Obviously outside of him being the title challenger.
Is it Dustin's time?!
I think Poirier have way better chance than a "slight punchers chance". Islam isn't the type of guy to shoot crazy explosive doubles, nor has he chin like Khabib to just march forward. He needs to be smart closing the distance and before that happens he is very vulnerable for them hands from Dustin. Even up close Dustin can tag him near the fence and he is strong so it's not like Islam will just take him down at will, I think. I wouldn't count Dustin out so easily but of course Islam should be the favorite.Poirier is the biggest underdog out of them all though.
Poirier just doesn't have skillset to beat someone like Islam.
For me he is +400 dog
He has a slight puncher's chance, and not a very good one at that.
Also, he would be hands down the worst fighter on that list of the winners who pulled it off and not even remotely close either.
I don't think Dustin will beat Islam. Not good enough, but it is MMA.