Was this win by Jones easy to predict?

[DestinedAussie]

It was a dominant win and amazing performance considering everything. But I don't buy that this fight was easy to predict. Many questions loomed over the bout.

1) Jones success at adding lbs to his frame was in question. The dad bod look seemed to suggest issues making this work. His 10 years of bluffing a transition to HW also confused things.
2) Jones age and ring rust were factors - would time away from the cage and a long career negatively impact him ?
3) Gane had over a year to improve on his wrestling and TDD. He apparently was training in the brutal wrestling pits of Dagestan without break, or was he just playing FIFA?
4) Jones last three performances against some subpar competition (Reyes, Smith) were very underwhelming. Would he dominate a HW in a weak division or struggle to make things work against a guy much more athletic and heavy handed than his previous competition ?
5) Was Jones his usual self, aka a hyper competitive freak training nonstop during his three year break, or was he a guy struggling with demons looking for a last paycheck ? If the former, why didn't he come back sooner ?
6) was Jones Shook in the press conference, or just anxious after not having dealt with the media for a long time?

It was hard to be confident for the right reasons given the above. Curious what you based your predictions on. @xhaydenx

This fight wasn't at all easy to predict. I generally thought people on sherdog thought Gane was a strong fav and people constantly pointed to Jones poor performances in his last showing at LHW as evidence.

I don't think anyone, even the Jones fans, thought he would win that easily. The only person who believed was Drake, and when he wins a bet you know the whole world has gone crazy.

 

[wildchild88]

I picked it, and won money on it.

Gane's grappling was just so terrible, I knew that he was going to lose.

He really does move like a whitebelt on the ground, truly like a fish out of water. I knew that if he got down, he would be controlled and submitted very easily.

Jones was training with Cejudo, who is the best strategist in mma in my opinion. He knows great set ups, and would be the perfect advisor for this fight.

Jones also seemed laser focused, while Gane seemed a bit too careless..

This was an easy pick for me.

 

[mmainvestigations]

I picked it, and won money on it.

Gane's grappling was just so terrible, I knew that he was going to lose.

He really does move like a whitebelt on the ground, truly like a fish outback water. I knew that if he got down, he would be controlled and submitted very easily.

Jones was training with Cejudo, who is the best strategist in mma in my opinion. He knows great set ups, and would be the perfect advisor for this fight.

Jones also seemed laser focused, while Gane seemed a bit too careless..

This was an easy pick for me.

I think grappling experts had the best chance to predict this fight well in advance. You'd have to have specific knowledge on what types of grappling errors Gane made in the first fight and precisely what those errors implied about his grappling level. Jon Jones and his team likely saw these things.

 

[Savagewolf]

Mostly yes. MMA fights are never 100% predictable, there is always that chance.

In Jones vs Gane, the only real issue was whether Gane could keep it standing or not. If he could, he had that shot. If he didn't, then what we saw on Saturday would happen and Jones would be dominant.

The skill level of Jones has never been in doubt. His size at 205 was never in doubt, he was always on the bigger side. The only real issues was "ring rust" and size. Size was a non-issue. He properly bulked up and was already had the genetics and willingness to do the gym time for it.

Ring rust could have been an issue, but taking Gane to the ground where there was a massive skill gap eliminated that.

Bookies had it pretty solid for Jones. Not a massive difference, but enough that they too thought the way to make the most money was to call Jones the favorite.

 

[Elvis.]

This is exactly how I seen the fight going , maybe not quite that quick but I figured he would sub him . Now every “professional gambler” that I listen to has Gane by decision, they honestly talked me out of betting a lot more

 

[RicardinhoPT]

It really was a question of which Jon would show up on fight night. I'm glad champ Jon showed up though!