International Venezuela / Guyana (possible) conflict

Fucking LOL, first page into Venezuela beefing with Guyana and you people already bickering about Trump and Biden? Don't you ever get bored of repeating that same partisan crap over and over again? Do you even know what the actual topic is about?

The only other country that should be mentioned in this potential slapfest is Brazil, who always have to mobilize troops to safeguard their borders whenever their neighbors acting like little children.





 
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Venezuela referendum result: voters back bid to claim sovereignty over large swath of Guyana​

Disputed territory of Essequibo is larger than Greece, rich in minerals and gives access to part of the Atlantic boasting oil in commercial quantities

Guardian staff and agencies
Mon 4 Dec 2023 05.19 CETLast modified on Mon 4 Dec 2023 11.39 CET

Venezuelans have approved a referendum called by the government of President Nicolás Maduro to claim sovereignty over an oil- and mineral-rich piece of neighbouring Guyana, the country’s electoral authority announced.
Few voters could be seen at voting centres, but the National Electoral Council claimed more than 10.5 million ballots were cast in the country of 20 million eligible voters.

Venezuela has long argued the territory, which comprises two-thirds of Guyana, was stolen when the border was drawn more than a century ago. But Guyana considers the referendum a step toward annexation, and the vote has its residents on edge.

A man walks in front of a mural of the Venezuelan map with the Essequibo territory included, in Caracas, Venezuela, Wednesday, Nov. 29, 2023. Venezuelans will attempt to decide the future of the Essequibo territory, a large swath of land that is administered and controlled by Guyana but claimed by Venezuela, via a referendum that the Venezuelan government put forth in its latest attempt to claim ownership, saying it was stolen when a north-south border was drawn more than a century ago. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)
‘Despotic’ Maduro accused of risking Venezuela-Guyana conflict over oil-rich region

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Venezuelan voters were asked whether they support establishing a state in the disputed territory, known as Essequibo, granting citizenship to current and future residents and rejecting the jurisdiction of the United Nations’ top court in settling the disagreement between the South American countries.

“It has been a total success for our country, for our democracy,” Maduro told supporters gathered in Caracas, the capital, after the results were announced, before highlighting the “very important level of participation of the people” in the referendum.

Throughout Sunday, long lines typical of electoral events did not form outside voting centres in Caracas. Reuters witnesses visited voting centres across the country
– many had few or no people waiting in line. In Maracaibo, in the oil-rich state of Zulia, poll workers told Reuters that turnout was low.


Still, before the 12-hour voting window was scheduled to end, the country’s top electoral authority official, Elvis Amoroso, announced polls would remain open for two additional hours because of what he described as “massive participation”.

Participation of more than 10.5 million voters means that more people voted in the referendum than did for Hugo Chávez, Maduro’s mentor and predecessor, when he was re-elected in 2012.

President Nicolás Maduro speaks to pro-government supporters after a referendum regarding Venezuela’s claim to Essequibo, a region administered and controlled by Guyana

President Nicolás Maduro speaks to pro-government supporters after a referendum regarding Venezuela’s claim to Essequibo, a region administered and controlled by Guyana. Photograph: Matias Delacroix/AP
The international court of justice (ICJ) on Friday ordered Venezuela not to take any action that would alter Guyana’s control over Essequibo, but the judges did not specifically ban officials from carrying out Sunday’s five-question referendum. Guyana had asked the court to order Venezuela to halt parts of the vote.


Although the practical and legal implications of the referendum remain unclear, in comments explaining Friday’s verdict, ICJ president Joan E Donoghue said statements from Venezuela’s government suggested it “is taking steps with a view toward acquiring control over and administering the territory in dispute”.

“Furthermore, Venezuelan military officials announced that Venezuela is taking concrete measures to build an airstrip to serve as a ‘logistical support point for the integral development of the Essequibo,’” she said.

The 61,600-square-mile (159,500 sq km) territory borders Brazil, whose defence ministry said earlier this week it has “intensified its defence actions” and boosted its military presence in the region as a result of the dispute.

Essequibo is larger than Greece and rich in minerals. It also gives access to an area of the Atlantic where energy giant ExxonMobil discovered oil in commercial quantities in 2015, drawing the attention of Maduro’s government.

Venezuela’s government promoted the referendum for weeks, framing participation as an act of patriotism and often conflating it with a show of support for Maduro.


Venezuela has always considered Essequibo as its own because the region was within its boundaries during the Spanish colonial period, and it has long disputed the border decided by international arbitrators in 1899 when Guyana was still a British colony.

That boundary was decided by arbitrators from Britain, Russia and the United States. The US represented Venezuela on the panel in part because the Venezuelan government had broken off diplomatic relations with Britain.

Venezuelan officials contend that Americans and Europeans conspired to cheat their country out of the land and argue that a 1966 agreement to resolve the dispute effectively nullified the original arbitration.

Guyana, the only English-speaking country in South America, maintains the initial accord is legal and binding and asked the International Court of Justice in 2018 to rule it as such, but a decision is years away.

Voters on Sunday had to answer whether they “agree to reject by all means, in accordance with the law”, the 1899 boundary and whether they support the 1966 agreement “as the only valid legal instrument” to reach a solution.

“I came to vote because Essequibo is ours, and I hope that whatever they are going to do, they think about it thoroughly and remember to never put peace at risk,” merchant Juan Carlos Rodríguez, 37, said after voting at a center in Caracas where only a handful of people were in line.

With Associated Press and Reuters
 

Venezuela’s massive military might stirs fears in Guyana​



Image by Prensa FANB
Election authorities in Venezuela have announced that 95% of referendum participants have endorsed territorial claims on a substantial part of the neighboring oil-rich country, Guyana.
Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro termed this as a “convincing victory” for the “yes” vote across Venezuela, according to international agencies.
Elvis Amoroso, the president of the National Electoral Council, stated that nearly 10.5 million out of 20.7 million Venezuelan voters cast their ballots in favor of the referendum.

The referendum outcome has raised concerns in Guyana and the broader region regarding Venezuela’s ultimate intentions.
In a potential armed conflict for territory, Venezuela would hold a significant advantage over Guyana. Brazilian analyst Thiago de Aragão highlighted Venezuela’s much larger military potential compared to Guyana, which has approximately 3,000 military personnel. Venezuela reportedly boasts 123,000 military personnel distributed across multiple regiments, including 173 main battle tanks like the outdated AMX-30 and relatively new T-72B1, alongside reconnaissance vehicles, infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), and armored personnel carriers (APCs), as well as heavy rocket artillery systems.
Venezuela’s active military personnel count of 123,000 exceeds Guyana’s contingent by 36 times, central to the territorial dispute between the two nations. Statistics from the International Institute for Strategic Studies in 2023 delineate that out of these, 63,000 belong to the army, 25,550 to the navy, and 11,550 to the air force, with an additional 23,000 constituting the National Guard.
Image by Prensa FANB
In contrast, Guyana’s 3,400 active military personnel include 3,000 from the army, 200 from the navy, and 200 from the air force. Notably absent are heavy weaponry systems, comprehensive air defense systems, and military aviation.
Image by GDF Guyana
The longstanding dispute between Venezuela and Guyana over the Essequibo region, ongoing for over a century, encompasses an area of 160,000 square kilometers, presently under Guyana’s control. This territory represents 74% of the neighboring country’s land, abundant in oil and mineral resources, with access to the Atlantic Ocean. Guyana spans an area of 214,969 square kilometers with a population of 800,000 inhabitants. Its official languages are English and regional dialects, and its currency is the Guyanese dollar.

Reports surfaced in October 2023 indicating Venezuelan military construction of a runway near the Guyana-Essequibo border, aiming to develop the region. Additionally, there are indications of Venezuela constructing a new road to the Essequibo territory. The dense forests in the region pose as formidable obstacles, complicating any military actions.


Presently, no military movements toward the border or preparatory measures for potential invasion by Venezuela have been observed. Some analysts suggest that these actions are an attempt to redirect attention. Maduro, facing re-election amid a severe economic crisis next year, hopes that the referendum’s outcome will bolster his support among voters and divert attention from domestic issues.
It remains unclear what steps the Venezuelan government will take to enforce the referendum’s outcome, and any attempt to uphold its claim will undoubtedly face international resistance. Nevertheless, the escalating rhetoric prompted troop movements in the region and aggressiveness in both countries, leading Guyanese leaders to liken it to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

If senor mustache actually goes through with it, he'd definitely should be able to succeed from a military standpoint.
That's without anyone intervening though.
 
The US and the UK will completely destroy Venezuela if they are able to advance. It would be like Desert Storm. But it's likely Guyana would be able to hold the..
Also, Russia would be unable to do anything nor they would want to. There are Russian companies operating in Guyana.
Brazil, the largest country bordering the two nations, has been urging Venezuela to step down and would likely allow all kinds of supply to flow to Guyana.
Also, Guyana's military may be small but it's well trained to fight in the region.
Lastly, Venezuela is a collapsing country, they can barely feed their citizens much less a moving army through the jungle.
Of course that's what the world needs right now. Have two of the biggest Western powers fight an ad hoc war in SA and keep them nice and distracted away from ukraine and. Taiwan.
 
A possibility is that Maduro doesn't intend to go to war.
Venezuelans hate the US, and many do believe their problems stem from US intervention.
What Maduro wants is that the US positions some carriers in the region, maybe send some Marines to Guyana.
Then, Maduro will claim the US imperialists are at play again, threatening Bolivarianism. And then, obviously, he will do nothing but will have people rally around him so he can keep ruling for a few more years.
 
All these Oil Wars could be crushed and go away if the U.S. simply decided to go full blast on drill baby drill and dump the price into the dirt. It would crush the economies of Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. I'm good with that.... oh wait... Global Warming!!!!! Nevermind... it would kill us all.
 

Helicopter carrying 5 senior Guyana military officials is missing near tense border with Venezuela​

A military helicopter carrying seven people has vanished near Guyana’s border with Venezuela

By BERT WILKINSON Associated Press

GEORGETOWN, Guyana -- A military helicopter carrying seven people vanished Wednesday near Guyana’s border with Venezuela, with authorities saying there was bad weather in the area and stressing there was no indication it may have been hit by hostile fire as tensions escalate between the countries.

Two crew members aboard the helicopter were taking five senior officers on an inspection of troops guarding a border area that Venezuela claims as its own, according to Army Chief Brig. Gen. Omar Khan.

Venezuelan troops with heavy equipment and machinery have been amassing on the border in recent weeks, leading to speculation of an imminent invasion. Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali told The Associated Press earlier Wednesday that he was taking all necessary steps to defend his country.

Khan told reporters late Wednesday that Guyana’s Defense Force lost contact with the brand new Bell 412 EPI aircraft after it took off from Olive Creek settlement in western Guyana following a refueling stop.

Asked if the aircraft was shot out of the sky as it flew in a mountainous and heavily forested area, Khan said there are no indications that occurred.

“We do not have any information suggesting that there was any flight by Venezuelan aircraft in that area,” he said. “Speculation is not what I want to go into. Our priority is to save the lives of our officers and ranks.”

He said the U.S. government will help with the search when it resumes Thursday.

The aircraft’s disappearance about 30 miles (48 kilometers) east of the Venezuelan border comes as tensions heighten between Guyana and Venezuela over the Essequibo region, which is rich with minerals and located near massive oil deposits. Venezuela claims the region as its own, insisting it has been part of the country since Spanish rule.

Guyana has maintained that the border defined by international arbitrators in 1899 is the correct one.

On Sunday, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro held a referendum in which Venezuelans approved his claim of sovereignty over Essequibo. Then on Tuesday, Maduro said he would immediately grant operating licenses for exploration and exploitation in Essequibo and ordered the creation of local subsidiaries of Venezuelan public companies.

Guyana's president, when asked if he has requested military assistance in the dispute with Venezuela, said his government is reaching out to allies and regional partners, some of which Guyana has defense agreements with, to protect Essequibo. The region makes up two-thirds of the country.

“We take this threat very seriously, and we have initiated a number of precautionary measures to ensure the peace and stability of this region,” Ali said in the brief phone interview.

“Should Venezuela proceed to act in this reckless and adventurous manner, the region will have to respond,” he said. “And that is what we’re building. We’re building a regional response.”

Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but years of mismanagement and economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. against Maduro’s government have hurt PDVSA and subsidiaries.

Maduro announced the creation of a Comprehensive Defense Operational Zone for the territory in dispute. It would be similar to special military commands that operate in certain regions of Venezuela.

“The announcements by Venezuela are in full defiance of international law,” Ali said. “And any country that so openly defies important international bodies should be of concern not only for Guyana but for all of the world.”

Guyana expects to bring up the issue at Wednesday’s U.N. Security Council meeting.

The president said in a statement late Tuesday that his administration has reached out to the U.S., neighboring Brazil, the United Kingdom, France, the U.N. secretary general and the U.S. Southern Command, which oversees military operations in Central and South America and the Caribbean.

Venezuela’s government condemned Ali’s statement, accusing Guyana of acting irresponsibly and allegedly giving the U.S. Southern Command a green light to enter the Essequibo region.

Venezuela called on Guyana to resume dialogue and leave aside its “erratic, threatening and risky conduct.”

The diplomatic fight over the Essequibo region has flared over the years but intensified in 2015 after ExxonMobil announced it had found vast amounts of oil off its coast.

https://abcnews.go.com/Internationa...ary-officials-guyana-missing-border-105444028

- When the USA starts loosening it's sanctions toward Venezuela. Maduro pulls this.
Looks like it's a way to delay the elections?
 
A possibility is that Maduro doesn't intend to go to war.
Venezuelans hate the US, and many do believe their problems stem from US intervention.
What Maduro wants is that the US positions some carriers in the region, maybe send some Marines to Guyana.
Then, Maduro will claim the US imperialists are at play again, threatening Bolivarianism. And then, obviously, he will do nothing but will have people rally around him so he can keep ruling for a few more years.

- Thats what i thought. Guayna could just hire some pmcs to face the Venezuelan army.
Kim athleast is actually a video-game nerd, and so made his soldiers like the Lin Kuei.
Maduro on the other hand doesnt feed his army and is delusional if he thinks they're gonna win a war.
 
- Thats what i thought. Guayna could just hire some pmcs to face the Venezuelan army.
Kim athleast is actually a video-game nerd, and so made his soldiers like the Lin Kuei.
Maduro on the other hand doesnt feed his army and is delusional if he thinks they're gonna win a war.
Venezuela's armed forces are the only workforce in the country that it's actually well paid, for that country's standards. That's how Maduro warrants their loyalty by the way.

They also have some decent Russian gear, that don't come close to NATO-level equipment but it's more than enough for a regional conflict against a insignificant army. If Venezuela moves towards an invasion (I don't believe they will) Guyana is toast unless USA or UK intervenes.
 
Venezuela's armed forces are the only workforce in the country that it's actually well paid, for that country's standards. That's how Maduro warrants their loyalty by the way.

They also have some decent Russian gear, that don't come close to NATO-level equipment but it's more than enough for a regional conflict against a insignificant army. If Venezuela moves towards an invasion (I don't believe they will) Guyana is toast unless USA or UK intervenes.

- I didnt knew that.
 
- I didnt knew that.
Hugo Chavez and Maduro basically bought all the higher ranks of the military.

The lower ranks are kind of a mess, but still better than the average people of Venezuela. They're kept on a leash by monitoring and intelligence services, so rebelling is not an option.

Like most autocratic states, the armed forces are a mess, command is based in loyalty not competence. But it's still enough to crush Guyana if they want to.

This is a few years old but still an informative read:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/2/23/venezuela-the-military-and-its-support-an-explainer
 
(Btw, how do I make embedded links show a snippet and not just the URL?)
 
Has anyone already suggested it’s Putin’s work to divert even more attention from Ukraine ?
 
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