War Room OT Discussion v2

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Fawlty said:
That's because of the bookie's commission, sometimes called juice or vig, though those terms aren't technically correct.

If both are -110, that means the book is taking a 4.55% commission.
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And -115 is more common when it's even.

Fawlty said:
Yeah that's why sportsbetters lose long term, and I rarely believe anybody who claims to be up over the long run. You have to be a fucking animal to beat the vig.
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I'm up long term, and my account consistently trends up. Not bragging (not saying I'm a fucking animal), just saying that it's definitely doable for a regular person. But, yeah, it's only every few events that I see a legitimately bad line (I think people who bet all the time might have more trouble). Used to be a lot more common, and the bad ones used to be way worse. I remember betting way more than I could afford to lose on Randy as an underdog against Tito.

If you read Matthew Holt, he usually says who the top liabilities to the book are. Even with the vig, books can lose if the action is too tilted. The line is adjusted to try to get money even, but that isn't as easy as you might think, especially since action comes in choppy (a single bet could be worth more than a whole day's worth).
 
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Gandhi said:
Yeahhhhhhhhhjjjjjhhjhhhhhhhhjj !?!?!?!??!?’vnvnvnvnv


Wooo hoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


GSP!
GSP!
GSP!
GSP!
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Man, I felt as nervous as if it were me about to fight when it was starting. And when Bisping seemed to get some momentum in the second, I was really worried. Thrilling end. I got off my seat.
 
Jack V Savage said:
And -115 is more common when it's even.



I'm up long term, and my account consistently trends up. Not bragging (not saying I'm a fucking animal), just saying that it's definitely doable for a regular person. But, yeah, it's only every few events that I see a legitimately bad line (I think people who bet all the time might have more trouble). Used to be a lot more common, and the bad ones used to be way worse. I remember betting way more than I could afford to lose on Randy as an underdog against Tito.

If you read Matthew Holt, he usually says who the top liabilities to the book are. Even with the vig, books can lose if the action is too tilted. The line is adjusted to try to get money even, but that isn't as easy as you might think, especially since action comes in choppy (a single bet could be worth more than a whole day's worth).
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I wonder if your results are statistically significant. What's your n? Mine is maybe 150, and I don't consider that to be enough even though I'm up.
 
Fawlty said:
I wonder if your results are statistically significant. What's your n? Mine is maybe 150, and I don't consider that to be enough even though I'm up.
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Don't know exactly (or even enough to feel comfortable ballparking), but it would be a lot more than that.

We can try a challenge going forward.
 
Jack V Savage said:
Don't know exactly (or even enough to feel comfortable ballparking), but it would be a lot more than that.

We can try a challenge going forward.
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I'm trending...uh...down. It could be fun but I'd lose that one.
 
Fawlty said:
I'm trending...uh...down. It could be fun but I'd lose that one.
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Not me vs. you. Like me or a collective vs. the book publicly (or in PMs) just to show it can be done over, say, a year. Sample size issues there, too, but at least it would be a forward-looking test. I don't have one, but I bet you could find an Elo-based strategy that would show up as being effective in backtesting (past results, etc., though).
 
Jack V Savage said:
Not me vs. you. Like me or a collective vs. the book publicly (or in PMs) just to show it can be done over, say, a year. Sample size issues there, too, but at least it would be a forward-looking test. I don't have one, but I bet you could find an Elo-based strategy that would show up as being effective in backtesting (past results, etc., though).
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hmm, I've never considered that. Off the bat I'm thinking k could be an issue because I'd have to model it myself (tries have been made but I don't like anything out there), and it's a lot of number crunching for a humble lazy student with only intro stats under my belt. This guy used frickin' 250 for k: https://fantasyfights.wordpress.com/2013/01/14/top-25-elo-rankings-are-here/. He got some good defensible results in 2012.

I like the idea still.
 
Fawlty said:
hmm, I've never considered that. Off the bat I'm thinking k could be an issue because I'd have to model it myself (tries have been made but I don't like anything out there), and it's a lot of number crunching for a humble lazy student with only intro stats under my belt. This guy used frickin' 250 for k: https://fantasyfights.wordpress.com/2013/01/14/top-25-elo-rankings-are-here/. He got some good defensible results in 2012.

I like the idea still.
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There used to be a site that had a calculation that worked pretty well in general. I used to use it and then make some adjustments to ballpark a percentage estimate of the odds (still just a first step in the process--I'd want to do a qualitative analysis after that). Used it kind of like an idea screen, though.
 
Jack V Savage said:
Man, I felt as nervous as if it were me about to fight when it was starting. And when Bisping seemed to get some momentum in the second, I was really worried. Thrilling end. I got off my seat.
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I had like 20 people from my new gym over for a birthday party ufc thing. And the whole room was, “ I like GSP, but bsping is big band I am more interested in the other fights anyway.”. I kept calling him Forrest Griffin.

That really changed when the fight started. I was so nervous. When I had my first mma “comeback” (in my 30s when I started to actually compete amateur rather than fuck around at the gym”). GSP was just leaving TKO and starting at the UFC. I got to spar with him, did some drilling with him for the trig fight, etc.

This really meant a ton to me. So if you stood, I literally flew through the fucking ceiling.

Watching Firas’ little brother get tko’d by a spinning back elbow was tough to watch though and the only downer of the night.
 
Man, what a hangover, being 30 sucks. But Jesus Christ, what a night. Was sad to see Joanna go down like that but the Dillishaw and GSP wins got me hyped. GSP really looks like he believes in his timing and power, those strikes were as crisp or moreso than I ever remember them. Props to Bisping for going out like a warrior.
 
Gandhi said:
Watching Firas’ little brother get tko’d by a spinning back elbow was tough to watch though and the only downer of the night.
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Ramos was a big ask for Zahabi's second UFC fight. I had him coming back and taking the second. He was doing well in the third until he was stopped as well.
 
Ruprecht said:
Man what a great event. Even better because I thought I'd caught a spoiler, but it must have just been a prediction.



I feel like GSP is a tougher matchup stylistically for Whittaker than Bisping.
With Bisping his only major worry was the gas tank, otherwise it's two guys with a boxing heavy style, with Whittaker being faster and hitting harder.
That said, if he can beat Romero I think he can handle the takedowns over a slower, oversized GSP.
GSP sounded like he wanted to go back down though.
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Its definitely an interesting match-up -- i agree that GSP gives Bobby Knuckles more to think about than Bisping, but GSP it not going to shake off Roberts punches as well as he did against mike.

Robert is also super underrated grappling wise and does have a solid karate background (wonderboy fight notwithstanding) I feel that Whittaker has what it takes to be a major star and a showcase against GSP would be a great coming out party for him
 
JudoThrowFiasco said:
Its definitely an interesting match -up -- i agree that GSP gives Bobby Knuckles more to think about than Bisping but GSP it not going to shake of Roberts punches as well as he did against mike.

Robert is also super underrated grappling wise and does have a solid karate background (wonderboy fight notwithstanding) I feel that Whittaker has what it takes to be a major star and a showcase against GSP would be a great coming out party for him
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Yeah, becoming Australia's first UFC champ in Perth (who only fixed their "no cage fighting" rule this year) against GSP would be huge!
GSP has more weapons, the timing and the fight IQ to use them, but he looked slow to me tonight.
Whittaker's a finisher, and he's improved noticeably with each outing. His takedown defence is better than Bispings, he's faster and he hits harder. He's also more comfortable mixing in the kicks and elbows and has better head movement. He doesn't cover as much ground as Bisping (who uses footwork rather than head movement for evasion), but his cardio has never been an issue either.
With his wins over Jacare and Romero, I think he's probably too much for GSP unless GSP puts on a considerably better performance than tonight.
 
Ruprecht said:
Yeah, becoming Australia's first UFC champ in Perth (who only fixed their "no cage fighting" rule this year) against GSP would be huge!
GSP has more weapons, the timing and the fight IQ to use them, but he looked slow to me tonight.
Whittaker's a finisher, and he's improved noticeably with each outing. His takedown defence is better than Bispings, he's faster and he hits harder. He's also more comfortable mixing in the kicks and elbows and has better head movement. He doesn't cover as much ground as Bisping (who uses footwork rather than head movement for evasion), but his cardio has never been an issue either.
With his wins over Jacare and Souza, I think he's probably too much for GSP unless GSP puts on a considerably better performance than tonight.
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I'll go further and say that GSP would be crazy to take that fight. I doubt he would, though (and I don't hold that against him--he's not a MW).
 
Jack V Savage said:
I'll go further and say that GSP would be crazy to take that fight. I doubt he would, though (and I don't hold that against him--he's not a MW).
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Yeah, it didn't sound like he was going to stay at MW from the post fight interview.
No sure about you, but I had Whittaker, Jacare or Romero taking the belt from Bisping if they fought.
 
lol at betting on Bisping. told ya. i was surprised but betting on MMA is stupid as I have already learned.
 
Ruprecht said:
Yeah, it didn't sound like he was going to stay at MW from the post fight interview.
No sure about you, but I had Whittaker, Jacare or Romero taking the belt from Bisping if they fought.
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Absolutely. And not just those three.
 
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