War Room OT Discussion v2

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This discussion reminds me, @Fawlty, I think that winners of big upsets tend to be overrated for a bit because a lot of people--including analysts--are really reluctant to just say, "so and so got lucky," which undeniably does happen sometimes. Don't know how well it holds up in MMA, but in boxing, big favorites tend to be undervalued because the lines start attracting "what the hell" bets. I suspect (no research to back this up and it could be wrong) that in MMA, titles make people overvalued.
 
Jack V Savage said:
This discussion reminds me, @Fawlty, I think that winners of big upsets tend to be overrated for a bit because a lot of people--including analysts--are really reluctant to just say, "so and so got lucky," which undeniably does happen sometimes. Don't know how well it holds up in MMA, but in boxing, big favorites tend to be undervalued because the lines start attracting "what the hell" bets. I suspect (no research to back this up and it could be wrong) that in MMA, titles make people overvalued.
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People will probably overrate Rose for example. I doubt she's even top 3 in the division. I don't know if Bisping was overrated for his title, on balance. Seems like most people recognized he's not as good as other contenders. It's an interesting question and I don't know if analysis of historical betting lines would be able to answer that one.

The boxing comparison is always awkward because boxing results are far more significant in terms of skill.
 
Damn, just saw that Dana said that GSP will stay at 185 and fight Whittaker. I don't want to see that. I mean, I'll watch the fight, but I'll be dreading and expecting a bad outcome for Georges.
 
Jack V Savage said:
Damn, just saw that Dana said that GSP will stay at 185 and fight Whittaker. I don't want to see that. I mean, I'll watch the fight, but I'll be dreading and expecting a bad outcome for Georges.
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Agreed, and maybe I'm rationalizing, but I believe Bisping fought exceptionally poorly against GSP. He had success nearly every time he pushed in, and handled the takedown game very well, but he remained tentative, just waiting to get pounded. I chalk it up to a psychological defeat more than a skill defeat. And obviously Whit is far better than Bisping, and has a stronger mind.
 
Jack V Savage said:
Damn, just saw that Dana said that GSP will stay at 185 and fight Whittaker. I don't want to see that. I mean, I'll watch the fight, but I'll be dreading and expecting a bad outcome for Georges.
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That's pretty much what Whittaker said.
 
Jack V Savage said:
Damn, just saw that Dana said that GSP will stay at 185 and fight Whittaker. I don't want to see that. I mean, I'll watch the fight, but I'll be dreading and expecting a bad outcome for Georges.
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I'll bet on GSP for that fight when the time comes, if you're interested.
 
Well you have to grain of salt whatever Dana says in the immediate days after a fight when it comes to match making.

But I think GSP isn't completely out of it vs Whittaker. GSP would be the most calculated fighter Robert faced -- won't try to spam lumbering power shots like Yoel did when he couldn't get the take down and won't spam takedowns like Souza did. He also won't spaz attack like Brunson did.

I think timing and cardio (da riddum) were more a factor of ring rust than weight gain.

I think Robert takes it but I wouldn't be worried for GSP -- give him a solid 35-40 percent chance.

I'm actually more worried about Woodley -- GSP historically does worse against shorter grapple base fighters.
 
Fawlty said:
Agreed, and maybe I'm rationalizing, but I believe Bisping fought exceptionally poorly against GSP. He had success nearly every time he pushed in, and handled the takedown game very well, but he remained tentative, just waiting to get pounded. I chalk it up to a psychological defeat more than a skill defeat. And obviously Whit is far better than Bisping, and has a stronger mind.
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<JerryWWF>
 
Fawlty said:
People will probably overrate Rose for example. I doubt she's even top 3 in the division. I don't know if Bisping was overrated for his title, on balance. Seems like most people recognized he's not as good as other contenders. It's an interesting question and I don't know if analysis of historical betting lines would be able to answer that one.

The boxing comparison is always awkward because boxing results are far more significant in terms of skill.
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I agree with the premise that underdog winners tend to go overrated (not by much) but Rose doesn't fit into that category -- JP has really helped her striking and she looked way more crisp and accurate than JJ, albeit it was a small sample size.

I think she is legit and people got caught up more on the JJ hype.

Rose also has a decent ground game for the division
 
Fawlty said:
You don't think so?
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No. Especially mentally. There is no reason to think he's tougher mentally than Mike. He is faster, but that's it. I think GSP will take the fight, and beat him.

I think you're doing what you just talked about, and overrating him because he has a belt. Romero is 40. Jacare is almost 38, and neither guy is even close to GSP's striking ability.
 
Fawlty said:
Hasn't he at least emerged above the other contenders, who themselves should all handle Bisping most of the time?
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I don't put him above Rockhold. I think Anderson could beat him too, frankly. I think Jacare and Romero are both done. Too old, and too hard to juice now with USADA. He deserves his spot, and his interim title though, for sure. I'm also not convinced he would have beat Bisping like everyone else seems to be.
 
JudoThrowFiasco said:
I agree with the premise that underdog winners tend to go overrated (not by much) but Rose doesn't fit into that category -- JP has really helped her striking and she looked way more crisp and accurate than JJ, albeit it was a small sample size.

I think she is legit and people got caught up more on the JJ hype.

Rose also has a decent ground game for the division
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She's also only 25.
 
HomerThompson said:
People are way overrating Whiataker right now.
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Overrating him!?

He's completely outclassed Yoel, Brunson and Souza in his last three. That's a hell of a streak (add in Natal, Hall and Tavares) and there's no way Whittaker can be seen as overrated
 
HomerThompson said:
No. Especially mentally. There is no reason to think he's tougher mentally than Mike. He is faster, but that's it. I think GSP will take the fight, and beat him.

I think you're doing what you just talked about, and overrating him because he has a belt. Romero is 40. Jacare is almost 38, and neither guy is even close to GSP's striking ability.
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I don't rate the interim belt, but you could be right that I'm not factoring Yoel/Jacare's ages enough. I think he's mentally tougher than Bisping just based on Bisping folding badly last night. He was ridiculously tentative despite good success w/his aggression & TDD.
 
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