Overeem's new physique, in and out 1 strike strategy should work well against Arlovski. I think Overeem also has momentum on his side, and a better striking pedigree being a former K-1 champ. Both guys have horrible chins and lots of power, so anything can happen. It could be a case of whoever landsthe first big shot of the fight...as that could change the confidence of both guys since they both don't have much heart.
But I'm on Diet Overeem and big. I think he'll be able to avoid the right hands of Pitbull. It could be a decision I guess, because Overeem has gone to the judges a bit in his career. I could see it going possibly 5 rounds....these guys are teammates, I don't know if that will effect the outcome.
Overeem points handicap -5½ -195 (Risk 100 / Win 51.28)
Alistair Overeem -235 (Risk 166.67 / Win 70.92)
Overeem wins inside distance -168 (Risk 79.76 / Win 47.48)