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War Room OT Discussion

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Lead said:
@Prime Ang , @Jack V Savage , @Rex Kwon Do

Who do we have winning the main and co main tonight?
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I'm rooting for Pettis, but he clearly had a bad cut and his gas tank looked quite bad against Oliveira so I'm leaning towards Max being the favorite here. He's really tough so putting him away early is unlikely, and I'm not sure FW Pettis (especially after failing to make weight) has the gastank to take it to him in the later rounds.

As far as Brown vs Cowboy, another pick em. The battle of the glass bodies. Still, going by recent performances, Brown just got KOed by a completely shot Ellenberger, and before that he was dominated by Maia (no shame there, of course). Meanwhile Cowboy at WW has looked unstoppable. He's notoriously hard to beat when he doesn't have all that pressure on him, too. I guess for that reason I'll favor Cowboy.
 
Rex Kwon Do said:
I'm rooting for Pettis, but he clearly had a bad cut and his gas tank looked quite bad against Oliveira so I'm leaning towards Max being the favorite here. He's really tough so putting him away early is unlikely, and I'm not sure FW Pettis (especially after failing to make weight) has the gastank to take it to him in the later rounds.

As far as Brown vs Cowboy, another pick em. The battle of the glass bodies. Still, going by recent performances, Brown just got KOed by a completely shot Ellenberger, and before that he was dominated by Maia (no shame there, of course). Meanwhile Cowboy at WW has looked unstoppable. He's notoriously hard to beat when he doesn't have all that pressure on him, too. I guess for that reason I'll favor Cowboy.
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Cowboy definitely has too be seen as the favorite. I lean to Holloway also and not just because Pettis is looking bad. Holloway is just that good as well imo.

How about Gastelum / Kennedy ? I'm a fan of Gastelum but I think 185 isn't going to be a great place for him. His fights keep getting cancelled or him missing weight though so I'll be happy to finally see a fight.
 
Lead said:
Cowboy definitely has too be seen as the favorite. I lean to Holloway also and not just because Pettis is looking bad. Holloway is just that good as well imo.

How about Gastelum / Kennedy ? I'm a fan of Gastelum but I think 185 isn't going to be a great place for him. His fights keep getting cancelled or him missing weight though so I'll be happy to finally see a fight.
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I love Kennedy and hate habitual weight missers so I'm hoping Tim wrecks him.

He's much bigger and has very strong grappling sklls so I think Tim can get it done.
 
Lead said:
@Prime Ang , @Jack V Savage , @Rex Kwon Do

Who do we have winning the main and co main tonight?
Click to expand...

Would have given you a longer answer if you asked yesterday. Got $700 riding on Max. Long story short: Pettis can finish at any time, but I think Holloway can take advantage of his passivity and susceptibility to pressuring footwork. I like Cerrone over Brown (but not at the odds--staying away from that one) and Kennedy over Gastelum.
 
Rex Kwon Do said:
I love Kennedy and hate habitual weight missers so I'm hoping Tim wrecks him.

He's much bigger and has very strong grappling sklls so I think Tim can get it done.
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Yea, the weight cuts are disappointing. He could've had a future at 170
 
Jack V Savage said:
Would have given you a longer answer if you asked yesterday. Got $700 riding on Max. Long story short: Pettis can finish at any time, but I think Holloway can take advantage of his passivity and susceptibility to pressuring footwork. I like Cerrone over Brown (but not at the odds--staying away from that one) and Kennedy over Gastelum.
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For Cerrone / Brown, what makes you not like the odds? Do you see Brown having a chance at a KO or you think he can best him out of three rounds?
 
Lead said:
For Cerrone / Brown, what makes you not like the odds? Do you see Brown having a chance at a KO or you think he can best him out of three rounds?
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Both, really, but more the KO. Cerrone would have been a good bet if I thought his chances were better than 75% (roughly). I thought that his chances were around that or a little worse. In retrospect, I still think it wouldn't have been a good bet.
 
#BlessedBankAccount

459515093_1480451.gif
 
Jack V Savage said:
Would have given you a longer answer if you asked yesterday. Got $700 riding on Max. Long story short: Pettis can finish at any time, but I think Holloway can take advantage of his passivity and susceptibility to pressuring footwork. I like Cerrone over Brown (but not at the odds--staying away from that one) and Kennedy over Gastelum.
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Seems like Pettis made a conscious effort to keep his back away from the fence (one of his big problems normally), but while he succeeded there, he wasn't advancing well either (that is, he made a needed change to his approach but he didn't execute well). He's incredibly talented, but he might have the worst footwork of any elite fighter in MMA. I think Roufus has served him well over the years, but he desperately needs a new camp now.

And it goes without saying that Holloway looked brilliant.
 
Greoric said:
Good call.
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Thanks. I thought it was a particularly badly priced fight--worst PPV main event odds since Werdum/Cain (which I thought should have been almost even). Holloway would have had to have been -400 for me to stay away. No way Pettis could win a decision against him, and while he's a great finisher, Holloway is really tough and broadly skilled (top 10 P4P IMO).

Also feel vindicated about Cerrone/Brown.
 
Fawlty said:
#BlessedBankAccount

459515093_1480451.gif
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Jack V Savage said:
Thanks. I thought it was a particularly badly priced fight--worst PPV main event odds since Werdum/Cain (which I thought should have been almost even). Holloway would have had to have been -400 for me to stay away. No way Pettis could win a decision against him, and while he's a great finisher, Holloway is really tough and broadly skilled (top 10 P4P IMO).

Also feel vindicated about Cerrone/Brown.
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Did you do it early?

I feel like an idiot because I started betting last year and was constantly doing parlays and losing money. This year, I decided to ban myself from doing it and just bet fight by fight and it's like night and day (really losses and winnings) from 2015.
 
Lead said:
Did you do it early?

I feel like an idiot because I started betting last year and was constantly doing parlays and losing money. This year, I decided to ban myself from doing it and just bet fight by fight and it's like night and day (really losses and winnings) from 2015.
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I put 500 on the day of the fight, the other 200 was early.

I did extremely well early, when I think the base was dumber. Then there was a period when lots of guys were getting wrestlefucked by inferior competition, and you had to think it would happen to anyone who hasn't shown an ability to avoid it. I got killed in that period, and then I overcompensated and had some tough times when things started changing again. Stayed away for a bit, but I've been doing well lately. Learned a lot by betting on fights.
 
Jack V Savage said:
I put 500 on the day of the fight, the other 200 was early.

I did extremely well early, when I think the base was dumber. Then there was a period when lots of guys were getting wrestlefucked by inferior competition, and you had to think it would happen to anyone who hasn't shown an ability to avoid it. I got killed in that period, and then I overcompensated and had some tough times when things started changing again. Stayed away for a bit, but I've been doing well lately. Learned a lot by betting on fights.
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Yea. I think my problem just was putting too much on a streak of right answers rather than each individual one. I didn't know if my individual picks would actually net out to a good outcome so I always wanted to throw in another pick to better the odds. The reality though is the odds have been just fine stand alone for the way I've gone and make me focus solely on the match itself and whether the line is worth it.


Holloway had really nice odds early on when it was announced
 
Gregolian said:
Nah, more the type that think he could beat HWs.
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I don't think he could win a title, but I definitely think he has a fighting chance. Hell, I won BJJ tournaments in undergrad at heavyweight after I cut to 140. They're slow and stiff... like they're stuck in the mud almost.
 
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