Watched last 3 fights of all title fighters for UFC 251, breakdowns inside

[HockeyBjj]

UFC 251: Analysis of last three fights of each title fighter

I’ll start with the first title fight of the night. -250 Petr Yan vs +200 Jose Aldo

In the spoilers are my notes of each fight, each round really, as I took them. They’re not the cleanest as they mostly make sense to me but they could offer some insight as to what I saw and when that leads me to say the things I am in this analysis here. Both on this type up and in the notes, please give me feedback here. I’m enjoying doing this, work is still slow with Covid impacts, so this’ll get long but I think I’ll be able to drop some good info here and/or get counters to my points from you all for some discussion.

Petr Yan is an interesting power striker. He stalks his opponent down, but doesn’t throw jabs to do so. He just walks forward with a shell guard up, daring you to punch him in the face so that he can counter. He’ll sit right in the pocket and just wait. Not much head movement or lateral movement or anything before the engagement begins. Obviously, it’s working out for him. Each fight, it just seemed like a matter of time before he found a home for that straight right. And that straight right is fassssstttt. And straight. No windup. No shoulder tell giveaway yet it has the power of a fully torqued from hips right cross. I had thought it was just a gameplan in the Faber fight but in all three I watched, Yan would move forward just shelled up and then the moment his opponent was against the cage begin to unload. Rinse and repeat. That’s an integral part of his style. Petr’s biggest flaw that I saw, was that he very often over extends his punches. He doesn’t just put too much on a punch and end up in counter-hook range of his opponent; Yan will like full on fall into them. Thus starting a clinch where he’s vulnerable. Against a dirty boxer type or Judo/Greco Roman wrestler background, this would be a major, major weakness. The saving grace for Petr here as he gets entangled and out of position, is actually that he’s really, really good in the clinch. He’ll re-establish his posture, tie up, and then initialize the clinch break and always look to damage on separation. The other flaw I saw was that with his moving forward without using a jab style is that he’s super vulnerable to leg kicks. Rivera made him pay with those. Really, Yan was losing that fight aside from a very late 1st knockdown and again a late round knockdown in the 2nd. But that’s what I mean about his style just knowing sooner or later he’ll connect hard. It’s not just a punchers KO chance thing, but knows when it happens it’ll change the tide.

Jose Aldo is now a pure boxer with tdd. I don’t care about the legendary leg kicks of old. I scoff when they mention he has his black belt in jiu jitsu but just chooses not to use it. Current Jose Aldo is a head slipping, body shot digging, pivot stepping boxer pure and simple. Also his last three fights were ghostly similar to Yan. He’d move forward, and wait to counter. Yan shells up while Aldo bobs and bounces to try and be leaning a correct way initially for a slip. (Aldo will also telephone guard very well after a 1st slip to block the 2nd in a combo). Aldo really has a lack of activity though. He’d look for a perfect punch, and if that wasn’t there, literally minutes could go by without him attempting a significant strike. This did and will lose him decisions. That head movement though. Wow. He’s still got it. His head will move offline reflexively, and that opens up a world of counters to him. When it’s not a punch he likes coming in, he’ll often move back out of reach with ease. Although each fight in the 3rd round he lost this ability and would get hit before exiting range due to slow down. Aldo loves his body shots, and hunts those out in his counters. They’re also in his go to arsenal the times he’s wobbled an opponent and then Aldo flips a switch and rushes very well. Volkanov was able to hold Aldo up against the cage. And Aldo just seemed to accept it. That lack of activity is just like his mental state in the fight, and affects all aspects of the fight. If it’s not perfect, he doesn’t want it.

How they matchup- Because as we all know, it’s the styles that make the fight. I really believe the path to making some money vs Vegas is to see how the different styles and tendencies of the fighters mesh beyond just what the numbers say. And in doing that, this surprised me on my breakdown of how I think a fight could play out between them after watching 6 of their fights. I still think Yan wins this, but I saw a very clear path to victory for Aldo here that didn’t rely on “Maybe WEC Aldo will return and chop Yan’s leg down”. I want WEC and early UFC Aldo back, he’d win this fight with that style. But that ship has been gone for half a decade even if Rogan keeps bringing it up. I’ll get into that path in a minute.


My bookie has the over for this set at 2.5 and that’s a lock even at the -185 it’s at now. I have 2U there and will probably put some more. Yes Yan has power but they’re both not just counter punches but very committed to not being the first one to throw until they get the look they want. For Yan, that’s his opponent with his back up to the cage. For Aldo, that’s after a successful head slip leaving his opponent vulnerable from the angle and half of his guard extended. Aldo moves forward, he doesn’t back up as easy as Yan’s other opponents would. I’m glad this is earlier in the night and not the headliner because as awesome as this could be, it could really be a bore as they both wait on the other.


The path to victory I mentioned for Aldo comes from the way the fight ends up not a bore. Yan moves forward. Aldo moves forward. Both are used to opponents backing up, and from there they look to counter. If they’re both bent on using their natural fighting style, two guys who continuously move forward (one shelled up and still, the other bouncy with tiny feints) will end up with exchanges in a phone booth as they have no more room to move forward. Aldo will win if this becomes an in tight brawl. His slips, body shot hooks, and uppercuts worked into combinations is too technical for Yan’s style that can get wild. After a round and a half or two feeling out it could up up that phonebooth brawl as neither get the edge they’re looking for with their two similar styles clash. However, It’s too easy for Yan to avoid this with disengagement, and re-start the slow stalk for me to bet on Aldo managing that even at +185 (it’s now +200 which is more tempting). Yan will instigate exchanges, even if he prefers not to. Aldo straight up refuses to do that. I see Yan winning this decision or possibly late finish if he can get a more tired Aldo up against the cage for that straight right to find him. I don’t think that’s likely, but working him down like that in the later rounds to ensure the decision victory is.



Petr Yan last 3 fights

• 
  
  Spoiler

  [*]KO W vs Faber 12/14/2019
  

  • This fight was still in my mind, but three fight review was good to reinforce that Yan stalking forward without using much volume was an integral part of Yan’s fighting style, not just a gameplan. I’m certain this is the look he will show against Aldo while looking for a home for that very quick, no load right straight
  • Rd 1: Backed Faber up to cage. Lots of small, tensing feints that are working. Yan waiting to throw, will use a step in stance switch to cover distance when Faber moving back out of range
  • Rd 2: And yes I’ve noticed this from previous fights. Yan’s walkdown involves a mostly meaningless jab.Good clinch exits. All his fights, just seems a matter of time for that straight right to find home and get a knockdown. New trick shown: Good back grip drag down trip. Shows perhaps better bodylock grappling moves in the arsenal if he needed them (or to defend from them).
  • Rd 3: And here’s the knee to kick knockout. Quick thinking adjustment to that strike mid flight. Of more important note, the clinch skills the allowed that. His powerful striking’s greatest flaw is that he over commits on it. His clinch skills greatly negate that flaw.
    

  [*]Dec W vs Rivera 1/8/2019
  

  • Rd 1: Yan standing in front, and waiting. Quick steps back. Will overextend punches and end up clinched. Does Aldo still low kick? Rivera looking good vs Yan style. Yan dropped for a leg, couldn’t do anything though. Dropped him with a shift stance overhand left right at end of round. Was slightly losing before that. Yan will overextend himself and get into short clinches.
  • Rd 2: Will stand in the pocket, and that does mean he’ll eat some. Leg kicks hurt his lead leg, again, does Aldo still kick? Yan wil back Rivera up, but Riv will get ok shots in during phone booth exchanges. Yan drops him again right at end of round, tight against cage
  • Rd 3: Not set up with punches, but smooth left kick to body. Often a step through. Yan can get caught, but shell defense normally good enough. Seems he decides before exchanges if his D will be to cover or to move out of range. I think Yan is sneaky good at scrambles, which is good as his over reaching gets him into some messy but quick grappling exchanges
    

  [*]Dec W vs Dodson 2/23 2018
  

  • Rd 1: Yan moving forward a lot. Not jabbing or instigating exchanges. Big right straight. Very straight. Kicks keep getting caught. Yan can get wild when throwing combos.
  • Rd 2: More of same, Yan moving forward, not much volume, hunting big right hand. Good tdd. Dodson got the knockdown with step in left hook. Good recovery by Yan. Yan fast hands for that sudden right.
  • Rd 3: More of the same. Also notice Yan throws quite a few knees. Weren’t most effective here but could be

Jose Aldo last 3 fights

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  Spoiler

  [*]Dec L vs Morares- BW
  

  • Rd 1: Aldo doesn’t look much smaller than his last two fights. Just thinner shoulders. Aldo has some Anderson Silva type movement to avoid messey exchanges and works bent arm blocks in as well. Aldo good sit down right when Moraes came in. Again move forward without throwing except to counter. Will bounce to try and entice opponent to throw. When he doesn’t like the punch coming at him will back away quickly, will slip and try to counter if he reads it I believe. Aldo really in Morares face. Killer blows end of round 1 but didn’t find off switch. Urgency way up once he thought opponent hurt. . Oh wow, violent throw by Morares.
  • Rd 2: Good bodyshots and uppercut by Aldo. Still not enough activity but great when he does throw. Aldo dropping his hands after exchanges. Aldo oddly taking some jabs. Til now he’s always slid or slipped those. Nice uppercuts again.
  • Rd 3: Quick right straight then out of range. More stalk and try to counter. Pulilng short on his punches for some reason? Aldo not protecting or throwing after clinch releases. Tries to simply reset. Lol. Morares straight up surprised to hear that he won.
    

  [*]Dec L vs Volkanowski- FW
  

  • Rd 1: Aldo standing in front of Volk. Aldo not moving backward much. Will quick back up, but then slowly move forward again. Aldo loves those body shots. Fantastic head movement slips by Aldo, missed opportunities to counter off of them. When Aldo does see his chance, willl dart forward quickly. Just doesn’t “see” his chances enough to put in his offense.
  • Rd 2: Keeps getting tapped first and can’t get into a rhythm. Good defense by Aldo. Aldo getting bullied in the clich. It’s impossible to take him down, but he’s losing the fight in the clinch against the cage and can’t get off. Made a nice move to escape for 10 seconds but then sucked back in.
  • Rd 3: Aldo’s retreats are slowing. He’s not getting back and fully out of range as easy anymore, and that’s leading to him getting hit by punches he avoided round 1. Still good head movement and counters. Losing clinch again. “Aldo looks for perfect punch opportunity, but not seeing it”. Aldo tired, that head slip is faaaast tho. Ends fight stuck against cage.
    

  [*]KO W vs Moicano 2/2/2019- FW
  

  • Rd 1: Feeling out process. Aldo light no meaning jabs and backing up. Bouncy hands. Looking to counter, sees a look he likes and explodes.. A couple low leg kicks but not much. Lots of digging body left body shots. Good blocking on Moicano’s combos.
  • Rd 2: Little more moving forward from Aldo, but only single punches. Bait maybe? Aldo used a straight right to step into tight range, the right didn’t do anything, but that close-in left hook Aldo felt rocked him. And he just poured it on. Wow. Aldo’s left hook is clearly his preferred power punch despite being orthodox, body and head.

 

[HockeyBjj]

+182 Max Holloway vs -225 Alex Volkanovski


Different breakdown style since this is a rematch-


As we all know, Volk utterly destroyed Max’s lead leg by the middle of the 2nd round and basically had that fight won by that point there. So the question is, will the rematch look any different? The round 1, Holloway was indeed getting his volume strikes in and Volk wasn’t able to get to where he wanted to for his strikes. Volk then decided he can just eat Holloway’s punches as there’s no power and stayed in as Holloway stepped in to throw back. Beyond the damage the leg kicks did, Volk was also having success leading with a leg kick to stop Holl from being able to move back out of striking range. After the lead leg was destroyed, Max switched to southpaw and for a while looked much better. It really looked like Volk had to re-figure out a game plan. Holl’s straight rights were landing as was the body work. Eventually, Volk over came that as Holloways also didn’t look as comfortable as a southpaw, his defense left him open after a punch. Holloway uses southpaw more for switches in his massive volume combos and step throughs to cover large amounts of range. He doesn’t actually instigate exchanges as a southpaw and it showed. Eventually Max went back to his more comfortable orthodox to try and catch a flurry in the late rounds but it didn’t work.

What can Holloway do differently?


#1, duh, check the damn leg kicks. Problem though. I only went back these 3 fights so if someone knows of a fight from years ago please let me know, but Holloway never once checks a kick. So if he does start doing this, it’ll be a completely knew learned skill and not a natural part of his fighting style. Also, those below the knee kicks as opposed to the Muay Thai style thigh kicks…. Has anyone yet had success checking those? He’ll have to lift and let Volk’s kick pass underneath. Silver lining here is if he gets nice with the timing this should provide an opportunity to step in when Volk is immoble as he can’t slide back while his leg continues its momentum. This would let Max get off one of his volume flurries. The other thing I really think he could do, is dedicate himself to training southpaw for his camp (I don’t buy the zero training/sparring thing. That’s to avoid getting a fine letter in the mail from Hawaii). He had some success southpaw, the straight left was there through Volk’s guard. And it limited the leg kicks. Max unfortunately did look uncomfortable fighting dedicatedly to the southpaw stance. He likes being able to shift between them with step throughs, but not start an exchange left back and finish it like that as well. His defense clearly suffered and he got blasted. As well as his offense for more than singles. He even went back to ortho because it just wasn’t working, but aspects of it certainly were. Third and finally, use his range as a proper range fighter. Max as almost comically long arms. But he doesn’t like keeping people at the end of his punches. He likes to move forward, draw them in, and be able to get of Diaz bro like flurries. Unfortunately, this also lets a power punch a few inches closer and be able to land his own rather than hitting air. He looked great against Edgar using his range, but a lot of that was the “threat” of his range backing the wrestler up, not Holloway actually using jab and a long step through straight and retreat. I’d like to see more of that this time and Max could point himself to a decision win, but he needs to avoid a lot of the attacks from Volkanovski to do so.


What can Volkanovski do the same, or better, or adapt to some of the potential improvements from Max?


This section will be short. Volkanovski put together the perfect gameplan for a 5 foot 6 power hitting to take out a 5 inch taller volume striker. He might need some patience in the first round. When Max is fresh, his burst ins weren’t reaching Max and he was falling short. It wasn’t until the mobility of Max suffered from those leg kicks that Volk’s punches truly started to land. What he expertly did was…. Not give a crap about Max’s punches. They don’t have power. Volk would just let Max move in to land a punch and then blast in return with high hooks (they’re not overhangs) and give 10x the damage he got. He just let Max move in to him and didn’t try to avoid most of Max’s punches. Of one of the fewest things Volkanovski could work on for the rematch is some better head movement. His defense was a shell guard, but if Max doesn’t wade into his range on the rematch he’s going to take punches, even not the most damaging ones, while not being able to get in for his own. That doesn’t end up in your favor on a judges scorecard. Some slips and retreats of his own will do better to force Max to commit more to his strikes, which works into Volk’s favor.


Overall, this fight is most likely going to look like a carbon copy of the first bout. It’s not like Max has two very different fighting styles he can bring depending on gameplan. He’s a volume striker that wears guys down. One of the best. But that’s it. Against Porier up a weight class and now Volkanovski here, that’s not working against stronger heavy hitting guys. There’s a part of me though that thinks Max can make the adjustments to make this into his type of point fighting fight. Maybe even bring something new (inside knee like Hooker showed in the Felder fight would be a fantastic new attack to implement in the first round to make Volk think about his head down rushes to close)


Max Holloway Last 3 fights

Spoiler

• Dec L vs Volkanovski
  • Rd 1: .Holloway starts backup up Volk just using reach threats. Couple exchanges good keeping Volk at end of his punches. Volk bare rushes don’t work, but leg kicks freeze Holloway. I think Holloway edged out round 1, but you can see all the pieces have been figured out for Volk to win.
  • Rd 2: Lead body punch vs shell is there. Seems timid as to what to do with the leg kicks. Not reaching out his jab (nor checking). Just some lack of commitment to throw a 1-2 when it looks like its there. SP now. Looks better, That rear left straight finds it through Volk’s guard.
  • Rd 3: Holl just looks lost now, trying to mask it with some antics after he gets blasted. Right jab looks good, but his defense SP is definitely worse than orthodox. Wow. Pretty knee to the mid section on the step in by Volk. That should be a go to move in the rematch.
  • Rd 4: Still game, no longer using his range though. Trying to hold in there and land hooks and uppercuts and it’s just not fully working. Back to orth. Volk able to get away through, but Max once again backing him up.
  • Rd 5: Good body shot rights, but paying for half of them with a leg kick. More willing to throw, needed this earlier. Will still like, start an exchange, and then pause it and get tagged for that hang up. Max definitely more comfortable orth. Max seemed to think he might have won that, that’s not a good sign imo opinion that he’ll make all the serious changes needed to win a rematch.
    

Dec W vs Edgar

• Rd 1: Holloway seems to like to hang his long arms out there to threaten range. Hands held low, possible due to TD threat from Edgar. Few combos by edgar landed, mostly using range well to stick also get a shot in on the disengage. Good jabs and pokes at the end of the round.
• Rd 2: This just looks night and day different versions of Holloway fighting against a shorter fighter. He’s getting his jabs in, getting away, and when in exchanges landing a lick or two and taking almost nothing in return.
• Rd 3: Dang. Good balance to avoid TD when Edgar in on single. Even if Volk tries more TDs in the rematch I don’t think they’ll work. Max keeps Edgar away, when in close is able to make them pay with faster hands. Frankie gets takedown but Max was pouring it on (and had defended like 3TDs until then). Good defense from his back.
• Rd 4: Max slowing some, Frankie’s step ins are getting to Max now. Max also almost complacent and letting himself hang out in Frankie’s range, but without him throwing his own there. This is ok against Frankie’s light boxerness, but would be getting him cracked against Volk’s power shots. Max dishing out some Diaz type volume accumulation going on
• Rd 5: Seems a little coast. Jabs and avoiding serious engagement. Back to doing a good job getting away from Frankie rushes.
  

Dec L vs Poirier

• Rd 1: Porier just so much bigger. Wow. Trying to watch this and focus on Max is hard. Porier looks so good. But then as I type that Max pivots away and lands a high left hook that wobbles. Porier. Then a very nice flurry against the cage. Will need those to win vs Volk. Ate a hard right, good defense vs flurry. Gets caught again after. Holloway is barely on his feet, can’t believe this ended in a decision.
• Rd 2: Max has Porier a little tired and is able to work with long hooks. Body straights. Max volume looks better, but his hands drop leaving him open with his combos. And there, ended up getting hurt from hands low. Geeze, again.
• Rd 3: Holloway is tough as nails, but just doesn’t have any power to his punches to earn respect to slow down opponent from throwing heavy in return.
• Rd 4: Holloway taken down. Got ducked under trying to push Porier to cage. Really looked like a tiredness issue from the beating rather than a technical flaw. Got back to feet easy. Able to get a flurry in on Porier. Lol, Holloway getting beat up but tiring Porier down badly. Can he keep his leg alive vs Volk 1st two rounds and win 3-5 with gas tank? That knee broke his whole face.
• Rd 5: Holloway cardio is amazing, but he has absolutely zero power left.

Alexander Volkanovski last 3 fights

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  Spoiler

  [*]Dec W vs Holloway
  

  • Rd 1: Few leg kicks landed, more like consolation prizes as Holloway back up is quicker than Volk trying to get into his punching range. Volk now moving forward. Took him only 2 minutes to figure out he can stand in range and use Holloway moving forward to assist him on his own step ins into range. Volk just shells, holds ground, and returns fire. Not truly a counter, just take a hit and throw harder ones. Low effort TD attempt, but got to lean on Holl with his strength. Leg kicks not just damage, but also stop Holl retreat and he can plant and throw hooks after.
  • Rd 2: Loving leg kicks. Both damage and stop the retreat. Will also end missed combos with them as they can reach. Against Holl SP, his rushes are making it for a lone punch at end.
  • Rd 3: Volk doing some great work closing the distance. Even now able to keep himself inside Max’s range rather than always needing to close. This is just clearly Volk’s fight at this point, figured out how to attack right lead leg.
  • Rd 4: Volk has found a home for an arching right hand. It’s not an overhand, it’s like a high hook. That could be a potential KO punch next time. I feel like Volk, if he needed to, could have gotten that TD. Volk slow to adjust when Max went back to orth, after he had figured out the SP. Needs feeling out time again.
  • Rd 5: Ok, that leg kick is hurting me at this point. Volk can definitely take some shots, especially body ones. Doesn’t phase him. Some nice clinch body work and elbows there.
    

  [*]Dec W vs Aldo
  

  • Rd 1: Picking at Aldo with smaller stuff so far. Backing up to Aldo. Throwing a lot of leg kicks. Volk missing and hitting air at times. Ends round bullying him on cage.
  • Rd 2: Volk trying to find his ways in, but also jabbing and light leg kicking along the way. Lots of leg kicks, good looking retreats. Good dec winning combos, and not head hunting. Fence to seal the round 2 win.
  • Rd 3: Volk hasn’t slowed. And how he’s reaching Aldo on the retreats. Never let Aldo get comfortable. Was plenty content to win with what he was given and not force stuff.
    

  [*]KO W vs Mendes
  

  • Rd 1: Volk keeping distance from Mendes. Very quick step ins and now the one to push forward. I like his defense, both his guard and head movement together. Little hesitant pulling trigger even with Mendes against the cage? TD worries? Tiny twitchy feints. Mednes gets Volk down with a quick shot, but Volk back to feet. Fast hands for Volk.
  • Rd 2: Volk has a tight guard even when throwing, but think he’s a little too little head movement providing Mendes a target. Ate two drop level punches, each one he had a half guard up that didn’t protect him. Volk’s kicks in this fight look nothing like the game changers they were against Holloway. Over committed to hooks and Mendes ducked and spun him down. Impressive get up. Volk very wide stance. Wow, able to get Mendes off his back. Mendez tired and Volk just throwing power in tight. Finally put him away.

 

[HockeyBjj]

-305 Kamara Usman vs +230 Jorge Masvidal

Saw an impressive stat from UFC’s facebook for Masvidal. This is the most professional fights anyone has ever had before, and yet still getting, a UFC title shot. 48 professional face punch competitions and now finally here with a re-invention of himself. Mad props for getting here. I’ll let others speculate about the late notice fill in. Was he training hard assuming this could happen? Was he just lounging around and will be in a fight to simply make weight??? I’ll just talk about his fighting skill he’s show the last three, or actually 4 fights. Not much to do on the Askren one eh? The Till fight was his best opponent. His other wins I don’t put much stock in other than to see his style. Against Wonderboy he just couldn’t beat the speed, and watching against Till and Diaz as well; yeah. Masvidal is slow. His timing is good and punch accuracy needs way more people talking about it. But Masvidal is slow and I think that’ll be his shortcoming against Usman. He gets beat to the punch and beat on the retreats. Where he shines is in using a wide arms up guard, that frankly I don’t like as opposed to a shell and slipping but he’s the pro not me, that will create forearm clashes with his opponents. It just like, disrupts them and then Mas is in his range to use some multi-punch combos that get through with like 80% landing. Normally you watch a slow mo of a flurry and half miss or all just glancing, but Masvidal will pop a guy 5 times in a row. It’s impressive. The other thing that stood out was how often Masvidal will throw naked kicks. I swear its like his jab replacement so he doesn’t have to try and step in, with opponent stepping back fast. He mixes them up. Some are just for range and to get a reset, others he digs on the legs or especially the body and it’s like a baseball bat to the small ribs. I’m surprised he didn’t manage to drop anyone with them. Wrestling wise he looks good enough. Against anyone other than Usman I’d say he’d have no problem keeping this fight standing or at least getting back to his feet quickly, but this is Kamara Usman and I don’t think it’s good enough to stop that.


Usman looks freaking amazing. He’s fast, explosive (sorry) on his bursts in, and doesn’t need a long level change to still be able to get in on guys’ hips for takedowns. Absolutely draining on guys against the cage and has the cardio to not slow. If he comes in with the RDA or Woodley game plan, 98% chance Usman wins. But we’ve seen this story before, where a wrestler learns to box adequately, and falls in love with that rather than now being able to better use his hands to set up his takedowns. That Colby fight could have been the fight he fell in love with his hands, and I think he was losing that if he didn’t break Colby’s jaw. Usman has some blatant holes in his striking, and he makes up for those with a strong chin. A chin though can fail at any time, and getting punched cleanly loses a decision. The biggest problem from Usman is that he doesn’t return his hands fast to his guard after a jab or straight or hook or anything. That was ok against Colby’s volume striker style, but he’s gonna be in for a rude awakening if he tries to fight Masvidal like that. Seriously, his hands after a punch come back low and only then get back to his chin. Colby caught over the top of this multiple times, Woodley a couple. Also after a combo, he’ll freaking stand there with his hands halfway to his hips. Other times I swear he just decided blocking the 1-2s wasn’t worth the energy to block and so he just casually took them. I hope his boxing coach watched film and worked on that. The other area is he’ll stand in front of a guy and take kicks. He’s looking out for the punches to avoid/block but disregards the kicks unless they’re high. I would say the only other slight thing is his head gets too outside on singles against the cage, and that’s open to a guillotine. RDA and Woodley had decent attempts against him but couldn’t control lower body. Yeah, I brought up three things Usman lacks on but with a favorite I try to find where he’s not perfect to be aware of. Everyone else can (rightly) talk about what a bully on the cage he is and how it’s sure to drain his opponent, the power in his rudimentary striking, how it’s baffling to have both power and cardio like that as well as speed. We’re expected to bet ~300 to win 100 right now if we put it on him, so have to be very sure before taking on that risk imo.

How they matchup- If Usman decides to wrestle, he’ll win this with ease. If he stands and bangs with Masvidal like he did against Colby, maybe the trash talking gets to him or he fell in love with his standup after that amazing fight, this thing is much closer. Usman has some very evident weaknesses with his standup as mentioned, and they’re in areas that Masvidal is good at. 1st, the kicks. He moves forward, tries to stand in the pocket holding it with jabs and looking to eat a shot in return to give a harder one of his own. Leg kicks look like they would be highly effective against him. Masvidal has shown this. Also slipping body kicks under the elbow, which Mas looked very, very good at, are there and those could also back Usman up.


The biggest weakness however, is that USMAN DROPS HIS FUCKING HANDS!!!!!!!!. Oh my god. He is very at risk of getting caught by a much better boxer in Masvidal if he fights the way he fought Covington. Usman’s striking did have a lot of power and speed, and that speed is definitely above Masvidal’s so he’ll be able to set the pace if he wants to dart in and out like he should. Usman will be the one to decide how this fight takes place, and really Masvidal just has to hope he’s dumb. If he chooses to wrestle like the Woodley or RDA fight, the win for his is assured. If he keeps moving for the striking using bursts rather than getting into a war, he could even win a striking battle too. Masvidal looked competent in his scrambles and take down defense, but Usman is just toooo much there. The only red flag with his wrestling is his tendency to leave his head free on singles. Against RDA and Woodley they both had chances at guillotines Usman ultimately escaped, but the chance was there. Masvidal has a modified anaconda sub in the past, and in the fight with Chiesa he also had a near guillotine before that. He hasn’t shown it much but I feel like a solid guillotine is definitely in Masvidal’s tool box from gym trainings. A low cost hedge at high odds of Masvidal by sub wouldn’t be a bad idea. Probably won’t hit, but if masvidal does win I think by sub is as likely than by KO and they’ll be miles apart odds wides.

Jorge Masvidal last 4 fights

Spoiler

[*]TKO W vs Diaz

• Rd 1: Ugh. I had blocked from my mind how cringe that BMF title stuff was. Mas avoiding Diaz early pressure. Good elbows from the clinch drop Diaz. Good punishment from top even with Diaz defending well with his legs. Mas does throw a LOT of kicks. Huh, Mas looked like, complacent and got hit by a slow long left hook. Another left land.
• Rd 2: Yeah, it’s legit. Masvidal is slow. Good eye for openings with his boxing saves him though. Lunging left hand again. Mas some good control in clinch to wear down Diaz after damaging with his strikes. Good scramble after a nice roll by Diaz.
• Rd 3: Fast step in right has landed a few times now. And more powerful body kicks. In trouble in tight, Masvidal will lower his head and throw hooks above with a surprising ability to connect. Lots of clinch stuff now, Masvidal able to control that.

[*]KO W vs Askren

• We all know what happened here. Nothing to break down except make a note of his willingness to do crazy/risky things. I’ll break down an extra fight

[*]KO W vs Darren Till

• Rd 1: Came running out and kicked him right in the nuts rofl. And he gets dropped by a textbook left straight sp vs orth. Good ground scrambling to survive by Mas. Mas is wild, kick caught and shoved to ground. Mas wild hooks throwing and missing, Til lands a clean 1-2. This is like a brawler vs technical. Til backing Mas up to cage. Good kicks by Mas though. A few closing blitzes working.
• Rd 2: Jab backing Mas up, doing alright hooking and throwin kicks to get off cage. Very nice knee tap? Take down. Mas uses kicks as his jab. Mas in a rhythm now, hooking off Till’s straights and slipping them. There it is. You could almost feel the tide change the minute before the KO. Mas just like, ran in and threw a left overhand. Yeah, shades of old Woodley.

[*]Dec L vs Stephen Thompson

• Rd 1: Mas hitting Wonderboy’s way out front lead leg well. Looking backed up and a little timid while trying to figure out Stephen’s rangey style. “Disrupting” type defense on retreat, arms clash rather than blocking punches. Some good kicks, but hasn’t found out how to close the range with punches. Mas moving forward now, but this results in him getting countered.
• Rd 2: Good looking TD attempt, and then smart release of TD to be able to throw within range. Geeze, got frozen like a deer in headlights by foot work and then blasted. Mas looking slow to get out of the way, eating a lot of singles. Mas’ arms will get wide on the defense. Normally works to arm clash, but the gap looks like an opportunity to straight on. Is Mas just legitimately slow? End of round was able to catch a lead hook after a body kick that had some decent power.
• Rd 3: Better moving forward without getting countered now, but not landing a lot significantly. Will be interested to see him not compared to Wonderboy to see if this slow speed look is just due to comparison on a very fast ww or legit. Mas looking better just shelling up and plodding into range. Eating shots and looking gassed now.

Kamaru Usman last 3 fights

Spoiler

[*]KO W vs Covington

• Rd 1: Usman standing ground well striking. Colby landing some and Usman just taking them, maybe a little weak on the defense. Yeah, Usman getting pieced now. There’s trusting your chin, and there’s taking unnecessary shots. Usman gains ground back with a center body shot.
• Rd 2: Just a really good back and forth fight. Both taking turns to lead and to counter, and some flurries where they trade. Usan got the worst of a flurry and took two shots that wobbled him. Usman drops his hands on long shots and that worries me. Good body shots at end of round, but his hands stay low after those too.
• Rd 3: They are just trading, there’s nothing overly sticking out to me from a technical perspective. Usman is now landing the harder blows. Usman loads, but still manages to land in time. More and more body shots, but he reaches on those. Ate a headkick.
• Rd 4: Usman on the wrong end of some hook fests. Hands down after two jabs was what got him into that trouble. Colby found a right high angle hook as Usman doesn’t get his left back in time. Some uppercuts from Colby. This round shows how Masvidal could realistically win against Usman.
• Rd 5: Colby has had like 3 shots in the first minute and a half here that would have knockdown potential against a lesser human. Left hooks and uppercuts. The KO just looked more like Colby not able to take the pain of his broken jaw anymore after one last good crack by a right straight. Colby from that point on was retreating and wincing.

[*]Dec W vs Woodley

• Rd 1: Usman an early shot, Woodley a guillotine attempt. Slight tendency by Usman I think. Super long shot hedge Masvidal by sub might not be a complete waste of money. Usman winning clinch. A TD right agains the cage that had no hope, but instigated a clinch. This round, his striking is for no other reason than to get him in on Woodley’s legs.
• Rd 2: Usman looks like he’ll east some leg kicks. Lands big elbow on clinch exit. Wow. Just a pure power body lock lift and takedown. Usmna mounted and smothering him, but not exploding to try and stop the fight. Complete dominance once he was on top.
• Rd 3: Usman ducked Woodley’s head hunting. Wow. The bodyshots. Tenderizing Woodley’s left side there against cage. Ref keeps separating despite Usma working. I think Woodley stunned him for a fraction of a second. Usman fell into the cage, but then was immediately fine and back to walking Woodley back to the fence.
• Rd 4: More of the same. Utter dominance by Usman obviously. Most entertaining thing is Rogan and Cruz ripping on the ref for standing them up. Ok wow, Usman poured it on, this should have been dangerous for Usman,but it’s 90% Usman landing.
• Rd 5: Another guillotine situation Usman ended up in. This is his biggest flaw, I don’t know if Masvidal can capitalize on it though. Usman slams him, and gets across to negate the guillotine threat.

[*]Dec W vs RDA

• Rd 1: Usman staying in front. Used burst to cover range. Good in clinch but didn’t dominate RDA there like I would have thought. RDA landed a little in close boxing range. Got in deep on hips for TD after feining a burst step in. RDA was able to make a little space and fence walk to his feet. Huh, maybe Mas vs Usman clinch will be closer than a lot of us think. Us just relentless against cage though. Mixes his striking with level changes well. Stuffed TD but then spun it off the cage.
• Rd 2: Few flurries, Us ate a couple but took them well. Usman just a bully on cage. Doesn’t just lean, head pressures and a lot of body shots to drain. Eventually gets low drive single spin for the takedown. Oh wow. That kimura attempt was fairly deep. Good defense by Usman, that could have caught him after the roll if RDA could have cleared his leg over the top. RDA landing a few at end of the round.
• Rd 3: Usman now tagging RDA. Not power, but just picking him apart. Now gets a much, much easier takedown. RDA tries for a takedown but Usman some nice wrestling to counter and be the one to get it. This fight looks clearly won and the rest will just be a formality from this point.
• Rd 4: Usman a good small step in straight right. Have seen that a few times. Better looking boxing here by Usman now that RDA looks so tired. Smart pressure against cage, not risking getting wild to try and force a KO. And then an easy double. Good leg trip when RDA was getting back to his feet. He has RDA just fighting to hear the bell.
• Rd 5: Still showing good clinch damage by Usman. This dude does not tire. Usman gets takedown, but he left his head too outside and RDA got some tight hands for guillotine attempt. Good defense to not let his hips get trapped, but would prefer to not see him that close to losing a won fight. Masvidal does have one sub in the UFC, against Chiesa who’s a good wrestler. Went and watched that finish, it was from the front like a modified anaconda not like an opportunistic guillotine. I wouldn’t be overly worried about

 

[Monster Meat]

Good breakdowns I agree with some of what you wrote but where I disagree is Yan vs aldo. Aldo just isn’t the same fighter and I think the Moraes fight was more about moraes gassing after the first. I think aldo gets hit a lot in this fight and I don’t think he can last the full 5. He’s going to tire and eventually get tkod. My bets on this fight are Yan inside distance at +160.

halloway vs volk. Halloway def needs to make adjustments to win this fight and I don’t agree with him being a +200 underdog. This could very easily be a split dec type of fight and it’s something I wouldn’t want to risk on volk being over a 2- fav. My bet on this one is halloway round 4,5 or dec at +220.

Usman vs masvidal. I think this fight goes only one way...Usman gets takedown after takedown and dominates his way to a dec. masvidal can have success on the feet but Usman won’t allow that to happen for long stretches. Usman by dec at +200 and Usman in round 4,5,dec at +120 for me.

 

[HockeyBjj]

Tangent, where are you getting round 3,4,5 options @Monster Meat? Mine has round 1,2, or 3,4, or 5,dec and a lot of fights I lean decision on could very easily end up round 4 stoppages as one just can’t take the battering/exhaustion any more and turtles up and ref stops it

 

[Monster Meat]

Tangent, where are you getting round 3,4,5 options @Monster Meat? Mine has round 1,2, or 3,4, or 5,dec and a lot of fights I lean decision on could very easily end up round 4 stoppages as one just can’t take the battering/exhaustion any more and turtles up and ref stops it

Fox bet NJ

 

[bl0b]

Was enjoying everything I read up until you called Masvidal slow.

Then I went back and watched about 20 highlight videos looking for a slow guy and couldn't find one anywhere.

Might be one of the strangest things I've read recently.

Masvidal is not slow lol.

 

[DonQ94]

Was enjoying everything I read up until you called Masvidal slow.

Then I went back and watched about 20 highlight videos looking for a slow guy and couldn't find one anywhere.

Might be one of the strangest things I've read recently.

Masvidal is not slow lol.

He is not slow slow, but he was definitely slower than Till and Thompson.

 

[HockeyBjj]

Was enjoying everything I read up until you called Masvidal slow.

Then I went back and watched about 20 highlight videos looking for a slow guy and couldn't find one anywhere.

Might be one of the strangest things I've read recently.

Masvidal is not slow lol.

Don might have hit it, anyone would have looked slow versus Thompson’s weird style. Maybe til is fast as well making Mas look slow by comparison. But watch the actual fights not highlight videos as he does for whatever reason look slower than each of his last opponents. Does have a burst to get inside, the Till Ko looked like a pre-championship belt Woodley moment. But most of the time he can’t back away from his opponents rushes in time to avoid getting tagged, and can’t instigate a move inside if he desires without the other able to slide away in time. Fast hands, but I’m talking body movement.

 

[Black Paladin]

Excellent thread, HockeyBjj.

 

[HockeyBjj]

Excellent thread, HockeyBjj.

Thank you. Ended up being more work than I thought haha. Not sure I’ll do again. Hopefully enables me to make money (would not have made my 2u Over 2.5 rounds bet for Aldo/Yan without this, and made me more confident to bet on Usman at his high odds even with finding the worrying hand dropping problem)

 

[TrueAscension]

Well written but you’re kinda just taking the 3 favorites here no?
Once again I have never seen a rematch play out the same way the first fight did. Ever.

 

[Sadistics]

Well written but you’re kinda just taking the 3 favorites here no?
Once again I have never seen a rematch play out the same way the first fight did. Ever.

Holloway/Aldo 1/2 was pretty damn close to identical

 

[HockeyBjj]

Well written but you’re kinda just taking the 3 favorites here no?
Once again I have never seen a rematch play out the same way the first fight did. Ever.

Not so much taking the favorites other than Usman who I did bring up some areas of weakness whom a Masvidal backer could use to definitely help them justify a +225 bet. Aldo I think could really take it, but it’s reliant on A) Aldo not backing up and B) Yan still then moving forward. Those are kinda big ifs. Where I put my money on that fight tho thanks to this was the over 2.5 rounds line

The Holloway/Volk fight is the biggest one where emotions get the best of me over logic. Volk looked splendid in the first fight, but you said yourself how often does the rematch truly look the same as the first fight? There just a part of me that thinks Max can find a way to adjust, even though one didn’t stick out at film to me. I was really hoping to just something from a past fight he could use more but sadly didn’t.

And favorites are favorites for a reason after all. I’ll take Usman at his price point but definitely not Yan.

 

[TrueAscension]

Holloway/Aldo 1/2 was pretty damn close to identical

got me there

 

[GigaOuts]

Holloway/Aldo 1/2 was pretty damn close to identical

Also T.J Dillashaw vs Renan Barao. I bet quit a bit Dillashw in round 4 and 5, maybe even round 3 too.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

@HockeyBjj deserves absolutely every like he got on his posts. It's a lot of work and hours spent on watching tape and analysing the finer details of these fights.

 

[Tirimasuperman]

Garbrandt/TJ

 

[SalvadorCollie]

Single or unemployed. Great analysis btw.

 

[Black Paladin]

Thank you. Ended up being more work than I thought haha. Not sure I’ll do again. Hopefully enables me to make money (would not have made my 2u Over 2.5 rounds bet for Aldo/Yan without this, and made me more confident to bet on Usman at his high odds even with finding the worrying hand dropping problem)

Even if you don't go full HockeyBjj Breakdown next time, still going to look for your insights.

Many don't realize this, but the process is more important than the results, over time. Your predictions become better, and you can profit from them more easily.