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I think Umar takes him.
Merab's smothering style won't work against Umar because Umar will embrace the grind in the grappling, be actively looking for submissions and trying to kick his head off when standing. Umar has been training against this style his entire life.
I don't think Merab's grappling and submission game is on par with Umar's. Umar can win the fight standing or on the ground, or take a decision. He's flexible like that and won't have to try to stuff 50 takedowns because he needs to keep the fight standing at all times like Yan.I think it goes both ways, Umars striking needs space and Merab will not give it to him. Just because Umar will embrace the grappling grind doesn't mean he will get the better end of it nor does it mean his cardio will fair better than Merabs either. A hard nosed strong wrestler with endless cardio who pushes forward and looks to slug and make the fight dirty is as hard for Umar as Umars footwork, technical striking, defensive grappling and kicking game from range is for Merab. I say book it.
I don't think Merab's grappling and submission game on par with Umar's. Umar can win the fight standing or on the ground. He's flexible like that and won't have to try to stuff 50 takedowns because he needs the fight standing at all times like Yan.
I actually think Merab will get the better end of the takedowns but neither guy will get much control from them. None of us have seen anything to make us think Umar is the better takedown artist, Merab is way more proven vs much better fighters. It think it's a matter of pacing, most Umar fights are done at his pace, his range, he dictates...Merab won't give him that. Umar has looked uncomfortable in boxing range and that's where Merab will be striking from as he pressures forward. It's a very interesting fight.
Nice misleading title
Umar is so polite I had to translate for him in Just Bleed about what he really meant.“I like this” = “calls for his head”

I think it's a great fight. Umar isn't exactly a contender yet, if Merab beats him it's by no means a derailment, he's 26 and can easily string together 2-3 wins to get back to where he was. If he beats Merab, it's an immediate hyped title contender. I hope they make this fight, would answer a lot of questions.