UFN 133 Dos Santos vs Ivanov July 14

[ill800]

Dos Santos ko +170
Wineland ko +540
Reneau sub +745
Ottow sub +575
Jury sub +750
Mendes ko +360
Price sub +500
Brown sub +675
Glenn ko +750
Elkins sub +1365
Scoggins sub +1240

 

[piglord]

Ottow decision +255 seems very likely

sage loves to tap that mat when things get gritty.

 

[Dooze]

Was going to bet Jury if he was a big enough underdog given Mendes layoff and potential PED usage and not knowing how he'd look coming back.

Near pick en though I'll take Mendes. I like Jury but he's just a decent all rounder. Mendes could look awful but he should still be able to hang on the feet and if not, just take Jury down and control him to a decision.

Jury isn't some beast on the mat, he's a good grappler but Mendes too game is/was better than Jury's bottom game and I don't see Jury submitting him, if anything I think Mendes might choke out Jury if he does come out to wrassle.

7 inch reach advantage and the long lay off due to potential roids are the concerns for me. He got cracked by some big shots when he last fought but I think those would have put most 145ers out.

Was going to pass or do Jury as a big dog but if money keeps coming in in Jury I'll be obliged to bet Mendes, especially if it gets to near pick em or heaven forbid, Mendes as a dog.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Myles is my only real bet this card. Going to be hard for Mendes to get inside that reach with 3 years of aging and less PEDs in his body. Meanwhile Jury is entering his prime at 29 and looked very sharp in his last fight

 

[mkess101]

They get old depending on their styles.

33 is mid-prime for bigger weight classes because they are less speed dependent. And maybe some smaller guys who thrive on skill can stay relevant for a while. But speed is the first thing to go in the 30's, so a fighter like Mendes who is HEAVILY dependent on speed with short arms is going to be a clear candidate for a big regression even without USADA.

All the FW's ranked #2-#6 are between 31 and 36 years old LOL. Edgar, Stephens, Aldo, Emmet, Swanson. None look considerably slower than they did 3-5 years ago aside from maybe Aldo (who had arguably the fastest leg kicks in MMA back then).

Obviously there are stylistic differences among all those guys (and Mendes) but the reality is you are just making sweeping generalizations that don't hold up to scrutiny. Add to it that from a mileage standpoint, Mendes is essentially 30 and not 33 since he hasn't fought in 3 years, and the likelihood that his speed hasn't fallen off a cliff increases even more.

 

[Sadistics]

Fights to GTD:
O7.5 -114 .23u
O8.5 +234 .13u
O9.5 +593 .13u
O10.5 +1843 .1u
O11.5 +8500 .066u

Fights to end in KO
U3.5 -116 .2u
U2.5 +251 .13u

 

[lifeisgood12345]

All the FW's ranked #2-#6 are between 31 and 36 years old LOL. Edgar, Stephens, Aldo, Emmet, Swanson. None look considerably slower than they did 3-5 years ago aside from maybe Aldo (who had arguably the fastest leg kicks in MMA back then).

Obviously there are stylistic differences among all those guys (and Mendes) but the reality is you are just making sweeping generalizations that don't hold up to scrutiny. Add to it that from a mileage standpoint, Mendes is essentially 30 and not 33 since he hasn't fought in 3 years, and the likelihood that his speed hasn't fallen off a cliff increases even more.

Edgar and Swanson both look washed to me. Aldo was the GOAT and appears to be past prime at age 31.

Stephens and Emmett are more power/reach and less speed so they project to age better than a fast t-rex like Mendes.

Not to mention that none of these guys were popped for USADA

I'm not saying that Mendes is DEFINITELY washed. But he is definitely going to be lesser than the version of himself that fought Conor, and possibly by a considerable amount. Which is why I just don't think Mendes is the correct favorite

 

[MT6ix]

JDS doesn't need beach muscles or 'roids to outbox Ivanov. It's not like Blagoy is a physical specimen with low body fat himself, he has natural strength. Blagoy might catch him with an overhand right or something in a clinch if he can get it, but JDS is much better of a boxer at range unless he has fallen way off.

I don't have a bet on the fight yet but I'm hesitant to bet on JDS.

You can see from the weighins post usada he doesn't look the same which doesn't equate to everything but it could mean lost speed, power and explosiveness.

Also, after the beatings/knockouts he has suffered, it's hard to debate he is the same fighter anymore. He is so gun-shy now and hesitant which is a bad trait in the HW division, doesn't throw like he use to.

JDS years ago would have used Ivanov as a punching bag but current JDS, I wouldn't be surprised if he got caught. Those knockouts he suffered are catching up to him. Look what happened with Overeem and Blaydes, (different matchup style) reaction/reflexes aren't the same anymore.

I understand a bet on JDS at openers but hard to be confident about it.

 

[mkess101]

Edgar and Swanson both look washed to me. Aldo was the GOAT and appears to be past prime at age 31.

Stephens and Emmett are more power/reach and less speed so they project to age better than a fast t-rex like Mendes.

Not to mention that none of these guys were popped for USADA

I'm not saying that Mendes is DEFINITELY washed. But he is definitely going to be lesser than the version of himself that fought Conor, and possibly by a considerable amount. Which is why I just don't think Mendes is the correct favorite

Mendes had like a 2 week camp for that fight didn't he?

I'm also not saying it's impossible by any stretch that Chad has lost it. I think you and I just disagree a lot on the likelihood. We both realize it's possible he looks great and it's possible he looks terrible (and probably it will be somewhere in between).

I wonder too if Jury had enough pop to keep Mendes off him even if Chad has slowed some. Have we seen Myles really hurt anyone decent standing...ever?

Out of curiosity what odds did you get Jury at. He was a great bet at +240 or whatever for sure. I just think now Mendes is the play with lines tightening so much.

 

[iGnP]

@iGnP where are you leaning on this card?

Only real bet will prob be on JDS and Barcelos. Will go smaller on Scoggins, Mendes, Reneau, and maybe Ottow

 

[ill800]

Jds last knock out was a little over 5 years ago

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Mendes had like a 2 week camp for that fight didn't he?

I'm also not saying it's impossible by any stretch that Chad has lost it. I think you and I just disagree a lot on the likelihood. We both realize it's possible he looks great and it's possible he looks terrible (and probably it will be somewhere in between).

I wonder too if Jury had enough pop to keep Mendes off him even if Chad has slowed some. Have we seen Myles really hurt anyone decent standing...ever?

Out of curiosity what odds did you get Jury at. He was a great bet at +240 or whatever for sure. I just think now Mendes is the play with lines tightening so much.

I bet him at +180 and +135. I think he should be a slight fave.

I've had the same thought that he hasn't really finished anybody good. IMO you gotta give him a chance, Mendes never had the best chin and it's not getting better with age. Although I am worried that Myles power will be depleted at 145.

 

[Kowboy Karl]

TJ doesn't pass the eye test for me. He is starting to look a bit like WEC Faber, and Faber didn't pass the eye test back then either (nor did he in the UFC) IMO.

For what it’s worth my good friend wrestled with Urijah at uc Davis and I’ve got to hang out with him from
Time to time over the past 15 years...... he’s all class and the culture between all the peeps I’ve met from the uc Davis crew including my buddy are big haters of ped users. I seriously doubt urijah ever used.

Now mendes who got popped. Guilty

Tj with his Manlet boobs.... one of the worst failures of the eye test I can remember.

 

[P4p Islam]

View attachment 406489


For what it’s worth my good friend wrestled with Urijah at uc Davis and I’ve got to hang out with him from
Time to time over the past 15 years...... he’s all class and the culture between all the peeps I’ve met from the uc Davis crew including my buddy are big haters of ped users. I seriously doubt urijah ever used.

Now mendes who got popped. Guilty

Tj with his Manlet boobs.... one of the worst failures of the eye test I can remember.

This is the exact picture I was thinking of when I said TJ doesn't pass the eye test.

 

[mkess101]

I bet him at +180 and +135. I think he should be a slight fave.

I've had the same thought that he hasn't really finished anybody good. IMO you gotta give him a chance, Mendes never had the best chin and it's not getting better with age. Although I am worried that Myles power will be depleted at 145.

IDK, I think Mendes chin was fine. Look at that 2nd Aldo fight. That was a war and Mendes ate BOMBS in that one and survived (and had moments of his own).

I just don't know if Jury has much power at any weight honestly. Maybe he does and we've just yet to see it, IDK. I will be interested to see Jury's gameplan here. Normally he wants to force grappling exchanges, but the last time we saw him try vs a really good grappler he got owned by Cowboy. Mendes is a different type of grappler obviously, so IF Myles can put Chad on his back then it's a huge advantage for Jury. But that seems awfully unlikely. So if Jury has to abandon his grappling game (likely), what does a striking match look like? Myles is sound technically for the most part, but has never shown much power or speed or explosion standing. Chad is shorter but even if he's slowed he's probably going to be faster and hit harder.

 

[zeckdo]

Bermudez has come up short on a few decisions lately, also struggles with longer strikers like Fili, and Korean Zombie, Glenn's past 5 have gone to the judges, Dennis has 4 out of his last 5 go to the cards.

Rick Glenn decision +335

 

[ill800]

I’m a bit behind on tape. Working tomorrow.

I’m really considering playing ivanov at +160

Will try to get some of his wsof fights in tomorrow before the event

I don’t trust jds chin at all.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I’m a bit behind on tape. Working tomorrow.

I’m really considering playing ivanov at +160

Will try to get some of his wsof fights in tomorrow before the event

I don’t trust jds chin at all.

Watch his fight vs Copeland if you wanna be talked out of it. He had plenty of good moments, but eats more shots than he should and doesnt show the best 5 round gas tank.

He’s really quick and flurries punches with a bit of pop. Has a chance of putting JDS down. But if JDS only slightly declined he has no chance of winning a decision and not the best KO power

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Also before we start prematurely writing off Cigano. Let’s consider the points

—His suspension overturned early makes it less likely that he has a big decline
—34 is mid prime for HWs
—He has wins vs the 3 best HWs of all time: Stipe, Cain, and Werdum
— He has never even lost a round to anybody but Cain, Stipe, and Reem

Ivanov doesn’t look any better than Hunt or Rothwell and look what JDS did to those guys. You are really banking on a considerable decline for him to lose and the price isnt that juiced

 

[edole]

I have no real interest in playing the main event tomorrow-- too much variance in hw fights, and there are a lot of questions surrounding this one.