UFN 118 - Cerrone vs Till - Poland

[SBJJ]

1) He's only -185

2) Nobody has presented any compelling argument that Piechota cannot be decent or that Wilson may not be garbage.

Piechota has stiff boxing and continually gives up position on the ground. Even pulling damn guard

I don't think this is a -185 or -200 mismatch. This to me is a close fight

You just keep saying Wilson sucks

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Doesn’t matter much the level has downgraded after completion of tape watch. Still a solid bet depending on odds (fairly sure I’ll get a price worth 1u at least) but def not omega leve 8

I went through the same arc watching him. But I think Smith is a really good matchup for him for a few reasons

1) Smith is geared toward bullying weaker opponents on the ground. Emeev's takedown D and strength looks good enough to prevent this from happening
2) Smith has been KO'd in 1 min or less 4 times, and he hasn't faced any power punchers. Emeev likely the most powerful striker he has faced-- this one can end really fast.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I went through the same arc watching him. But I think Smith is a really good matchup for him for a few reasons

1) Smith is geared toward bullying weaker opponents on the ground. Emeev's takedown D and strength looks good enough to prevent this from happening
2) Smith has been KO'd in 1 min or less 4 times, and he hasn't faced any power punchers. Emeev likely the most powerful striker he has faced-- this one can end really fast.

Smith?

 

[Sadistics]

Emeev's takedown D and strength looks good enough to prevent this from happening.

His TDD hasn't looked as good as I would've liked, and we haven't seen much of his getups. As bad as Smith is on the feet he's a very strong wrestler. Emeev is undersized at 5'10 with a slim frame while Trevor is a big MW. I do favour Emeev quite a bit but can't play him as a big fav which I'm expecting

 

[Joseph Budden]

Wow everyone please watch Wieczorek vs Papa. Amazing fight, and the finish is super high level. Feel bad for Hamilton

 

[Jamah]

Wow everyone please watch Wieczorek vs Papa. Amazing fight, and the finish is super high level. Feel bad for Hamilton

LOL , it looks fixed as fuck

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Wow everyone please watch Wieczorek vs Papa. Amazing fight, and the finish is super high level. Feel bad for Hamilton

My only worry with Wieczorek is that Cisse gave him issues before he turned him around and pounded him out, and Hamilton is just 1 year removed from KO'ing Grabowski in 14 seconds. Gotta fade that heavyweight variance.

But other than that Hamilton has always been super easy to finish, and it has gotten worse with age as Fortuna and Spitz are definitely weaker finishers than Wieczorek.

This fight is probably not making it past round 1, and Wieczorek is going to be victorious fairly often. Would be happy to bet him -200 or better. If he's -250 or so it's gonna be a tough decision.

 

[Agent Mulder]

Wow everyone please watch Wieczorek vs Papa. Amazing fight, and the finish is super high level. Feel bad for Hamilton

What a joke that was LOL!

 

[Sadistics]

I know everyone wants to fade Hamilton but Wieczorek is pretty bad himself, like Spitz with less power.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I know everyone wants to fade Hamilton but Wieczorek is pretty bad himself, like Spitz with less power.

He definitely has more power than Spitz. Spitz couldn't even win a round vs lol Godbeer let alone finish. Hamilton is by far his best finish on the record and it took him all of 24 seconds.

Idk wtf Papa was doing, but both him and Cisse are arguably tougher finishes than Hamilton and Wieczorek handled both in round 1.

Being un-bad is hardly a pre-requisite to beating Hamilton, just need basic finishing power and a pulse and Wieczorek has both

 

[Monster Meat]

Wow Cerrone down to -140 makes no sense to me. Till has a nice record but huge step up this line shouldn’t be this low.

 

[Sadistics]

He definitely has more power than Spitz. Spitz couldn't even win a round vs lol Godbeer let alone finish. Hamilton is by far his best finish on the record and it took him all of 24 seconds.

Idk wtf Papa was doing, but both him and Cisse are arguably tougher finishes than Hamilton and Wieczorek handled both in round 1.

Being un-bad is hardly a pre-requisite to beating Hamilton, just need basic finishing power and a pulse and Wieczorek has both

I'm guessing you haven't watched his fights if you think he's a powerful HW.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I don't think he's a powerful HW, but his power is OK enough and Hamilton's chin is a LOL joke.

Seriously...name one person with arguably more power that Hamilton hasn't lost to in round 1. Rama and Potts are the only candidates, and they have at best marginal power and that was 4+ years ago before Hamilton was getting finished by Spitz in 24 seconds.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

That said I agree that Wieczorek is pretty bad. Safest bet may be the under just in case Hamilton finishes him before he takes a punch.

 

[SBJJ]

Wasn't Hamilton a lock up in here a few fights ago?

 

[Rapidryan88]

Liking the cerrone odds, as someone posted earlier, unless cerone comes in injured I don’t really see him losing this.

 

[SBJJ]

Till seems very tough. Also seems to be legit on the ground. I like the over

 

[t6p]

I'm in for 5u on Cerrone now with the price drop. Till, to me, looks like he has a lot of potential but until I see him prove he can do it against the highest level guys I'm not fully convinced.

Before Cowboy ran into a peaking Masvidal, he was smashing experienced welterweights with ease. I also thought he looked like his usual self against Lawler.

If this fight was booked prior to the Mas fight, Cerrone would be a huge fav IMO. Maybe Till is the real deal, maybe Cerrone is starting to decline, but at this price I think it's worth the risk, especially in a 5 round fight.

 

[SBJJ]

Save some live bet powder for Cerrone also. Till could drop him in the first

 

[2bet]

fwiw, I think it has yet to be mentioned that Wilson will drop to Middleweight for his fight with Piechota.