Social War Room Lounge Thread #325: PotWR Edition

[Mr Holmes]

I think he's basically right, to the extent your house is a good investment at all its because it's subsidized by the state. To be clear I mean as a financial investment, obviously for lots of people there's subjective value to home ownership that matters a lot.

How are homes subsidized by the state?

 

[Islam Imamate]

How are homes subsidized by the state?

At the federal level there's tax deductions for interest on mortgages as well government insured lending like FHA and USDA loans that facilitate access to 30 year, fixed interest mortgages at below market rates. State and local governments also have their own programs, for example Miami Dade County has something called the Homebuyer's Down Payment Assistance Program.

Imagine if you could take out a government backed, 30 year fixed rate loan with 3.5% down to invest in ETFs and then deduct the interest on that loan off your taxes and not only that but your local government helps you cover the down payment. Under those circumstances I don't think you could argue that homes would be, on average, a better investment than the ETFs even if individual properties might outperform the market.

 

[AnGrYcRoW]

I don't work in the field at all but I wouldn't trust AI generated code. I'd be surprised to learn companies are shedding human programmers.

It's happening now


Last year, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang claimed coding might be dead in the water with the prevalence of AI. Instead, he recommended biology, education, manufacturing, or farming as plausible career options for the next generation. Amazon Web Services CEO Matt Garman echoed Huang's sentiments, indicating:

"If you go forward 24 months from now, or some amount of time — I can't exactly predict where it is — it's possible that most developers are not coding."

Is software engineering dead in the water? Mark Zuckerberg says mid-level AI engineers might claim coding jobs from professionals at Meta in 2025

Meta CEO says AI agents might claim jobs from humans writing apps and AI code in 2025.

www.windowscentral.com

There will likely be a need for programmers for the foreseeable future I just don't think it's the growth field it was even three years ago

 

[Mr Holmes]

It's happening now


Last year, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang claimed coding might be dead in the water with the prevalence of AI. Instead, he recommended biology, education, manufacturing, or farming as plausible career options for the next generation. Amazon Web Services CEO Matt Garman echoed Huang's sentiments, indicating:

"If you go forward 24 months from now, or some amount of time — I can't exactly predict where it is — it's possible that most developers are not coding."

Is software engineering dead in the water? Mark Zuckerberg says mid-level AI engineers might claim coding jobs from professionals at Meta in 2025

Meta CEO says AI agents might claim jobs from humans writing apps and AI code in 2025.

www.windowscentral.com

There will likely be a need for programmers for the foreseeable future I just don't think it's the growth field it was even three years ago

From Nvidia which stands to profit from AI. Most of the industry agrees coders are still going to be needed.

 

[AnGrYcRoW]

From Nvidia which stands to profit from AI. Most of the industry agrees coders are still going to be needed.

I said just that but I sure as hell wouldn't council a young person to go into programming as a profession .

 

[Mr Holmes]

I said just that but I sure as hell wouldn't council a young person to go into programming as a profession .

Software Developers, Quality Assurance Analysts, and Testers

Software developers design computer applications or programs. Software quality assurance analysts and testers identify problems with applications or programs and report defects.

www.bls.gov

Overall employment of software developers, quality assurance analysts, and testers is projected to grow 17 percent from 2023 to 2033, much faster than the average for all occupations.

Being a software dev I'm probably biased, but I still think its a great career to go in.

 

[AnGrYcRoW]

Software Developers, Quality Assurance Analysts, and Testers

Software developers design computer applications or programs. Software quality assurance analysts and testers identify problems with applications or programs and report defects.

www.bls.gov

Being a software dev I'm probably biased, but I still think its a great career to go in.

It's risky in my opinion, isn't likely to be oversaturated ?

As in there will be more qualified people than jobs in the next few years ?

 

[Yehudim]

At the federal level there's tax deductions for interest on mortgages as well government insured lending like FHA and USDA loans that facilitate access to 30 year, fixed interest mortgages at below market rates. State and local governments also have their own programs, for example Miami Dade County has something called the Homebuyer's Down Payment Assistance Program.

Imagine if you could take out a government backed, 30 year fixed rate loan with 3.5% down to invest in ETFs and then deduct the interest on that loan off your taxes and not only that but your local government helps you cover the down payment. Under those circumstances I don't think you could argue that homes would be, on average, a better investment than the ETFs even if individual properties might outperform the market.

This is probably why we have the lowest wages and yet people are still able to buy houses over here. Plus, all the fraud whether they're lying to Uncle Sam or just scamming people.

 

[Islam Imamate]

This is probably why we have the lowest wages and yet people are still able to buy houses over here. Plus, all the fraud whether they're lying to Uncle Sam or just scamming people.

At first I thought you were talking about America relative to Europe but then you mentioned fraud and I realized you were talking about South Florida.

 

[Andy Capp]

It's happening now


Last year, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang claimed coding might be dead in the water with the prevalence of AI. Instead, he recommended biology, education, manufacturing, or farming as plausible career options for the next generation. Amazon Web Services CEO Matt Garman echoed Huang's sentiments, indicating:

"If you go forward 24 months from now, or some amount of time — I can't exactly predict where it is — it's possible that most developers are not coding."

Is software engineering dead in the water? Mark Zuckerberg says mid-level AI engineers might claim coding jobs from professionals at Meta in 2025

Meta CEO says AI agents might claim jobs from humans writing apps and AI code in 2025.

www.windowscentral.com

There will likely be a need for programmers for the foreseeable future I just don't think it's the growth field it was even three years ago

This is just marketing.

The key part here is the bold text. I strongly believe being able to rely on AI code is much further off than 2 years. Not that there won't be shoddy companies using it to produce all kinds of code that is insecure, full of flaws, or even entirely non-functional--there are scammers in every field. But I think it would be a huge mistake for any company that cares about a reputation for quality to put too much stock in it.

I concur with the last sentence though. It's not a career I would pursue now were I a young person choosing an area of study or just entering the workforce. But that's a far from saying, "Most of them will lose their jobs before long."

 

[Yehudim]

At first I thought you were talking about America relative to Europe but then you mentioned fraud and I realized you were talking about South Florida.

South Florida is such an unfair generalization, it’s just Miami and Miami people (Cubans & Venezuelans) that move to other parts of Florida

 

[Rob Battisti]

I think he's basically right, to the extent your house is a good investment at all its because it's subsidized by the state. To be clear I mean as a financial investment, obviously for lots of people there's subjective value to home ownership that matters a lot.

In what ways are you referring to your house being subsidized by the state?

Just saw your response to Holmes. Nevermind.

 

[Rob Battisti]

I’ve never seen anyone call USDA or FHA loans “subsidizing” a home. Looks like 13% are FHA and 5% are USDA in the USA. It’s a weird take to say “a house is only an investment if you are getting a lower rate through a government loan” when such a low % of mortgages are subject to these kinds of loans.

All to say, it’s a bad take but everyone is entitled to their opinion.

 

[Islam Imamate]

I’ve never seen anyone call USDA or FHA loans “subsidizing” a home.

Do you disagree with that characterization?

Looks like 13% are FHA and 5% are USDA in the USA. It’s a weird take to say “a house is only an investment if you are getting a lower rate through a government loan” when such a low % of mortgages are subject to these kinds of loans.

I didn't say its only an investment, though maybe you meant say "only a good investment", if you get it through a government backed loan but I do think it makes a lot more sense when you rely on government subsidies which can help you get the down payment, allows you to write off the interest on your taxes, and guarantees a 30 year fixed interest mortgage at below market rates.

The proportion of FHA and USDA loans differs years to year but its about 15%-20% which is not an insignificant figure. The figure is higher when you look at those loans for primary residences, as opposed to investment properties whose loans aren't backed by the government, and specifically first time homebuyers. I'm seeing differing figures but a report from last year suggests about ~45% of first lien mortgages are from GSEs

GSEs buy and sell mortgage loans, and they're the key to keeping the mortgage market afloat. Loans eligible for GSE purchase — also called conforming loans — make up about 45% of first-lien mortgages, as they are often easier to qualify for, offer lower interest rates, and help return capital to lenders.

That's not an insignificant figure. In general first time homebuyers and those looking for a primary residence are more likely to rely on GSEs for mortgages given investment properties don't qualify.

 

[Cajun]

I still have my Tardcoin locked away in a secret location

You keep up with him?

 

[Limbo Pete]

You keep up with him?

No, but I still have my investment

 

[Andy Capp]

Do you disagree with that characterization?

I didn't say its only an investment, though maybe you meant say "only a good investment", if you get it through a government backed loan but I do think it makes a lot more sense when you rely on government subsidies which can help you get the down payment, allows you to write off the interest on your taxes, and guarantees a 30 year fixed interest mortgage at below market rates.

The proportion of FHA and USDA loans differs years to year but its about 15%-20% which is not an insignificant figure. The figure is higher when you look at those loans for primary residences, as opposed to investment properties whose loans aren't backed by the government, and specifically first time homebuyers. I'm seeing differing figures but a report from last year suggests about ~45% of first lien mortgages are from GSEs

That's not an insignificant figure. In general first time homebuyers and those looking for a primary residence are more likely to rely on GSEs for mortgages given investment properties don't qualify.

The thing is, once you've got some equity thanks to that initial low interest loan, you can leverage that plus the increase in market price of the home over time to purchase additional properties.

 

[Rob Battisti]

Do you disagree with that characterization?

I didn't say its only an investment, though maybe you meant say "only a good investment", if you get it through a government backed loan but I do think it makes a lot more sense when you rely on government subsidies which can help you get the down payment, allows you to write off the interest on your taxes, and guarantees a 30 year fixed interest mortgage at below market rates.

The proportion of FHA and USDA loans differs years to year but its about 15%-20% which is not an insignificant figure. The figure is higher when you look at those loans for primary residences, as opposed to investment properties whose loans aren't backed by the government, and specifically first time homebuyers. I'm seeing differing figures but a report from last year suggests about ~45% of first lien mortgages are from GSEs

That's not an insignificant figure. In general first time homebuyers and those looking for a primary residence are more likely to rely on GSEs for mortgages given investment properties don't qualify.

I don’t apologize for not subscribing to the “you’ll own nothing and be happy” model for living.

I disagree wholeheartedly with the assertion that a home is not an investment vehicle. I also think it’s important to note that my opinion is not contingent on your mortgage being a part of USDA or FHA. I also think saying those are “subsidizing” your home as being a blatant misrepresentation of what those loans are, but to each their own.

Saying “rent and buy the total market instead” is a silly position. “Why rent when the mortgage is the same price?” He then went on to say things like “what about real estate tax”. The average cost to rent for an equivalent home is typically the same as the cost to own. It’s only recently what housing has become extremely unaffordable to the point people can’t even buy if they wanted.

Forgive me if I don’t think that a rental society versus an ownership society is a positive.

This reeks of WEF.

 

[Rob Battisti]

The thing is, once you've got some equity thanks to that initial low interest loan, you can leverage that plus the increase in market price of it over time to purchase additional properties.

Which is how wealth is made. Not through buying a vanguard total stock fund. No one should ever do that if their intention is to earn actual wealth.

 

[Rob Battisti]

The thing is, once you've got some equity thanks to that initial low interest loan, you can leverage that plus the increase in market price of the home over time to purchase additional properties.

USDA is typically for low to middle income earners so I would imagine the amount of people on FHA and USDA who get a HELOC to then buy another home is extremely small.