Umar Nurmagomedov is a -700 favorite over Mario Bautista (+450)

Umar is good, but damn, those odds on Mario scream "pick me" for a fight I saw as a stiff test for a returning Umar.
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What do you guys think? Is this one of the more "value" bets of recent times?
Am I highly overrating Mario's ability to sneak two rounds?
The thing is we can look at Mario beating Aldo near identical performance to Merab and say maybe he's that good. However Merab needed a championship rounds comeback to best Umar so you're asking Mario to be better than Merab.

Which is a big ask so those odds are right.
 
Bryce Mitchell just beat one as well didn’t he lol.
Yea but he's not related to THE Nurmagomedovs, just a coincidental name, he trains out of DagFighter.
Although I don't know how that factors into Kadgoons theory. Does he not get a buff since he's not blood related or is it in the name itself?
<lol>

The thing is we can look at Mario beating Aldo near identical performance to Merab and say maybe he's that good. However Merab needed a championship rounds comeback to best Umar so you're asking Mario to be better than Merab.

Which is a big ask so those odds are right.
That's MMAth 101. Merab knew he would have championship rounds and a better tank, Mario and his team are gameplanning totally different. Too simplistic of a view IMO, but I do see your overarching point.
 
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I hate Bautista especially over the Aldo fight, but I want him to beat Umar because that would be hilarious and Umar and his team were so butthurt over losing to Merab so another L to a big underdog would be the funniest
 
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The odds are that bad because they should be. Even against Merab, Umar was beating him up until he started slowing down and merab's inhuman cardio took over. I've seen nothing from Mario to make me think he had a real chance.
 
The odds are that bad because they should be. Even against Merab, Umar was beating him up until he started slowing down and merab's inhuman cardio took over.
<puhlease>
Round one was close, round two was Umar's best where he bloodied Merab's nose with jabs.

Judges will likely screw Bautista even if he does win. Bro better finish him
I feel like you're right. He's put on quite a run, but the judges are against him here and Umar has had a good amount of time off to recover from getting emoted on. I think Umar takes it, but I'll be putting a small bet on Mario just in case he pulls it off out of respect.
 
He should be, I don't see anywhere that Bautista beats him. Umar will win in all areas.
 
Umar is good, but damn, those odds on Mario scream "pick me" for a fight I saw as a stiff test for a returning Umar.
View attachment 1117418

What do you guys think? Is this one of the more "value" bets of recent times?
Am I highly overrating Mario's ability to sneak two rounds?
I favor Umar, but these odds are ridiculous. Bautista has very clean striking and excellent takedown defense. This is anything but a gimme fight for Umar. I feel he'll have to dig deep to win and I think he does it by decision.
 
Umar is good, but damn, those odds on Mario scream "pick me" for a fight I saw as a stiff test for a returning Umar.
View attachment 1117418

What do you guys think? Is this one of the more "value" bets of recent times?
Am I highly overrating Mario's ability to sneak two rounds?

I think regardless of the match up, judging is so obscene at this point that any odds difference of this magnitude is worth a value bet
 
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