Who else is staggered that Gane is the favourite?

[NEETzschean]

Not really. Gane has been exceptional since he's started MMA. He's undefeated, brings an extremely unique skillset to HW, and the bookies always fall victim to MMAth, they see Gane schooled Lewis and Francis lost to him and think it means anything.

I'm leaning Gane but this shit is 50/50.

The bookies aren't "falling victim" (the house always wins, in the long-run, on average) it's the mass of bettors. If the bookies believe that "MMAmath" has predictive power, it probably does. It's not a certainty by any means and may not mean anything in this case but it's generally a good heuristic.

 

[NEETzschean]

"tested against much better competition than Gane"

Not really. Was 13 lbs lighter, late 30's Stipe in the small Octagon the same force that he was pre-Ngannou 1 and Cormier 1, 2 and 3? Would the Ngannou 2 version of Stipe have beaten the Volkov who fought Gane? It's certainly no forgone conclusion.

Aside from that there is huge overlap in opponents: Lewis, Jairzinho, JDS. Gane dominated all of them, Ngannou dominated 2/3 (albeit in a completely different way) and lost to one by decision (albeit in unusual circumstances).

 

[Huligani]

I'm not. Matchups like this historically go to Gane. This is the heaviest hitting heavyweight vs the fastest and most technical.

 

[NEETzschean]

Why Gane is the betting favourite:

1. Gane is unbeaten (10-0) Francis is not (16-3) Gane has never been in trouble and Gane has won in more ways (KO/TKO, decision, sub) more frequently
2. Francis has shown major psychological weakness in at least one of his fights (Lewis)
3. Francis was breathing with his mouth open in the first round of Stipe 2 without being hit with anything significant to the head: he has an awful engine
4. Stipe was 38.5, shopworn, less active, 234 lbs, a far inferior kickboxer than 32 year old, fresh as a daisy, 247 lbs Gane and was still able to absorb 36 strikes (28 head) before succumbing
5. The Stipe 2 Octagon was tiny because the UFC wanted Francis to have the advantage, this time the UFC will disadvantage him if anything (drug testing, Octagon size, canvas density, refereeing, judging etc.)
6. Gane is trained by Francis's ex-coach: possibly the man best placed on the planet to give Gane a winning gameplan vs Francis
7. Francis has recently been talking about boxing Fury and Wilder, possibly suggesting that he isn't fully focused on the fight with Gane this weekend and there is huge pressure on Francis to win (or the boxing crossover potentially disappears).
8. Gane has been much more active than Francis (Gane has fought 4 times in just over a year, Francis has fought just once in just over a year and a half) and has had impressive performances more recently
9. Gane has schooled and battered big power strikers in Lewis (who beat Francis) and Jairzinho and fwiw, looked to be beating old sparring partner Francis in the tape from years back
10. More often than not the elite technician beats the elite puncher, especially if he has a good chin

Ofc, all of this may be irrelevant if Francis lands a bomb and Gane can't take it. Gane seems to have a good chin but it hasn't been seriously tested yet, that's the biggest question mark for me. If Gane (when he has to) can take the power as well or better than Stipe did in the first fight, he very likely wins.

 

[NEETzschean]

I'm not. Matchups like this historically go to Gane. This is the heaviest hitting heavyweight vs the fastest and most technical.

The closest parallel in boxing would be Wilder-Usyk. I would favour Usyk in that matchup but it's a very imperfect comparison for many reasons.

 

[eNoq]

To me Ngannou is a -250 r1, dead even r2 and starts becoming the underdog if it goes r3 and beyond.
And because Gane is hard to hit, it's not surprising to see him close out a slight favorite.

 

[Jorge Luis Borges]

You should know better than to use MMAmath in any case, but particularly in this case, seeing as Ngannou and Lewis have never fought

I'd argue that Ngannou's timidity in that fight is an interesting point to consider. Ngannou seems like a confidence based fighter, and it might be interesting to see how reacts if he can't land big early.

 

[Bwanawanadoobie]

When this fight was announced Ngannou opened as a slight favorite. More money is going on Gane hence the line has shifted and now Gain is favored. I put a bet on Gain when the line was even so I'm hoping he wins, but I know it could end quickly.

 

[GoshiShun17]

Ultimately though bookies odds reflect were the money goes not who they think will actually win.

I'm always shocked that so many don't understand this concept.

 

[kevinramsdell]

I was surprised. Francis has faced tougher compition for alot longer. I still believe he wins this one by KO.

Gane beat Derrick Lewis who embarrassed Ngannou so much, that he could barely throw a competitive strike. MMA math is all you need to know. But let's be realistic here, do you think Ngannou can keep up with someone like Cyril for 25 minutes? Cyril has crazy good footwork and excellent striking, he doesn't let guys touch him. Francis is a bull who throws very hard, if he doesn't get Cyril out within 2 rounds, chances are Cyril eats him up for 25 minutes.

 

[legcramp]

Fairly easy rear-naked choke win for Gane.

 

[felmmando]

DC the fifty year old fat LHW?

No, by all accounts HW Cormier didn't hit like LHW Cormier.

 

[felmmando]

Cmon now, we're not counting that Lewis "fight" surely. That was just bizarre & if they fought again (for real) we all know what would happen

Yeah, whoever connected first with a real punch would win.

 

[capnlarge]

At the end of the day, the odds are designed to take your money, not to predict who wins or loses

 

[10000yearsold]

Ngannou been away and Gane's been active. that's the meat of it.

I favored Gane a moment. I have to say though, I've switched gears and I do favor Ngannou to win this fight. I hate to sound like I'm counting Gane out, cause I really really like Gane, but I think Francis has arrived and it's gonna stay scary tomorrow night.

 

[spinup]

To me Ngannou is a -250 r1, dead even r2 and starts becoming the underdog if it goes r3 and beyond.
And because Gane is hard to hit, it's not surprising to see him close out a slight favorite.

This is a mathematical nonsense. If Ngannou is -250 rd1 he can only be an even wider favourite for the whole fight.

 

[Steven Gay]

Ngannou has a punchers chance. Gane has much better technique. This fight will probably look like Derrick Lewis vs Cyril Gane.

 

[Deleted member 110072]

I'm always shocked that so many don't understand this concept.

In most sports though maybe it shows up less as the money tends to follow reality more? MMA I think the UFC's ability to hype the fanbase is so strong they can push the odds quite a lot way from reality.

I wouldnt really say this is the worst example I'v ever seen though(honestly I'v no idea who will win), generally those tend to be when an established name becomes so hyped they become far more of a favourite than they probably should be.

Maybe thats also why MMA doesnt attract as many serious gamblers? its not a sport were you get great returns betting on favourites.

 

[datfnguy]

I'm not saying he's he's a lock or anywhere close but how can Ngannou be the underdog against anyone on the planet at this point? He's beaten everyone; & flattened them. He lost to Miocic, made the adjustment, & beat him back, so it's not like he's a one-trick pony.

Francis has been tested against much better competition than Gane too .
He seems to have a pretty good chin whilst having insane KO power himself, & that's a tough combination to beat. How's Gane gunna beat him? By schooling him for 25 minutes? That seems like a big ask.

Ngannou is a beast, but he really only has one way to finish and that's KO. He's not winning a decision and his only route to a sub will come if Gane is already hurt. Gane can win a UD (most likely), sub or tko a tired Francis. I don't suggest Francis being tired for lack of cardio, but because of an adrenaline dump if he finds himself coming out for the 3rd round. A round that has spelled defeat for him in the past.

 

[Sticko]

This is a mathematical nonsense. If Ngannou is -250 rd1 he can only be an even wider favourite for the whole fight.

What? That doesn't make sense. Odds shift dramatically all the time in the middle of the fight.
It could be that Ngannou is very likely to win by first-round finish, but very unlikely to win by decision or get a late finish. At some point Gane's cardio could take over