UFN 126 - Cowboy vs Medeiros - Austin

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I was heavy on Cowboy against Cote, now it's pretty hard to bet it.Cowboy is regressing while Yancy is progressing.Has Cowboy any motivation now, 2 knockouts in one year, actually 3(Masvidal knocked him out 2 times).Red flags.I hope Cowboy will come back on a victory path, but...
There might not be a tko/ko loss next to his name against Brazilian Cowboy and Trinaldo, but you could easily make the argument Yancy took similar damage as Cerrone in his tko/ko losses, if not more so. Those were beatings where Yancy took huge shots all throughout both fights. But obviously coming off 3 official wins your mindset is better than coming off 3 losses....
 
Isn’t the fact that Cowboy doesn’t watch take something his coaches compensate by watching twice as much? I remember reading that they do all the background work and Cerrone just drills the answers to what they find on tape. So Cowboy doesn’t need to watch tape, and he never has.

I think they said Jon Jones watches as much as his coaches, while Cowboy just wants his people to tell him what will happen.
 
I get why people want to fade Cowboy, but I'm not getting this whole narrative about Yancy making all these improvements. What are we basing this on? Looking at his last 5 fights:

1) Makdessi- most scored the fight for Makdessi and if not for the knockdown at the end of the third, Makdessi certainly would have won
2) Trinaldo- Yancy had his moments, but was largely dominated (nearly stopped) by a Trinaldo who gassed pretty badly in the fight
3) Spencer- borderline not a UFC-level fighter
4) Silva- after seeing his fight against Mein, it's clear that Silva is completely shot, as is his chin. Fight was very competitive until the questionable stoppage
5) Oliveira- the best win of Yancy's career. But BC relies on athleticism more than technique and an absolute war where again, Yancy was nearly stopped in the first round

Without getting into too much MMA math, look at the common opponents there. Cerrone destroyed both Makdessi and Brazilian Cowboy, while Yancy struggled with both. Also, as Sham mentioned earlier in the thread, Yancy is only a few months removed from taking life changing type of damage. Not to mention the guys Cerrone has lost to on his losing streak would run through Yancy as well.

I think Cerrone is going to stop Yancy and look good doing it. If not, maybe he really is done. Personally, I'm very happy with the +100 I got on him here though.
Yeah. I'm gonna put a small hedge with the KO1 for Yancy, but I don't see how Yancy takes this unless Cowboy's 100% done.
 
I get why people want to fade Cowboy, but I'm not getting this whole narrative about Yancy making all these improvements. What are we basing this on? Looking at his last 5 fights:

1) Makdessi- most scored the fight for Makdessi and if not for the knockdown at the end of the third, Makdessi certainly would have won
2) Trinaldo- Yancy had his moments, but was largely dominated (nearly stopped) by a Trinaldo who gassed pretty badly in the fight
3) Spencer- borderline not a UFC-level fighter
4) Silva- after seeing his fight against Mein, it's clear that Silva is completely shot, as is his chin. Fight was very competitive until the questionable stoppage
5) Oliveira- the best win of Yancy's career. But BC relies on athleticism more than technique and an absolute war where again, Yancy was nearly stopped in the first round

Without getting into too much MMA math, look at the common opponents there. Cerrone destroyed both Makdessi and Brazilian Cowboy, while Yancy struggled with both. Also, as Sham mentioned earlier in the thread, Yancy is only a few months removed from taking life changing type of damage. Not to mention the guys Cerrone has lost to on his losing streak would run through Yancy as well.

I think Cerrone is going to stop Yancy and look good doing it. If not, maybe he really is done. Personally, I'm very happy with the +100 I got on him here though.

Couldn't sum it up any better, I was more than happy to get 2u down on Cowboy at -120. Will also look to play Cowboy by sub as he is levels above there. Could see him hitting a reactive double on an aggressive Yancy and quickly subbing him or a club and sub. If Yancy does starch Cerrone , than I will be on board the Cerrone is done train, but until he starts losing to non-elite opponents, I can't jump on yet.
 
Throw in that Yancy took quite a beating, in a winning effort, but a beating just the same, not too long ago. The body can only take so much damage before it gives out. I don’t think his body can take another war so soon and that is how I see him having to do to win.
 
Isn’t the fact that Cowboy doesn’t watch take something his coaches compensate by watching twice as much? I remember reading that they do all the background work and Cerrone just drills the answers to what they find on tape. So Cowboy doesn’t need to watch tape, and he never has.

I think they said Jon Jones watches as much as his coaches, while Cowboy just wants his people to tell him what will happen.

This is pretty much how I've been doing my capping so far in 2018. Not too much tape watching, I just want my people to tell me what will happen! Confidence increase Cowboy.
 
Throw in that Yancy took quite a beating, in a winning effort, but a beating just the same, not too long ago. The body can only take so much damage before it gives out. I don’t think his body can take another war so soon and that is how I see him having to do to win.

Yancy takes a lot of punishment in most fights. The amount of flush power shots he took in the Trinaldo fight was obscene.
 
Fransisco Trindaldo getting some serious disrespect at +190...am I underestimating Vick or what?
 
+190??? Vick has beaten noone in the division, why is this respect for him? At first glance i am picking Trinaldo at this price for sure, he is 39, but he has won against some good fighters - Miller, Felder, Medeiros and Pearson. Only loss in 9 bouts is from Kevin Lee. At the same time Vick`s best win is Jospeh Duffy :D
 
+190??? Vick has beaten noone in the division, why is this respect for him? At first glance i am picking Trinaldo at this price for sure, he is 39, but he has won against some good fighters - Miller, Felder, Medeiros and Pearson. Only loss in 9 bouts is from Kevin Lee. At the same time Vick`s best win is Jospeh Duffy :D
Books seem to underrate Trinaldo. He was like -160 against Miller recently, though I guess it stops them being completely blind-sided by the fight where Trinaldo just gets too old. I think Vick wins this one, but +190's a good price for Trinaldo here. Honestly don't get why they're booking Vick into Trinaldo, I'd rather see Vick against a Pettis or another fringe top 15 dude.
 
+190??? Vick has beaten noone in the division, why is this respect for him? At first glance i am picking Trinaldo at this price for sure, he is 39, but he has won against some good fighters - Miller, Felder, Medeiros and Pearson. Only loss in 9 bouts is from Kevin Lee. At the same time Vick`s best win is Jospeh Duffy :D
Duffy is no joke
 
Books seem to underrate Trinaldo. He was like -160 against Miller recently, though I guess it stops them being completely blind-sided by the fight where Trinaldo just gets too old. I think Vick wins this one, but +190's a good price for Trinaldo here. Honestly don't get why they're booking Vick into Trinaldo, I'd rather see Vick against a Pettis or another fringe top 15 dude.

Pettis is #13 and Trin is #14. With Vick at #12 and both he and Trin coming off wins, I think it makes sense. Pettis is 1-4 in his last 5 fights at LW.
 
Cashed out my 3u on Yancy before bet365 changed the odds, looks like a lot of money will come in on Cerrone, maybe can get +170-200 before fight night
 
Betsafe odds (probably similar to 5d)
 

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