TLDR;
- Jones wants $30-50M + PPV points to fight Tom
- UFC don't have that kind of money (they do) but they want more funding
- Dana is telling Jon (and also Tom) to wait for a bit, they will get the deal done (Netflix or Turki money)
- Jon and Dana are in a stalemate since Jon doesn't want to retire yet, and Dana wants to guarantee funding
- Dana is figuring out how to get the best business deal done, since many UFC stars kind of "fell off" (Pereira, O'Malley, McGregor), so he is using Jon as leverage for UFC branding to business execs
- Tom is waiting patiently, with little leverage, since he will do whatever is asked to fight for Undisputed
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So this is likely the scenario that's going on:
1. Jones, before the Miocic fight, intended to retire after beating Stipe
2. But he came out and dominated Stipe in the 1st round, then roundhouse kicked him spectacularly
3. Audience even included notable figures like Donald Trump, which Jones danced afterwards. Lots of public eyes on Jones now from casuals
4. Jones wrote in a post afterward that he felt better than he thought he would, and changed his mind. He would NOT retire
5. At this point in time, end of year 2024, Jones wanted to fight Pereira for his last dance ---- a Superfight since Alex was the Face of the UFC + Fighter of the Year 2024
6. Jones never intended to fight Aspinall and said in his post-fight vs Stipe, that it would take "fuck you" money to make him fight Aspinall
Basically, he priced himself out of the Aspinall fight, while giving the valid reason "UFC wouldn't pay me enough" if anyone ever accused him of being scared
7. Between post-Miocic and March 2025, Jones was waiting for the outcome of the LHW Title ---- Alex Pereira vs Magomed. Of course, he wanted Alex to win to set-up the Superfight.
Unfortunately, Magomed beat Poatan, and a lot of Pereira's aura was lost. You can't have a Superfight if one of the fighters is not the current Champ.
8. Throughout this whole time, Tom has been in negotiations and meeting with UFC brass to discuss options. Wait for Jones or fight someone else. Tom doesn't care about Jones specifically, he just wants the Undisputed Belt. If Jones fights, that would be a cherry on top
9. Meanwhile, Jones has been in negotiations with Dana and Hunter, from November 2024 to even now. Most of the discussions have already happened.
Before March 2025: Jones told UFC, I want to fight Pereira. If you can't do that, I will retire. If you want me to fight Tom, I want at least $30-$50m (estimated range) + PPV points. Of course, Dana and Hunter declined that proposal since Dana is cheap and they know all of us pirate the PPVs. But they never told Jon to retire and be stripped of the belt, they just hope he changes his mind.
After March 2025: UFC told Jones: You have 2 options. Fight Tom for Undisputed, or retire. Poatan is out of the question. They probably improved their deal with Jon, but still it's not enough.
As an added bonus, they told Jon: If you fight Tom and win, we will guarantee you the Poatan Superfight. Still not enough risk-reward for Jon, so he declines.
But no one is stripped of the belt, no one retires.
Right now, Jon and UFC are in a ceasefire where no one is making a bold move. Jon is not retiring yet, and UFC is not stripping him. They each believe they have more negotiating power, and are biding their time. Until the very last day where no more waiting is possible. Meanwhile, Tom is waiting patiently on the side ---- because he has no choice. He is the one with the least power this triage. He is not famous like Jon; he cannot retire; he will fight anyone UFC gives him; he will take whatever UFC offers him because he will take it. Tom and his father likely DO NOT know about this back-and-forth stalemate that Jon and UFC have, because it is TOP SECRET. But Jon and UFC know damn well what the other wants. Waiting, waiting....
Special circumstances:
There was a falling out with ESPN where Dana was unhappy with their side of the business. PPV not working, deal is falling out.... it's time for a new partnership. Seeing the success of Jake Paul vs Mike Tyson and the numbers it did on Netflix exclusive, it was time to make business with Netflix. Dana has also been interested in doing business with 3rd parties, such as Turki and boxing, and was even interested in a possible UFC-PFL superfight with Ngannou IF everything was perfect and Turki could provide an enormous amount of funding ---- even willing to set aside personal beef with Ngannou. With all these new opportunities taking place, with Netflix, WWE/TKO, and Saudi, it's a no brainer that right now, Dana is negotiating to ultimately leverage the UFC brand to the biggest audience it has ever had. We are in uncharted territory with bringing MMA to mainstream, but with UFC stars falling out of the picture (Alex losing to Magomed, Sean losing to Merab, etc.), they DESPERATELY need Jones for negotiating business deals. Jones, while old, has strong resume value, and even other stars know of him (Tom Brady, LeBron). No one knows the new up and comers. They need Jon to not retire.
So this whole time, Dana is convincing Jon and Tom, "Hey give us time. We will get the deal done. We will give you what you desire." without going in too much into new business deals they have.
Jones is not scared of fighting Tom; he just wants to be paid a shit ton of money so that even if he were knocked out, that money would be worth hurting his legacy, to provide for himself and his family. Generational wealth.
Jones also knows that he is in the entertainment business; he knows he must generate demand to justify his money demands. By waiting longer and longer, we as fans get more pissed off. But we also build hype and suspense by calling him a duck. If it, when it will, get announced later this year.
I believe the fight will happen.
