What Did We Learn? UFC 262 Takeaways

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Come one, come all. Share what you learned watching these fights. Did you make a bad call? Perfect call? Was it something you missed? Did someone present a new skill or weakness?

What did we learn? How can we beat the house and do better next time?

I'll go first:

Barboza vs Burgos
Before this fight I was confident the odds should have been reversed. I think in hindsight, I was spot on with that assessment. I think we saw the ceiling of Burgos here. He's likely to stick around in the Top 10 range (maybe a little higher, maybe a little lower, depending on matchups). I could see Barboza managing to get himself into the Top 5 of the Featherweight division. I'd like him over Sodiq/Arnold Allen who we saw recently. He should have beaten Ige. I think he can give a lot of the top guys at 145 lbs problems.

Dariush vs Ferguson
My personal lean on this fight was Ferguson when it was announced. Liked him at plus odds. The CDF/Gillespie fight last weekend showed how good CDF's grappling was, and in retrospect how good Dariush's was as well. Oliveria, for all his skills, is not exceptional with his TDs and he ragdolled Tony. I think Dariush by decision is something we all should have been on, and one I was too afraid to go after because I didn't want to bet against my initial gut instincts. I just left this fight alone and now, in retrospect, I'm having the gamblers remorse.

There's probably more I could say, but let's open the floor!

 

[Sono07]

Good call on the Barboza fight. Looking forward to watching that one soon as soon as I get the chance yet but thanks for sharing. Good to see this forum active, it is a great place to share and learn.

 

[guesswhoseback]

My 4 losses

1.Giagos-dec never bet any fighter by dec if hes fighting a guy who gets finished in all of there losses even if dude is a dec machine

2. Grundy- 2 fights in the UFC prior to Vannata was 1-1 vs Vannata a guy who has had muilple fights and beat or had close fights with decent people

3. Schnell- Close fight I had other dude winning but it was still close

4. Burgos-Barboza over Just got fucked in that fight nothing else


With all that said I aint gonna learn shit or do shit differently just hope I win my bet.

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Good call on the Barboza fight. Looking forward to watching that one soon as soon as I get the chance yet but thanks for sharing. Good to see this forum active, it is a great place to share and learn.

We must build and become stronger

Another one here, I think, is that Jacare is likely done. He looked reasonable at times, pressuring and landing takedowns. But his punches looked slow. And then to get submitted, violently no less, is not a good look.

What do we make of Muniz? I don't know much about his BJJ background, but it seems pretty legit. He looks like he could very well be a Top 15 ranked Middleweight in the UFC.

@guesswhoseback you bring up an interesting point in the Lando fight. Lando is just one of those guys who always seems to find a way to not only fight to the distance, but make it close. I don't know wtf the one judge was smoking when he gave it to Grundy by 30-27. Insane.

Grundy, in my opinion, is a textbook lower tier gatekeeper. He can sort of strike, he can sort of wrestle, but does not blend them together whatsoever. His defence seems sound, he kept a good guard up.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I haven’t been taping much of anything and have won 11 out of the last 12 events.

Just going off of leans and perceived value

wasn’t really surprised by much last night besides jacare getting tapped. I think his reaction timing has gotten so bad that it’s seeped into his grappling

Aguilar is regressing. I may not ever bet on him again. If you can’t outstrike tucker lutz or Charles Rosa then maybe you shouldn’t be in the ufc

 

[Stat_Collector]

my best picks were Lando and Muniz. its amazing what a little bit of information can do, the biggest surprise was Matt Scnell. I thought with the longer fight camp and his opponent missing weight there was no way he'd lose, i did not even watch footage. Time is really my enemy, the fights i lost are the ones I least spend the time on.

 

[mkess101]

1. I said it before, but the narrative that Oliveira is mentally weak, looks for a way out, etc needs to go away. 2 fights in a row he's battled through adversity and found the finish shortly thereafter. Also, he obviously has some power in his hands when he lets them go. He's a sub machine, but he can crack. Although getting tagged early by Lee last fight and then Chandler last night shows there are still gaping defensive holes in his game. Food for though in a matchup with Dustin or Conor who are both extremely accurate precision strikers compared to the rest of the LW division.

2. Jacare is absolutely done, and to a lesser degree so is (man it pains me to say this) Tony. Jacare needs to retire, he's THAT done. Tony...needs a couple favorable matchups vs guys who don't want to grapple with him but aren't huge punchers. Someone said Nate at 170, love that. Likely it's a high volume striking match with a lot of action and trash talk.

3. Betting dogs in WMMA seems to continually pay dividends. Saw it again last night with Cocheira and Lee. Analysis matters sure, but when on the fence about whether to make a play or not on a WMMA fight...this is something to keep in mind.

4. Barboza can still crack. Burgos is tough, to put him away like that with the delayed reaction to the punch was impressive.

5. Lando's counter wrestling is elite. It's kind of awkward how he gives his back but it just works. He knows how to break grips, he understands the leverage needed, and he has great balance. He doesn't concede and accept being held down. A truly gifted grappler will be able to control him but nothing short of that will.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

My analysis was dialed-in and on-point. My two pre-bets, on Oliviera and Zombie Girl, went exactly as I predicted, right down to the things I feared would happen to either of them. Thankfully, both overcame them.

I placed a cautious bet on Jacare right before the fight since I was annoyed that my heavy leans (Lutz and Wright, both at evens) had both won, but I couldn't justify betting either since I hadn't properly taped.

That one WAS surprising; no, I didn't anticipate that Muniz, whose takedown defense I rated as merely average, would repeatedly take down Jacare, let alone submit him. I expected a lot of possible decline, but not that.

Don't mind the bet at all, though.

There is some justification for pulling the trigger on Vannata at small plus odds (+110) late in round 1, except I wasn't at all familiar with Grundy but was very familiar with Vannata habitually fading after round 1, some justification for adding to my Oliviera bet by hitting him at +170 after round 1, although Chandler's cardio is decent, and possibly going higher on my Bontorin bet of -115 after round 2 DESPITE how spooked the Chookagian robbery a fight ago had me, but meh, none of these are major missed opportunities, and similar situations could easily end in a loss.

The only real lesson for me is to allocate my limited free time to make 5u or more in MMA instead of spending it to grind out a 1u profit on tennis.

 

[Sadistics]

I feel like I need to relearn this lesson every few months, but avoid old washed fighters such as Jacare and Ferguson. Thought I learned with Benavidez earlier this year but had to again with Cerrone last week. Detach from the name and accomplishments and just look at what they've showed their last couple fights.

 

[guesswhoseback]

I feel like I need to relearn this lesson every few months, but avoid old washed fighters such as Jacare and Ferguson. Thought I learned with Benavidez earlier this year but had to again with Cerrone last week. Detach from the name and accomplishments and just look at what they've showed their last couple fights.

Hey man I know you dont post your bets here anymore but how have you been doing this yr? Still winning almost every event?

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I feel like I need to relearn this lesson every few months, but avoid old washed fighters such as Jacare and Ferguson. Thought I learned with Benavidez earlier this year but had to again with Cerrone last week. Detach from the name and accomplishments and just look at what they've showed their last couple fights.

Because there’s some kind of perceived value on them…there was a reason these once great fighters had plus numbers next to them

if they haven’t fell completely off a cliff they should do this. Relying on previous fights, wondering how much they actually regressed. Just pass or fade.

funny I was on all the same old guys but played it smart last night and actually profited off the jacare fight playing Muniz itd fdngtd

hedged tony with dariush decision

 

[2020Tracked]

Don't bet fighters based on reputation, bet them on what you actually see and avoid the hype.

Jacare and Ferguson are the clear example of this, this week. I bet Muoniz and I bet Muniz by sub, I didn't see it as the most likely outcome but what I did see was Jac's reputation as being a deadly dangerous BJJ player being touted.

I'm sure in his time he was great on the mats but when have we really seen it, especially recently? Jac's a striker now, and as a striker he's slow and stiff and predictable, wooden. I took Miniz and sprinkled his sub just because I thought the younger, more fluid fighter would have the advantage in scrambles.

With Ferguson we all knew he was faded and we'd all seen his grappling and wrestling was bad, but the hype around the card started to sway some people towards Tony having his confidence back, his cardio edge, he'll draw Benile into being a wild man and break him later.

My tip would be don't watch the hype around cards, if you're doing this to make money more so than for the entertainment. We all enjoy the story and the build up but the hype machine can make match ups seem something they aren't.

Also, low level WMMA should always be lined a pick'em, if someone like Gina Mazany is -200 or deeper against anyone that line is automatically wide.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I wanted cerrone to win. I wanted jacare to win. I wanted Ferguson to win. Maybe they show some flashes of their old self. Maybe they’re really prepared. If 60% of fighter A shows up they should dominate.

Maybe refusing to accept these guys are completely shot and can’t beat top 20 talent with any consistency or even at all.

being sentimental over fighters in mma isnt +ev

 

[PuertoRican]

I learned that there are still some bettors in this part of the forum who are still betting with their emotions, which leads to them betting irresponsibly, and eventually leaving Sherdog forever.

It's hard to give any new advice for bettors who keep going on tilt, because a big part of it is mental, and we can't change the way people think, they will have to learn for themselves by continuing to lose and hopefully learn their lesson in the long run.

We are lucky that in 2021, we have a UFC card almost every weekend, and there are other MMA organizations that have events here and there like ONE, Bellator, PFL, and a couple of other smaller events. In saying that, if you get owned really bad on a UFC card, do whatever you can to stop yourself from loading up on the next fight on the card and trying to chase your losses because your fighter fought like you didn't expect them to, they got robbed by the judges, or lost in some fluky manner. You might be able to win a big bet by chasing on one or a few fights, but you will eventually lose everything in the long run because you have already trained your brain to think you can just chase your way out of losses like you've done before, and you won't learn your lesson until your bankroll -- and maybe even your bank account -- is empty.

I am definitely not a professional bettor, nor do I want to be, but there is a reason why there are only a few active people in the MMA Betting Forum who have Sherdog accounts that are more than 5 years old.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Fading washed-up greats can be a dangerous game, though.

I've personally lost quite a bit of money fading Andrei Arlovski at certain times when he seemed utterly shot and had lost many fights in a row. He still continues winning.

One can say "but heavyweights!", except there are plenty of exceptions at lower weights, too. A lot of people figured Barboza at 35 and fighting at a lighter, faster weight class was shot, and bet Burgos accordingly. How did that one turn out?

Or let's look at that very same Cowboy. When he fought Mike Perry in late 2018, he had lost 4 of his last 5, was 35, and had a million miles on his body. Surely, there was a "reason" he had a plus number next to him for that fight, and the one after it, against Alexander Hernandez, and the one after THAT, against Iaquinta, when he was 36? And yet, he won all 3 as an underdog, sometimes a considerable one.

There are a dozen other examples that readily come to mind.

What @Sadistics said is absolutely correct; you look at their past few fights and see if they might still have it.

But as usual, people here are taking that sound advice and oversimplifying/misapplying it to the point where it becomes wrong.

Jacare hasn't used his grappling recently? He got an instant takedown against Kevin Holland in his last fight! And he used his grappling to arguably beat Jan Blachowicz a fight before that one.

Ferguson? Yeah, there was reason for doubt, given that his style is so dependent on high-energy and durability, two qualities that necessarily decline as one ages, as well as the hellacious, career-altering beating he received from Gaethje, and to some extent, even from Oliveira. Not to say that Dariush was a slam-dunk; his defense and chin are very suspect, and even a faded Ferguson might have beaten him in a pure kickboxing contest. Luckily, Dariush took him down at will and kept him down, but that was far from a guarantee, as I rate his wrestling and top control lower than I do Oliveira's.

I learned that there are still some bettors in this part of the forum who are still betting with their emotions, which leads to them betting irresponsibly, and eventually leaving Sherdog forever.

It's hard to give any new advice for bettors who keep going on tilt, because a big part of it is mental, and we can't change the way people think, they will have to learn for themselves by continuing to lose and hopefully learn their lesson in the long run.

For me, a lot of it comes down to confidence. With MMA, I have an unshakable belief that I consistently make good reads and plays. Thus, I can lose 10 units on a card and not be remotely bothered; I will get it back eventually.

Alternatively, for a long time, it would bother the hell out of me when I would even lose 1 unit on tennis, and I would absolutely chase. Why? Because I didn't have that same confidence, and knew deep down I had made some dumbass, poor play, and wanted to erase it by loading up.

That's changed more recently with tennis, as I continue to improve my knowledge, abilities, and results, and ultimately, my confidence, but it may be a root cause for a lot of chases.

 

[AK-47]

I learnt when betting on old timers that grappling ability diminishes just like your striking/speed/chin. I did not really even consider the grappling threat from Muniz and just made the assumption, based on the amount of jacares fights ive watched, that he will just negate any submission threat. I think avoiding old timers all together is not the call though because sometimes they are in great spots and with great value. I think the problem is that we sometimes look down negatively on recency bias but it is very important in these kinds of fights in the reverse scenario

For instance if your betting Fighter A just because they have had back to back great performances and in doing so overlooking any weakness they have shown in the past it would not be a wise decision. But I sometimes do the same in reverse and tape old fights with similar match up styles or common opponents and maybe overlook what their skill level is at in recent fights.

I learnt that recency bias is extremely important in the reverse, when your doing the opposite and assuming Fighter A can deal with a threat based on old taping that I may have done before. When betting old timers going forward I will put most of the taping effort into the opponents fights and the old timers last few fights. Another thing I think is very important thing to pay attention to is in their last 3-5 fights how many times have they been kod or have they absorbed a lot of signficant strikes.

For exampe I bet Barbosa and he had a great performance overall. but something felt a bit off about his kicks last night. When he landed he landed good and hard but he wasnt as accurate catching a lot of knees and elbows and refused to set them up with punches which allowed burgos to evade quite a few of them. Also his recovery after missing a low kicks was slow but burgos' leg was probaby wrecked at that point and he couldnt take advantage of it. Barbosa is a excellent kicker but not a good checker and absorbed quite a few kicks himself

If that was Edson Barbosa of old Burgos would not have been able to walk out of the cage unassisted because some of those early low kicks landed haaaaard and looked liked they really jacked up his knee. I think ive noticed that a lot of older fighters (who kick a lot) specifically ones that have a lot of fights throw less and less low kicks as the fights piles up. As an older guy who has been training/competing muay thai for most of my life I see this with a lot of guys including myself. I feel like in his next fight his kicking volume is going to decrease. He showed improved boxing though and was generating a lot of power in his punches compared to his previous fights.

From now on I will treat the old guy like Player 1 in Street Fighter 2 in a best of 3 with 1 round lost and half a health bar down.

 

[RobinHoodMoneyBags]

I learned to not waste my time watching boring fights and betting on fights like Mazany vs Priscilla..

My 4 losses

1.Giagos-dec never bet any fighter by dec if hes fighting a guy who gets finished in all of there losses even if dude is a dec machine

2. Grundy- 2 fights in the UFC prior to Vannata was 1-1 vs Vannata a guy who has had muilple fights and beat or had close fights with decent people

3. Schnell- Close fight I had other dude winning but it was still close

4. Burgos-Barboza over Just got fucked in that fight nothing else


With all that said I aint gonna learn shit or do shit differently just hope I win my bet.

That’s not good

 

[guesswhoseback]

I learned to not waste my time watching boring fights and betting on fights like Mazany vs Priscilla..


That’s not good

I think I may possibly be the only person on this forum who legits gamble for fun. I will bet about 400-800$ an event I can come home and my wife would not be able to tell the difference If I won 10k or lost it all because the money I gamble I am expecting to lose. From what I read when people post on this forum that its do or die for some of the posters on here theres even been a couple of posters who deactivated there sherdog account because they lost so much money get real. Do not gamble the money you cant afford to lose thats alwalys my saying. If I win great If I lose fuck it no big deal. Trust me you dont think I know doing on avg 100$ per event on no chance in hell 8 fighter parlays for 5 bucks randomly picking them and when I say random I mean truly random Ill go to a number generator site and whatever number they tell me to pick that who ill pick is smart? Fuck no its not I realise that but I do it for fun and if I hit 1 hell yea come up

 

[guesswhoseback]

I learned to not waste my time watching boring fights and betting on fights like Mazany vs Priscilla..


That’s not good

Its not good when someone gets there feelings hurt on a betting forum when they lost all there bets for an event they made and someone commented LOL on it then they went on a hissy fit for 2 months straight about it. Thats when you know you got a problem is when some random person who you have no idea who they are laughs at your bets and you get your feelings hurt and end up de actiavtaing your account because of it. That the serious issue here.

GAMBLE WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Oblivian]

I feel like I need to relearn this lesson every few months, but avoid old washed fighters such as Jacare and Ferguson. Thought I learned with Benavidez earlier this year but had to again with Cerrone last week. Detach from the name and accomplishments and just look at what they've showed their last couple fights.

I was done with Jacare after the Holland fight. With how Vettori handled the top game, it reinforced that to me. However, I didn't learn on Ferguson. No idea why I figured he could gameplan and stuff the takedowns forcing a standup fight. It's clear he will never gameplan due to his style. I'm not sure that I'm sold that he's totally washed yet, but I think there is a clear blueprint to beat him now in two different ways.