Conor can't cut to 155 anymore, confidently or not.
If he hypothetically could, even Tony would be a major problem at this point. Conor is not taking his rehab seriously - he's way behind schedule and doing everything he can to make his rehab harder even if you exclude the massive weight gain - and will have one bad leg for a long time to come. He's not a takedown threat at all, nor a threat to do anything if he ever got a takedown. No footwork, no kicking, no takedown, no win. Conor can't just sit back and counter-punch when the footwork gap will leave him out of position just about every time. Tony beats Conor 8+ out of 10.