UFN 117 - OSP vs Shogun II - Japan

[burge13]

Hirota off the card

 

[piglord]

Hirota off the card

great now i have an ultra stupid £350 play on jumeau straight.

 

[null]

WUT, bookiebeatdown is back on? Where?

Audio only now, and also available elsewhere where podcasts are available.

 

[Sadistics]

That's a valid point. I still think +250 is bananas value on this fight. Do you think CG has that much of an advantage anywhere in order to justify winning this fight ~73% of the time?

I'd say the odds are pretty accurate, huge grappling edge and I wouldn't be surprised if Claudia outstruck her with the threat of the TD. If you plan to bet Andrade I'd wait til tomorrow, Luca likely plays Gadelha

 

[LEMONZEST]

great now i have an ultra stupid £350 play on jumeau straight.

Yeah fucks my parlay too.

 

[mmaHobbyist]

Hirota off the card

I only count 9 fight in https://www.ufc.tv/video/ufc-japan-2017-prelims. There is no early prelim. Daichi Abe vs Hyun Gyu Lim is not there either, possible 2 fight off the card.



Hopefullly they took out the wrong Japanese fighter out, Hirota is still on the list.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Hirota off the card

Goddammit

 

[EzFlyer]

i guess i'm glad about hirota being pulled from the card. was nervous being on a dude who was ill from/during weight cut.

10 fight card two weeks ago, it is...

 

[EzFlyer]

Hit these event props

Fights to go distance:
U4.5 +143 .3u
U3.5 +413 .2u
U2.5 +1325 .1u
U1.5 +5900 .05u

Fights to end in SUB:
O1.5 -150 .7u
O2.5 +234 .2u
O3.5 +712 .1u
O4.5 +2550 .05u
O5.5 +10700 .25u

Like the subs especially, could see one in Kondo/Jeon, Gadelha/Andrade, Gomi/Kim, Saki/Henrique, Nakamura/Morono, and Formiga/Sasaki

annnnnd voided

damned late fight cancellations

 

[EzFlyer]

great now i have an ultra stupid £350 play on jumeau straight.

i like your bet better now, actually ... hehe.

 

[Sadistics]

annnnnd voided

damned late fight cancellations

Hoping they readjust them and put em back up, would be at better prices and I was expecting this one to go to decision anyway

 

[conmemay]

After watching film I'm actually switching my pick to JA over CG because I believe that people are underestimating the strength and striking of JA while overestimating Claudias lethal BJJ game. Taking down Jessica is like tackling a fucking fire hydrant, and keeping her on her back has never been easy. Moreover, she was physically strong as I won 135 pound fighter and I has dropped 20 pounds to compete in the 115 pound division so she's used to tussling with physically powerful women.

No doubt, Claudia is a wrestling beast but getting Karolina to the mat and getting the submission is much different than putting Jessica on the floor and doing the same. Karolina is basically a stick figure and was physically overwhelmed. Karolina always starts slow and takes her a long time to get into the fight. Kind of a like how the Diaz brothers fight. But I can envision Claudia working hard for the takedown and not getting it and slowing down in the latter frames of the fight. Meanwhile, for as thick as Jessica is, she how's damn good cardio. It showed when she went 3 hard rounds against Angela Holl and was still firing on all cylinders for the final round. That's noteworthy because Angela has some of the best cardio in the game in WMMA.

However,, I can't fault anyone for taking a stab at a Claudia submission given the fact that Jessica was choked out by Rocky with a fucking bulldog choke. Carlos Newton vs. Pat Miletich anyone? Age showing.

However, I think this tilt a lot closer than it appears on paper and I can also see Claudia potentially looking past Jessica and over the hill at a trilogy fight with Joanna. This is the definition of a trap fight. I'm getting vibes of Ian McCall versus John Lineker. I'm going to take a stab at the dog here.

JA is strong and durable but who knows if that's enough to stop a td from a good wrestler like CG. JA hasnt really faced any good wrestlers who look to take her down since Liz Carmouche. Liz took JA down with ease and toyed with her on the ground. JA still likes to rush in swarming punches; open for a AG takedown. It is unknown if JA can stop a CG td, imho. JA will fight for your money though.

 

[Orion]

CG seems more technically sound in pretty much every facet of the game and has refined her style a bit under new coaching to pick her shots more carefully. Also looks to have dropped some muscle mass. I think CG takes a decision with superior boxing and the occasional shot mixed in.

CG is simply the best 3 round fighter at 115. I wish this was 5 to see more of this matchup.

 

[Orion]

I'm getting a feeling he has Gadelha and the Japanese chick.

I don't like +1440 for Andrade SUB. That's implied probability of almost 7%, right?. I follow Gadelha on Snapchat and she's always training her BJJ in the gi. No doubt she's got great grappling defense; I clock odds of her getting tapped at under 5%.

I'd say even less than that as someone who won worlds and is facing a purple belt in Andrade. CG would have to get absolutely rocked to get caught. Straight grappling , JA doesn't sub her in a million years.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

I would disagree

Andrade isn’t a fighter that people can look past. She’s the number 3 ranked female in her division and Claudia called her out for the fight. She’s also a dangerous striker

Claudia took Johanna champ down, multiple times. Something no one else has been able to do.

Karolina is not a frail little girl. She’s very strong and has a very good clinch game. She just lacks the technique to defend takedowns from high level wrestlers like Claudia.

Yeah I agree with everything you said about Karolina, the thing is, it takes her a bit to get going, and Claudia is strong as a bull from the start. She's been able to take down everyone she's faced in the first round including JoAnna twice multiple times. Don't get me wrong, I do think CG will win, I'm just playing the odds.

 

[Sham5916910]

After watching film I'm actually switching my pick to JA over CG because I believe that people are underestimating the strength and striking of JA while overestimating Claudias lethal BJJ game. Taking down Jessica is like tackling a fucking fire hydrant, and keeping her on her back has never been easy. Moreover, she was physically strong as I won 135 pound fighter and I has dropped 20 pounds to compete in the 115 pound division so she's used to tussling with physically powerful women.

No doubt, Claudia is a wrestling beast but getting Karolina to the mat and getting the submission is much different than putting Jessica on the floor and doing the same. Karolina is basically a stick figure and was physically overwhelmed. Karolina always starts slow and takes her a long time to get into the fight. Kind of a like how the Diaz brothers fight. But I can envision Claudia working hard for the takedown and not getting it and slowing down in the latter frames of the fight. Meanwhile, for as thick as Jessica is, she how's damn good cardio. It showed when she went 3 hard rounds against Angela Holl and was still firing on all cylinders for the final round. That's noteworthy because Angela has some of the best cardio in the game in WMMA.

However,, I can't fault anyone for taking a stab at a Claudia submission given the fact that Jessica was choked out by Rocky with a fucking bulldog choke. Carlos Newton vs. Pat Miletich anyone? Age showing.

However, I think this tilt a lot closer than it appears on paper and I can also see Claudia potentially looking past Jessica and over the hill at a trilogy fight with Joanna. This is the definition of a trap fight. I'm getting vibes of Ian McCall versus John Lineker. I'm going to take a stab at the dog here.

We dont really know how hard ja is to td. We cant just assume cos shes a fire hydrant shes hard to td. I can only go off what ive seen and at sw noone besides string bean penne has tried to take her down. At 135 carmouche and raquel hit easy td's. I know they are 135ers but cg is a far better wrestler than both. For 2 rounds cg was pretty much taking jj down at will and her tdd is amazing. Ja is strong but im very confident she lacks the technique to continually stop cg td's. No one has ever managed to. Has keeping her down never been easy? Carmouche and raquel absolutely tooled her from top position and they are not the grapplers gadelha is. She also ran into a reneau triangle twice inside 10 seconds. I do not trust ja's ground game at all. She was also saved by the bell against sarah moraes if cg gets her back good night and sweet dreams.

No way im not trusting cg here. Shes only ever lost to jj once in a controversial dec and the rematch she was two rounds up. Cg has basically shoen herself to be almost impossible to beat over three rounds. I also dont expect ja to be overly aggressive the td threat will change the dynamic here massively.

Ps raquel beat aes with a bulldog choke not ja she rnc andrade.

 

[turbozed]

Ulka Rd 3 is +2525 at 5d. Good value there if Juicy wears himself out trying to finish Sasaki. His gas not always the best and he'll be flying to the other side of the world for this one.

 

[jjwvic]

I'd say the odds are pretty accurate, huge grappling edge and I wouldn't be surprised if Claudia outstruck her with the threat of the TD. If you plan to bet Andrade I'd wait til tomorrow, Luca likely plays Gadelha

Claudia should be -350 or higher I figured that'd be her line opening. It'll end up close to that I bet, Claudia wins 95 percent of the time

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Womp-Womp

Hirota out. My boy @EzFlyer busts out his copy of the Torah scroll and thx God.

Oy Vey Hirota. All this mishegas with this weight nonsense. Schmuks and shmendriks his camp is run by my great-grandma might say lol.

 

[iGnP]

I'd say the odds are pretty accurate, huge grappling edge and I wouldn't be surprised if Claudia outstruck her with the threat of the TD. If you plan to bet Andrade I'd wait til tomorrow, Luca likely plays Gadelha

Thanks for the heads up!