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With Umar's upcoming fight against Bautista this weekend and Merab's recent dominant win over Sandhagen, I thought it would be interesting to take another look at round 5 of their fight.
It's pretty much universally agreed that Umar won the first two rounds, Merab won the next two, and most people (including the judges obviously) believe Merab won the 5th round. When I was watching LIVE I remember thinking it was a toss-up round, but the way Merab ended it with landing the best punch of the round, getting two takedowns (even though he did nothing with them - no control, no sub attempts, no GnP), and just show-boating a bunch would be enough to sway the judges that he clearly won. But was it?
I just re-watched the entire round and for every striking exchange I slowed down the playback speed to 0.25x to gauge if the punch/kick actually landed and how cleanly. This is just my interpretation of the damage/cleanliness of the striking exchanges, it's based on the only camera angle we are shown in the fight so not the same as being a judge cage side, but might be more objective overall since each judge has a different vantage point while the camera angle is at least consistent for everyone to gauge. I also use an arbitrary point system as another measure of analysis (1 for a light strike, 3 for a medium, 10 for a hard) just for another framework to gauge.
Here's the stats/summary/analysis:
STRIKES
Umar light glancing jab (1)
Merab light low kick (1)
Merab light low kick (1)
Merab medium straight right (3)
Merab light body punch (1)
Umar medium straight left (3)
Merab light body punch (1)
Umar medium body kick (3)
Merab light jab (1)
Umar light jab (1)
Merab light hook (1)
Umar medium straight left (3)
Merab light hook (1)
Umar light hook (1)
Umar medium body kick (3)
Umar light body kick (1)
Merab light hook (1)
Umar medium straight left (3)
Umar light body kick (1)
Umar light jab (1)
Umar light jab (1)
Umar light leg kick (1)
Umar light high kick (1)
Umar light jab (3)
Merab hard straight right (10)
Merab light GnP (1)
Merab light GnP (1)
Merab light GnP (1)
TOTALS
***Umar***
Light Strikes - 10 x 1 = 10 [6 punches/4 kicks]
Medium Strikes - 5 x 3 = 15 [3 punches/2 kicks]
Heavy Strikes - 0
Total Points = 25
Takedowns/Control - 0/1
***Merab***
Light Strikes - 11 x 1 = 11 (9 punches/2 kicks, with 3 of the punches being from light GnP in the takedown sequence)
Medium Strikes - 1 x 3 = 3
Heavy Strikes - 1 = 10
Total Points = 24
Takedowns/Control - 2/11 (10 seconds of control - no passing, no subs, 3 light strikes of GnP in the first takedown sequence)
PLAY-BY-PLAY
Neither guy does anything for the first 30 seconds, both are clearly very tired but Merab does a better job no-selling it by being bouncy on his feet, yet isn't pressuring, feinting, or attempting to throw anything. Merab finally tries to throw after getting lightly touched and throws a jab from way too far away and then a spinning backfist from so far away he almost falls over. Merab then starts to pressure and dips under a jab to try a takedown, they clinch and Umar breaks off with no damage (Merab throws a knee to the thigh that is so light it shouldn't even be counted as a strike).
Merab lands a couple decent low kicks, Umar tries to jab and Merab ducks under for a takedown that he doesn't get and they seperate again. Merab shoots again to grab a leg and Umar immediately pulls his leg out. Umar tries to jab again and this time Merab throws a counter-right which lands clean, tries to go for a takedown and again doesn't get it. Umar trhows some shots that are close but miss, Merab hits him with a nice body punch. Umar finally lands a clean straight left that lightly snaps Merab's head back (tough to tell from the angle how hard it landed because Merab's back of head is to the camera). Merab tries an overhand that misses into a takedown, which he doesn't get. Umar lands a couple slaps from the clinch that shouldn't count as strikes. Merab lands a glancing body hook as they separate. Umar misses again short with a straight left. Umar lands a solid body kick from the open stance, best strike of the round so far at the mid-point of the round. Merab lands a glancing jab as Umar tries to close distance.
Umar shoots then immediatelely pulls out before he gets sprawled on. Both guys throw strikes but are pretty far off, seems like neither can gauge distance well to set-up their shots and aren't using feints and/or tight footwork to effectively close distance, a lot of lunging from both. Umar lands a light jab that Merab counters with glancing overhand, but Umar lands a clean left to the jaw that has Merab take a step back. Merab misses a kick. Merab fakes a jab then shoots, pulls out of the shot to land a glancing hook that Umar counters with his own glancing hook. Umar misses a lunging straight left. Umar lands a really good body kick, even better then the earlier one, which he chains into a switch body kick to the other side of the ribs (lighter but clean). Merab lunges in and misses a punch, Umar tries to close distance and they momentarily collide like two bulls and back off. Both miss some jabs and circle. Merab throws his hands-up to showboat for a moment. Merab feints into a level-change takedown attempt, doesn't get it, though he momentarily breaks Umar down and is able to get a front headlock for a second, lands a glancing hook before Umar gets away. Both guys miss punches and circle. Merab feints into the level change again and this time gets shucked off cleanly, doesn't even get the leg for a moment, and actually spins around turning his back for a moment as he leans on the cage. Umar hits him with a clean left hand on the jaw that bounces his head off the cage, then lands a partially blocked glancing body kick. They throw same-time jabs and Merab misses, well Umar hits his.
Merab checks the clock and backs off with a minute left as both try to take the center of the cage. Umar lands a nice straight left that is partially blocked by Merab's glove (basically makes Merab punch himself in the face), Umar shoots but gets nothing as Umar pulls his leg out. Both guys swing wildly in the pocket and miss a bunch. Umar lands a light leg kick. Umar tries a high-kick which Merab blocks but lands with enough impact to make him drfit to that side off the block. Umar steps in and lands a clean jab but leaves his head on the center-line and Merab lands a super-clean straight right on the jaw, best punch of the round.
Up until this point based on the strikes and momentum I would say that Umar was winning the round (and the fight) but this punch breathes confidence into Merab. He points at Umar for a second to showboat again. Merab goes for the level change takedown and grabs a leg, Umar falls over and does a backwords summersault. Merab points at him and raises his arms to showboat again. Is this a real takedown? I don't even think so, he never got any control, it was more like Umar fell over form being so tired and Merab was so tired he didn't even attempt to follow him. As Merab backs off he looks at the clock so he must be very tired as well (no attempt to follow-up takedown or pressure into the cage and strike, actually backs off to buy time to reset). Umar misses a kick and Merab showboats again by doing the "look over my shoulder where the kick missed" to both shoulders as he is backing off. Umar presses in and this time Merab times the feint into level change perfectly and actually gets the takedown. Umar uses an overhook to get up, Merab lands like 3 very light shots on him as he does so. Merab gets another bodylock and drags Umar down. Umar frames and Merab legit lets him post off him and looks up and walks away with a few seconds left to run out the clock.
ANALYSIS
This round was insanely close and honestly feels like it could've been a draw, but you have to give Merab the edge I think for how he ended the round with landing the best strike of the round (I think it was somewhere between a medium and a hard strike, not enough to rock someone's whole shit or make them fall over but definitely the best of the round). To me the takedowns were basically meaningless and Merab did almost no transitional work off them, he only landed a touching knee to the thigh once and a glancing hook off a separation, he didn't get any control, but it did show he was superior to Umar in that category and made Umar react and waste energy/time defending. From looking at the scoring flow Merab starts the round good, but then Umar starts taking over and is actually really the only one landing cleanly for the middle of the round. But in the last minute he makes the critical mistake of stepping in to throw and not having a defensive reaction after, eats a clean right to the jaw and Merab is just after him, is able to get two takedowns and do a bunch of show-boating (throws his hands up, makes Umar Summesault and points at him, does the "where did it go" look when Umar misses a kick, gets up and walks away as Umar is scrambling up from the last takedown).
Visually it's not the way to win a round/fight that is razor-close; if you are barely winning you can't eat the best strike of the round then give up multiple takedowns to close it out, even if your opponent does nothing with them. But objectively speaking from a damage perspective this round is incredibly close, Umar has outlanded him 5 to 1 in medium strikes before that straight right in the last minute changes everything. Realistically speaking if Umar could've avoided that exchange he likely could've won't his fight pretty cleanly, he would've been out-striking Merab in both volume and damage and hadn't been taken down yet. But then he ate a big shot and gave up two takedowns and got Merab show-boating on him like 3-4 times for brief moments.
Pretty epic way to end a grueling war, both guys were incredibly exhausted throughout this round, but Merab has better body language of always seeming to bounce even if moving away and resetting, though he does some stuff that shows how tired he is if you watch closely (almost falls over from spinning back-fist, turns the wrong way off a failed takedown turning his back, looks at the clock at least twice in the last minute and backs off/resets when he makes Umar sommersault).
Re-watching made me really want to see this fight again, now that they've fought each other would be fascinating to see how they would adjust. Umar realistically shouldn't be imitating takedowns, his counter-wrestling was plenty good, seems like he gassed himself trying to spam them early and failing. Merab realistically should also probably be feinting more and mixing up overhands off his takedown entries, when he started doing this more consistently he had a lot of success confusing Umar on what the read was.
Sick ending to a sick fight. Kind of sloppy from how tired both are but in a fascinating way because they are both trying to push through the pain and dying endurance to get a clear moment of dominance and it's Merab that is able to pull that out in the end.
EDIT
Forgot to include the fight video for reference!
It's pretty much universally agreed that Umar won the first two rounds, Merab won the next two, and most people (including the judges obviously) believe Merab won the 5th round. When I was watching LIVE I remember thinking it was a toss-up round, but the way Merab ended it with landing the best punch of the round, getting two takedowns (even though he did nothing with them - no control, no sub attempts, no GnP), and just show-boating a bunch would be enough to sway the judges that he clearly won. But was it?
I just re-watched the entire round and for every striking exchange I slowed down the playback speed to 0.25x to gauge if the punch/kick actually landed and how cleanly. This is just my interpretation of the damage/cleanliness of the striking exchanges, it's based on the only camera angle we are shown in the fight so not the same as being a judge cage side, but might be more objective overall since each judge has a different vantage point while the camera angle is at least consistent for everyone to gauge. I also use an arbitrary point system as another measure of analysis (1 for a light strike, 3 for a medium, 10 for a hard) just for another framework to gauge.
Here's the stats/summary/analysis:
STRIKES
Umar light glancing jab (1)
Merab light low kick (1)
Merab light low kick (1)
Merab medium straight right (3)
Merab light body punch (1)
Umar medium straight left (3)
Merab light body punch (1)
Umar medium body kick (3)
Merab light jab (1)
Umar light jab (1)
Merab light hook (1)
Umar medium straight left (3)
Merab light hook (1)
Umar light hook (1)
Umar medium body kick (3)
Umar light body kick (1)
Merab light hook (1)
Umar medium straight left (3)
Umar light body kick (1)
Umar light jab (1)
Umar light jab (1)
Umar light leg kick (1)
Umar light high kick (1)
Umar light jab (3)
Merab hard straight right (10)
Merab light GnP (1)
Merab light GnP (1)
Merab light GnP (1)
TOTALS
***Umar***
Light Strikes - 10 x 1 = 10 [6 punches/4 kicks]
Medium Strikes - 5 x 3 = 15 [3 punches/2 kicks]
Heavy Strikes - 0
Total Points = 25
Takedowns/Control - 0/1
***Merab***
Light Strikes - 11 x 1 = 11 (9 punches/2 kicks, with 3 of the punches being from light GnP in the takedown sequence)
Medium Strikes - 1 x 3 = 3
Heavy Strikes - 1 = 10
Total Points = 24
Takedowns/Control - 2/11 (10 seconds of control - no passing, no subs, 3 light strikes of GnP in the first takedown sequence)
PLAY-BY-PLAY
Neither guy does anything for the first 30 seconds, both are clearly very tired but Merab does a better job no-selling it by being bouncy on his feet, yet isn't pressuring, feinting, or attempting to throw anything. Merab finally tries to throw after getting lightly touched and throws a jab from way too far away and then a spinning backfist from so far away he almost falls over. Merab then starts to pressure and dips under a jab to try a takedown, they clinch and Umar breaks off with no damage (Merab throws a knee to the thigh that is so light it shouldn't even be counted as a strike).
Merab lands a couple decent low kicks, Umar tries to jab and Merab ducks under for a takedown that he doesn't get and they seperate again. Merab shoots again to grab a leg and Umar immediately pulls his leg out. Umar tries to jab again and this time Merab throws a counter-right which lands clean, tries to go for a takedown and again doesn't get it. Umar trhows some shots that are close but miss, Merab hits him with a nice body punch. Umar finally lands a clean straight left that lightly snaps Merab's head back (tough to tell from the angle how hard it landed because Merab's back of head is to the camera). Merab tries an overhand that misses into a takedown, which he doesn't get. Umar lands a couple slaps from the clinch that shouldn't count as strikes. Merab lands a glancing body hook as they separate. Umar misses again short with a straight left. Umar lands a solid body kick from the open stance, best strike of the round so far at the mid-point of the round. Merab lands a glancing jab as Umar tries to close distance.
Umar shoots then immediatelely pulls out before he gets sprawled on. Both guys throw strikes but are pretty far off, seems like neither can gauge distance well to set-up their shots and aren't using feints and/or tight footwork to effectively close distance, a lot of lunging from both. Umar lands a light jab that Merab counters with glancing overhand, but Umar lands a clean left to the jaw that has Merab take a step back. Merab misses a kick. Merab fakes a jab then shoots, pulls out of the shot to land a glancing hook that Umar counters with his own glancing hook. Umar misses a lunging straight left. Umar lands a really good body kick, even better then the earlier one, which he chains into a switch body kick to the other side of the ribs (lighter but clean). Merab lunges in and misses a punch, Umar tries to close distance and they momentarily collide like two bulls and back off. Both miss some jabs and circle. Merab throws his hands-up to showboat for a moment. Merab feints into a level-change takedown attempt, doesn't get it, though he momentarily breaks Umar down and is able to get a front headlock for a second, lands a glancing hook before Umar gets away. Both guys miss punches and circle. Merab feints into the level change again and this time gets shucked off cleanly, doesn't even get the leg for a moment, and actually spins around turning his back for a moment as he leans on the cage. Umar hits him with a clean left hand on the jaw that bounces his head off the cage, then lands a partially blocked glancing body kick. They throw same-time jabs and Merab misses, well Umar hits his.
Merab checks the clock and backs off with a minute left as both try to take the center of the cage. Umar lands a nice straight left that is partially blocked by Merab's glove (basically makes Merab punch himself in the face), Umar shoots but gets nothing as Umar pulls his leg out. Both guys swing wildly in the pocket and miss a bunch. Umar lands a light leg kick. Umar tries a high-kick which Merab blocks but lands with enough impact to make him drfit to that side off the block. Umar steps in and lands a clean jab but leaves his head on the center-line and Merab lands a super-clean straight right on the jaw, best punch of the round.
Up until this point based on the strikes and momentum I would say that Umar was winning the round (and the fight) but this punch breathes confidence into Merab. He points at Umar for a second to showboat again. Merab goes for the level change takedown and grabs a leg, Umar falls over and does a backwords summersault. Merab points at him and raises his arms to showboat again. Is this a real takedown? I don't even think so, he never got any control, it was more like Umar fell over form being so tired and Merab was so tired he didn't even attempt to follow him. As Merab backs off he looks at the clock so he must be very tired as well (no attempt to follow-up takedown or pressure into the cage and strike, actually backs off to buy time to reset). Umar misses a kick and Merab showboats again by doing the "look over my shoulder where the kick missed" to both shoulders as he is backing off. Umar presses in and this time Merab times the feint into level change perfectly and actually gets the takedown. Umar uses an overhook to get up, Merab lands like 3 very light shots on him as he does so. Merab gets another bodylock and drags Umar down. Umar frames and Merab legit lets him post off him and looks up and walks away with a few seconds left to run out the clock.
ANALYSIS
This round was insanely close and honestly feels like it could've been a draw, but you have to give Merab the edge I think for how he ended the round with landing the best strike of the round (I think it was somewhere between a medium and a hard strike, not enough to rock someone's whole shit or make them fall over but definitely the best of the round). To me the takedowns were basically meaningless and Merab did almost no transitional work off them, he only landed a touching knee to the thigh once and a glancing hook off a separation, he didn't get any control, but it did show he was superior to Umar in that category and made Umar react and waste energy/time defending. From looking at the scoring flow Merab starts the round good, but then Umar starts taking over and is actually really the only one landing cleanly for the middle of the round. But in the last minute he makes the critical mistake of stepping in to throw and not having a defensive reaction after, eats a clean right to the jaw and Merab is just after him, is able to get two takedowns and do a bunch of show-boating (throws his hands up, makes Umar Summesault and points at him, does the "where did it go" look when Umar misses a kick, gets up and walks away as Umar is scrambling up from the last takedown).
Visually it's not the way to win a round/fight that is razor-close; if you are barely winning you can't eat the best strike of the round then give up multiple takedowns to close it out, even if your opponent does nothing with them. But objectively speaking from a damage perspective this round is incredibly close, Umar has outlanded him 5 to 1 in medium strikes before that straight right in the last minute changes everything. Realistically speaking if Umar could've avoided that exchange he likely could've won't his fight pretty cleanly, he would've been out-striking Merab in both volume and damage and hadn't been taken down yet. But then he ate a big shot and gave up two takedowns and got Merab show-boating on him like 3-4 times for brief moments.
Pretty epic way to end a grueling war, both guys were incredibly exhausted throughout this round, but Merab has better body language of always seeming to bounce even if moving away and resetting, though he does some stuff that shows how tired he is if you watch closely (almost falls over from spinning back-fist, turns the wrong way off a failed takedown turning his back, looks at the clock at least twice in the last minute and backs off/resets when he makes Umar sommersault).
Re-watching made me really want to see this fight again, now that they've fought each other would be fascinating to see how they would adjust. Umar realistically shouldn't be imitating takedowns, his counter-wrestling was plenty good, seems like he gassed himself trying to spam them early and failing. Merab realistically should also probably be feinting more and mixing up overhands off his takedown entries, when he started doing this more consistently he had a lot of success confusing Umar on what the read was.
Sick ending to a sick fight. Kind of sloppy from how tired both are but in a fascinating way because they are both trying to push through the pain and dying endurance to get a clear moment of dominance and it's Merab that is able to pull that out in the end.
EDIT
Forgot to include the fight video for reference!
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