UFN 108 - Swanson vs Lobov - Nashville

[EzFlyer]

Still no props wtf...

i'm pretty certain we'll get the general props today. probably as soon as i get in my car for my commute home because they're dicks like that.

 

[ill800]

i'm not so sure. artem is not easy to finish.

I dont know why everyone seems to think cub is going do roll through Artem with a devistating knock out.

Who is cub flatlining?

Just putting this here,

%62.5 of Women Strawweight fights go the distance, the highest of any weight class.

Follwed by %54.3 for Women Bantamweight

%29.5 of Women Strawweight fights end in SUB, the highest in all Weight classes.

%8.3 end in TKO/KO in the Women's Straweight, by far the worse in any weight class.

Note to self, stay away from Women MMA. If my ass is dumb enough to play it, which I am temped to in the Taylor fight, I am going with Fight goes the distance.

I'm not touching TKO/KO or ITD for Women MMA unless it's Cyborg, and instead will go by SUB if I feel that is possible.

Those stats are deceiving

The over used to always be the play but we are seeing a lot more finishes as these women get better

 

[BigNick100]

I dont know why everyone seems to think cub is going do roll through Artem with a devistating knock out.

Who is cub flatlining?


Those stats are deceiving

The over used to always be the play but we are seeing a lot more finishes as these women get better

Now I will have to check how many finishes there has been in 2017 to back up your argument.

I agree with the over but I should have been more specific in that I want to bet Taylor by DEC, not just that fight goes the distance.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Expert Play #2 Jake Ellenberger +160
Very surprising to see Ellenberger at +160 against Mike Perry, I'm used to seeing Ellenberger as the underdog by now but you have to consider the opponents he's been facing, Masvidal, Brown, Saffedine, Wonderboy, Gastelum, Lawler, Mcdonald. Hard to find a guy at WW that's fought a tougher list of opponents in recent years.

Mike Perry is easy work compared to all those guys, Mike Perry is inexperienced, he's one dimensional, and he's a good style match up for Ellenberger. In the past Ellenberger has typically struggled against technical strikers that fight well at range, Mcdonald, Wonderboy, Saffedine etc. Perry is not a technical striker, he doesn't wanna strike from the outside. Like Ellenberger, Perry prefers to strike at boxing range, Perry will throw combinations and is willing to exchange punches.

I don't think Ellenberger is has done as others think he is. You have to consider that list of named guys he's been fighting, Perry is a massive step down. Ellenberger is most likely fighting for his spot in the company, he'll probably get cut if he loses this one.

I think Perry is going to give Ellenberger the fight he wants, Perry may also get his TDD tested, he hasn't fought a wrestler of Ellenberger's calibre before, Ellenberger hasn't relied on his wrestling in recent years but this could be a good opportunity. Perry did give up two TD's to Jouban.

In the past I think Ellenberger's biggest problem has been his output, this again is related to the kind of strikers he's been facing, it's difficult to let your hands go against a evasive striker like Saffedine compared to an aggressive striker like Perry who likes to come forward.

I'm giving Ellenberger a chance here, he absolutely deserves it. I think he's being underestimated, he's only been losing to the best, not against guys like Mike Perry. Ellenberger has multiple paths to victory, he's got the experience, he's beaten better competition, he's more well rounded, he trains at a better camp (KingsMMA).

Brown, Shields, Martquardt, Sanchez, Pyle, all beaten by Ellenberger

Ellenberger is winning this fight.

#Edgy #DontBeSurprised #GettingThisW #NoDoubt #Believe #TeamJuggernaut #Elite #UnderdogKing

 

[NorthernLights]

I'm talking about potential money I win from the card. Yeah I did make a silly bet on Rumble and bet what I won on for the year. Thanks for opening up that cut. For what it's worth I don't think I'm any elite bettor. I'm a degenerate gambler who loves mma.

I really don't take it all that seriously

Just to be clear I didn't intend to rub it in or make fun of you in any way.

 

[BigNick100]

I dont know why everyone seems to think cub is going do roll through Artem with a devistating knock out.

Who is cub flatlining?


Those stats are deceiving

The over used to always be the play but we are seeing a lot more finishes as these women get better

Just did more reviews for Women fights in the UFC for 2017

So far this year that has been 14 women fights in the UFC -
6 out of the 14 ended in SUB - %42.8
8 out of the 14 ended in DEC - %57.1
No fights ended in TKO/KO this year.

So both our arguments are valid. There is more finishes this year so far, but 14 fights is only a small sample size.

I posted earlier %62.5 women strawweights go to the distance, and it's at %57.1 this year, so not far off.

Then i posted %29.5 ends in SUB, and so far it's %42.8 this year, so a lot higher but the sample size is 14 so if one of those fights ended in deiscion instead of SUB then we would be looking at %%35.7, which is close to the %29.5. So i believe those stats I posted are pretty spot on.

Now, those stats also back up my arguments that Women strawweights get the most subs, and the worst in TKO/KO as there has been none this year.

So I will looking at Women's MMA as this, if I feel someone has the chance at a SUB I will use that prop. If not I will pick whoever I think will win by desicson.

So far I am on Taylor DEC, because she is def not getting a sub win.

Penne has 7 subs on her record, so it's possible she gets a sub.

If you on Penne sub is your best bet, if your on Taylor DEC is your best bet I beleive.

I can't beleive I just broken down some Women MMA, smh.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Ellenberger letting Perry know he will take the head clean off.


Ellenberger motivated

 

[cagebrain]

i'm pretty certain we'll get the general props today. probably as soon as i get in my car for my commute home because they're dicks like that.

EZ they have a tracker on your car. As soon as it starts moving they drop the odds

 

[cagebrain]

I dont know why everyone seems to think cub is going do roll through Artem with a devistating knock out.

Who is cub flatlining?


Those stats are deceiving

The over used to always be the play but we are seeing a lot more finishes as these women get better

didn't ishihara drop artem?

 

[Cornrow Kenny]

Expert Play #2 Jake Ellenberger +160
Very surprising to see Ellenberger at +160 against Mike Perry, I'm used to seeing Ellenberger as the underdog by now but you have to consider the opponents he's been facing, Masvidal, Brown, Saffedine, Wonderboy, Gastelum, Lawler, Mcdonald. Hard to find a guy at WW that's fought a tougher list of opponents in recent years.

Mike Perry is easy work compared to all those guys, Mike Perry is inexperienced, he's one dimensional, and he's a good style match up for Ellenberger. In the past Ellenberger has typically struggled against technical strikers that fight well at range, Mcdonald, Wonderboy, Saffedine etc. Perry is not a technical striker, he doesn't wanna strike from the outside. Like Ellenberger, Perry prefers to strike at boxing range, Perry will throw combinations and is willing to exchange punches.

I don't think Ellenberger is has done as others think he is. You have to consider that list of named guys he's been fighting, Perry is a massive step down. Ellenberger is most likely fighting for his spot in the company, he'll probably get cut if he loses this one.

I think Perry is going to give Ellenberger the fight he wants, Perry may also get his TDD tested, he hasn't fought a wrestler of Ellenberger's calibre before, Ellenberger hasn't relied on his wrestling in recent years but this could be a good opportunity.

In the past I think Ellenberger's biggest problem has been his output, this again is related to the kind of strikers he's been facing, it's difficult to let your hands go against a evasive striker like Saffedine compared to an aggressive striker like Perry who likes to come forward.

I'm giving Ellenberger a chance here, he absolutely deserves it. I think he's being underestimated, he's only been losing to the best, not against guys like Mike Perry. Ellenberger has multiple paths to victory, he's got the experience, he's beaten better competition, he's more well rounded, he trains at a better camp (KingsMMA).

Brown, Shields, Martquardt, Sanchez, Pyle, all beaten by Ellenberger

Ellenberger is winning this fight.

#Edgy #DontBeSurprised #GettingThisW #NoDoubt #Believe #TeamJuggernaut #Elite #UnderdogKing

Another pick that isn't as elite as Al Iaquinta ITD. Ellenberger has been losing to better competition but it doesn't mean he won't lose to worse competition. It's about how he's looked in recent fights and he's clearly a worse fighter post USADA. He gasses in 2 minutes and looks for the door in every fight.

 

[BigNick100]

Lol at guys trying to compare elite picks, this " I'm elite" no "I'm more elite" thing has take on a world of it's own. It's like the same 10 guys trying to play butt touch with each other every event.

 

[LEMONZEST]

ellenberger x perry under 1.5 (+115)

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Another pick that isn't as elite as Al Iaquinta ITD. Ellenberger has been losing to better competition but it doesn't mean he won't lose to worse competition. It's about how he's looked in recent fights and he's clearly a worse fighter post USADA. He gasses in 2 minutes and looks for the door in every fight.

I doubt Iaquinta finishes, IDK how you can trust a guy to show up and perform when he's been out for years and temporarily retired. Diego is super tough, he's been in 36 pro fights, he's only lost ITD twice and one of the losses was due to a cut.

Good chance Iaquinta looks rusty and tentative. His knee also got destroyed and he's admitted in interviews that it will never be the same again. Hard to know what to expect from Iaquinta but I'm not expecting him to look great here, gotta look at the circumstances.

 

[raketmannen]

Lol at guys trying to compare elite picks, this " I'm elite" no "I'm more elite" thing has take on a world of it's own. It's like the same 10 guys trying to play butt touch with each other every event.

Same 10? More like 3 or 4 + some alt accounts

 

[Shancock9]

There is something very un-elite about referring to yourself as elite

 

[t6p]

I don't think Ellenberger is has done as others think he is. You have to consider that list of named guys he's been fighting, Perry is a massive step down. Ellenberger is most likely fighting for his spot in the company, he'll probably get cut if he loses this one.

I agree with most of your breakdown. I just want to add that Jake was on the Luke Thomas show yesterday and he said that he just signed a new 4 fight contract with the UFC. And, take it for what it's worth, he also said he thinks highly of Perry but loves the stylistic matchup for himself. He sounded very confident.

 

[Joseph Budden]

noobie was off to a good start by jocking my avy showing hes a clear #JBfan and getting yellows within days, but smh @ taking shots at the bets of MMA GOATing Expert #payyourdues #notelite #showrespect

 

[Cornrow Kenny]

I doubt Iaquinta finishes, IDK how you can trust a guy to show up and perform when he's been out for years and temporarily retired. Diego is super tough, he's been in 36 pro fights, he's only lost ITD twice and one of the losses was due to a cut.

Good chance Iaquinta looks rusty and tentative. His knee also got destroyed and he's admitted in interviews that it will never be the same again. Hard to know what to expect from Iaquinta but I'm not expecting him to look great here, gotta look at the circumstances.

Jacare had only been stopped by strikes once since like 2004 too. It doesn't matter if Diego has only lost ITD twice, stats mean very little in MMA. Diego's clearly not as durable as he used to be, his chin has gone so stats from years ago mean nothing. The last time he fought someone with hands he got stopped in the first minute and since then he got dropped by a gassed grappler. Now he's fighting a guy with superior boxing and heavier hands than Lauzon. The layoff or knee injury isn't going to take away the power in Al's punches or make Diego any less hittable. Gotta think outside the box.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Jacare had only been stopped by strikes once since like 2004 too. It doesn't matter if Diego has lost ITD once, stats mean very little in MMA. Diego's not as durable as he used to be, his chin has gone so stats from years ago mean nothing. The last time he fought someone with hands he got stopped in the first minute and since then he got dropped by a gassed grappler. The layoff or knee injury isn't going to take away the power in Al's punches and Diego is still the most hittable fighter in the division. Gotta think outside the box.

Well GL but I can't give you my expert approval. I think Diego will give a much tougher than you think and I think the decision trend continues.

 

[ill800]

didn't ishihara drop artem?

Dropping someone and finishing someone are two different stories

Artem is hard to finish according to his stats. He's had a lot of fights

The guys he's fought are low level of course, but I would still say he's a durable fighter.

Cub is not exactly a knockout artist either

So I wouldn't say it's a lock that the fight Doesn't go the distance

Now rumble vs dc I knew wasn't going the distance. Lock. I bet like 550 to win 100

not this fight though

Btw I bet the fight would not go the distance for-245 in a few parlays