proper. Before the Qing empire, which some historians argue was not "Han-Chinese", the Chinese government did not claim Taiwan. It was seen as an independent tributary like Korea. And even under the Qing, Taiwan was considered a colony.

They want to take Taiwan because the agreement the USA signed with them has very similar wording to the treaty agreements the USA has with South Korea, Japan, and their other allies in the Pacific. If China can take Taiwan they believe those allies will lose confidence in their security agreements with the USA, opening the door for China to sign agreements with those countries that will remove the USA from the pacific and isolate Asia from western influence.

Taiwan is the first domino to fall, once it goes, the rest of the pacific goes with it.

I don't see them have the logistics to carry that off and it's Taiwan. They probably have all kinds of chemicals and radioactive things. It's probably saber rattling and they need a reason to get naval money to siphon off. The Chinese tend to follow sun Tzu and slow slow quick set ups. Other than that just kind of a way to get some cash.
Overall most likely there will be gradual emigration out of it. The sea, rivers and crops are kind of wrecked. The next 5 years for them will determine the next 100 for them in my dumbass opinion. Its coming to a fracture point. Depends if xi really steps back eventually. If he doesn't it will tear itself apart.

 

[ricc505]

I can see why China wants Taiwan and why Taiwan and the US are against that. I'm too old and crippled to be sent to war and my kids are a long way off of being threatened with that too. As usual the UN will be absolutely useless in this issue. I hear Taiwan is currently encircled by Chinese military performing "war games"
Strategically the US standing with Taiwan makes sense, I'd like to see Japan and South Korea strengthening their military capabilities to better represent alliances in the area.

 

[johnsmithjohnson]

For fun look up how much food china has imported and exported vs population for 30 years. You'll get the idea. Look very recent.
It's all physics in the end.

 

[Aegon Spengler]

I don't find his arguments compelling. Korea and japan have some of the highest anti-chinese sentiment in the world. Dislodging Taiwan doesn't mean those countries are going to run with opens arms to china for security guarantees that aren't worth the paper they're written on.

The USA nuked Japan and now Japan is one of Americas strongest allies. Things can change pretty quickly when the strategic picture is altered.

In the lectures he doesn’t say that he agrees with this strategy, or that it will work, but that Shi Jinping has stated these are his intentions. It’s a part of a broader global strategy that also includes outreach to “the global south.”

And nobody said they would “run with open arms” - more like; who will defend them against China if the U.S. cannot be trusted?

 

[Unknown Pleasures]

Generally being aggressive in areas of the world folks are willing to contest for occupation is a mistake - whether it be Afghanistan, Ukraine or whatever. Generally baiting a country to invade and get into a quagmire is the smarter thing to do than participate in actual aggression.

China has a "make versus take" decision around the strategic value of Taiwan currently when it comes to semi-conductors -- a forced version of a make versus buy decision, where it seems obvious "make" is better option than "take". Not only could Taiwan destroy their semiconductor creation and tech capacity as a poison pill, but China would just be better off politically, reputationally, soft power wise to build their own industry in this space and continue to play their long game.

Secondly, is the "hole in the curtain" creation kind of thing for eastern expansion. Like again, it's going to be in anyone's interest for China (especially there own) to invade Japan, Philiipines or whomever else.

I don't assign high probability to this either.

The greater likelihood here is just arms MAD build ups like the cold war as a distraction tool for each of the nation's elite to siphon money upwards into their MICs and use one other for political shit-flinging and fear mongering for internal distraction purposes.

 

[johnsmithjohnson]

Generally being aggressive in areas of the world folks are willing to contest for occupation is a mistake - whether it be Afghanistan, Ukraine or whatever. Generally baiting a country to invade and get into a quagmire is the smarter thing to do than participate in actual aggression.

China has a "make versus take" decision around the strategic value of Taiwan currently when it comes to semi-conductors -- a forced version of a make versus buy decision, where it seems obvious "make" is better option than "take". Not only could Taiwan destroy their semiconductor creation and tech capacity as a poison pill, but China would just be better off politically, reputationally, soft power wise to build their own industry in this space and continue to play their long game.

Secondly, is the "hole in the curtain" creation kind of thing for eastern expansion. Like again, it's going to be in anyone's interest for China (especially there own) to invade Japan, Philiipines or whomever else.

I don't assign high probability to this either.

The greater likelihood here is just arms MAD build ups like the cold war as a distraction tool for each of the nation's elite to siphon money upwards into their MICs and use one other for political shit-flinging and fear mongering for internal distraction purposes.

Pretty much. It would take an act of nature to get the needle going. I think xi will go smoothly, he will have his money and legacy..with the desertification going on, the pollution's in rivers, they need to shift over faet to ev, nukes, solar, hydro. They got to get the coal down. Russia the wild card when Putin goes. If China can catch up to SpaceX's current pace it will help but right now they have to go full belt and road. The ecology is breaking down.

 

[Unknown Pleasures]

Pretty much. It would take an act of nature to get the needle going. I think xi will go smoothly, he will have his money and legacy..with the desertification going on, the pollution's in rivers, they need to shift over faet to ev, nukes, solar, hydro. They got to get the coal down. Russia the wild card when Putin goes. If China can catch up to SpaceX's current pace it will help but right now they have to go full belt and road. The ecology is breaking down.

it's worht a google around China and it's paris accord committments. it's personally shocking to me how much they're blowing past their targets already.

 

[William Huggins]

Pretty much. It would take an act of nature to get the needle going. I think xi will go smoothly, he will have his money and legacy..with the desertification going on, the pollution's in rivers, they need to shift over faet to ev, nukes, solar, hydro. They got to get the coal down. Russia the wild card when Putin goes. If China can catch up to SpaceX's current pace it will help but right now they have to go full belt and road. The ecology is breaking down.

Xi ping will get his cousin Xi pong and fight it out with Frankie goes to Hollywood

 

[deviake]

Cold war ended and the west started trading and building up the economies of autocratic shitholes because we were too stupid to realize it would result in another cold war.

Leaders of autocratic shitholes like China and Russia are under no idiotic illusion that we will be friends because of economic alliances. Our ways of life are diametrically opposed to one another. They don't hate us for our freedom. They're scared of it. It's the preeminent threat to their power. Say what you want about the cold war, we won it and we spread democracy like a plague during it.

Now that America looks weak we're seeing them becoming increasingly bolder in their geopolitical moves.

Which is the logical move for them to be making.

Meanwhile the free world is rapidly unwinding their geopolitical power as they get embarrassed by the third rate scrub Putin. Which will only embolden China.

Geopolitically this is really, really simple stuff. It's incredibly disappointing seeing so many western leaders living in a geopolitical fantasy land.

We support 73% of the world's dictatorships and have overthrown what, dozens of democracies? I don't buy the "they're afraid of our freedom" 2000s Bush Jr thing. Our country is barely even a democracy at this point and to the extent that we can vote our choices are very limited in a rigged game that serves Capital above all else and has for decades. We're on some banana republic shit with Capital in nigh full control of our government; our elections are more show than go.

Of course, that doesn't mean I think China is an angel but I also don't think they're some absurd evil. Belt and Road ain't worse than IMF loans from what I've seen. Hell, we're trying to enact a strict surveillance state here too, they don't have to do that for us.

The US has done plenty of damage to our "brand" over the decades and Trump and our pendulum elections are pretty much killing trust in us and significant portions of the world are finding ways around the dollar. BRICS is growing.

I also think the military industrial complex warmly welcomes a new cold war with China. We may have bitten off more than we can chew this time though.

 

[Flower2dPeople]

I still blame Truman for all of this.

 

[Tatra]

I see a plenty of threads on China and Taiwan popping up here from time to time. I think most of the War Room, right wing or left wing, are not sympathetic to China's objective of taking over Taiwan. I think that is a good instinct.

This professor, Steve Tsang, is the Head of the School of Contemporary Chinese Studies at the University of London. War Room regulars might find these lectures on China and Taiwanese history fascinating, I know I did. I timestamped the parts where he talks about Taiwan and why it sits at the center of both U.S. and Chinese strategy in the Pacific.





Cliff notes:

Historically, from the 1920's to the 1940s, the loudest advocate for the impendence of Taiwan was The Chinese Community Party. At the "6th Chinese Community Party Congress" in Moscow, in the summer of 1928, Taiwan was a Japanese colony. The official position of the CCP was that the Taiwanese were their own separate people and should be recognized as an independent nation.

Taiwan has never been governed by the Chinese Communist Party.

The indigenous people of Taiwan are not Chinese according to anthropologists.

At the San Francisco peace conference of 1951 Taiwan was recognized as "China", as lead by Chang Kai-Shek, creating some confusion.

The empire on the Chinese mainland did not claim Taiwan until the 17th century. According to Tsang, the Manchu/Qing empire was not Chinese when it conquered China proper. Before the Qing empire, which some historians argue was not "Han-Chinese", the Chinese government did not claim Taiwan. It was seen as an independent tributary like Korea. And even under the Qing, Taiwan was considered a colony.

They want to take Taiwan because the agreement the USA signed with them has very similar wording to the treaty agreements the USA has with South Korea, Japan, and their other allies in the Pacific. If China can take Taiwan they believe those allies will lose confidence in their security agreements with the USA, opening the door for China to sign agreements with those countries that will remove the USA from the pacific and isolate Asia from western influence.

Taiwan is the first domino to fall, once it goes, the rest of the pacific goes with it.

China isn't going to invade Taiwan. It's never going to happen.

 

[KnightTemplar]

I see a plenty of threads on China and Taiwan popping up here from time to time. I think most of the War Room, right wing or left wing, are not sympathetic to China's objective of taking over Taiwan. I think that is a good instinct.

This professor, Steve Tsang, is the Head of the School of Contemporary Chinese Studies at the University of London. War Room regulars might find these lectures on China and Taiwanese history fascinating, I know I did. I timestamped the parts where he talks about Taiwan and why it sits at the center of both U.S. and Chinese strategy in the Pacific.





Cliff notes:

Historically, from the 1920's to the 1940s, the loudest advocate for the impendence of Taiwan was The Chinese Community Party. At the "6th Chinese Community Party Congress" in Moscow, in the summer of 1928, Taiwan was a Japanese colony. The official position of the CCP was that the Taiwanese were their own separate people and should be recognized as an independent nation.

Taiwan has never been governed by the Chinese Communist Party.

The indigenous people of Taiwan are not Chinese according to anthropologists.

At the San Francisco peace conference of 1951 Taiwan was recognized as "China", as lead by Chang Kai-Shek, creating some confusion.

The empire on the Chinese mainland did not claim Taiwan until the 17th century. According to Tsang, the Manchu/Qing empire was not Chinese when it conquered China proper. Before the Qing empire, which some historians argue was not "Han-Chinese", the Chinese government did not claim Taiwan. It was seen as an independent tributary like Korea. And even under the Qing, Taiwan was considered a colony.

They want to take Taiwan because the agreement the USA signed with them has very similar wording to the treaty agreements the USA has with South Korea, Japan, and their other allies in the Pacific. If China can take Taiwan they believe those allies will lose confidence in their security agreements with the USA, opening the door for China to sign agreements with those countries that will remove the USA from the pacific and isolate Asia from western influence.

Taiwan is the first domino to fall, once it goes, the rest of the pacific goes with it.

Inferiority complex. China throughout it's history has been the Sick Man of Asia. Everyone from the Mongols to the British Empire to Imperial Japan has bent them over and raped them. Without even having the Goddamn common courtesy to give them a reach around.

Now they want to flex their muscles and show the damned Gweilo's they can stand and bang with the big boys. It's a bit like a nerd who's gone through a growth spurt and spent his summer holiday living in the gym and dojo. He's going to spend his last year of high school kicking the shit out of the bullies who've made his life miserable.

 

[Beechwood]

Very interesting. I figured that might be the case. It does seem that Japan has been building up their military out of concern of China. At least I can remember seeing mentions on that in the past. Japan has restrictions on military growth, but they were looking to push those aside.

I can remember reading mentions about why was China so interested in Hong Kong. The answer that i often read was money. Hong Kong was wealthy, and the communists want that money.

I can imagine Taiwon holds a similar appeal to the Chinese communists. the leadership of China seems pretty corrupt. I can remember the mainland Chinese i used to communicate with complaining about the sons and daughters of Chinese leaders driving Ferraris around town and in general being very rich and letting everyone know it.