UFN 105 - Lewis vs Browne - Halifax

[raketmannen]

Luca picked Marshman vs Santos u1.5 rounds, and the over 1.5 line moved from 2.10 to 3.00

Is that for real? I had no idea so many casuals actually followed him...

 

[NinjaCat456]

wtf??

i liked marshman-sanos O1.5 +120 or whatever yesterday.. it's +200 on bol right now. hitting it

Not really seeing why people like this line so much.

11 of Santos' 18 career fights have ended in the first round, and that's including 7 of his 9 UFC fights. Now he's fighting a wild brawling squadie with low fight IQ and a penchant for getting hit in the head. Both posses KO power; neither of them particularly like wrestling. This could be a quick one.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

I have a few bd's to post. Most are chalk but I'll try and post not so juiced as this.


Taleb / Ponzinibbio

Spoiler

Following his duel series defeats on two seasons of TUF, the Bellator veteran Taleb made his way into the Octagon where he has since gone a respectable 4-1 with his best performance to date coming in his last outing where he KO'd the flaky Erick Silva.

A Tri-Star representative, the 35-year-old Canadian has a background in the Bruce Lee invented martial art Jeet-Kun-Do as well as holding a Brown Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and is A relatively large welterweight fighter who uses his size and strength well. Frankly, Taleb is a versatile fighter competent in all aspects of the game.

Opposing the Canadian fighter is the hard hitting Ponzinibbio whose found his groove with three straight wins. His entire game revolves around controlled chaos. That is to say, despite his constant aggression, Ponzinibbio has incredibly technical boxing. The ATT rep is a very versatile kickboxer that throws blistering straight rights down the pipe and violent left hooks behind them. What's more, he never chases his opponent but instead works the angles as a rhyme and reason for every strike he throws. For a mixed martial arts he is among the most fundamental. boxers we have in the sport today.

The Argentines slick striking is buttressed by his superior grappling game. A Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Black belt, Ponzinibbio is comfortable letting his hands fly because he trusts his BJJ should he be taken down.

Physically Taleb is an imposing figure at 170 pounds and 6'1" tall with a 74 inch reach he will enjoy and advantage of 1 inch in both categories over the Argentinian.

Aside from Eric Silva, the Tri-Star product has no top victories to his name while losing to the likes of middling talent including Marius Zaromskis and the completely sub-standard Mike King and Tyler Manawaroa in respective "TUF" series.

His best work is done with that patented Tri-Star jab. Indeed, NT uses the jab as his vehicle to set everything else up. Off of the jab you will see him utilize a nice counter right hook - right leg kick combo to the outside thigh. His striking is not actually powerful per se, but it is strong enough to get the respect of his opponent and open up other holes such as the takedown which Taleb likes to hit in the middle of the octagon off of a combination.

What makes vulnerable is his frequent and ability to take his head off the center line and be there for the counter strike while simultaneously pumping out a very low percentage of strikes throughout the rounds. The aforementioned apathy was illustrated perfectly in his fight against Li Jingliang when Taleb was barely able to eek out a split decision due to his apathy. For minutes at a time Taleb laid back and allowed Li to get off first and bust him up. This is a death sentence against a top notch striker like Santiago.

If he's getting tuned up on the feet I expect Taleb to look for the TD quick, but if think Ponz defends them. Taleb does not have great wrestling as even the smaller Li Jingliang was able to shrug his TDAs off while also hitting multiple TDs of his own. Unlike Li, Santiago is not a small WW by any means and is not going to be at a significant strength discrepancy.

With all of the information available, I see Ponz being able to do what he does best and that is carve his way through the average pugilistic talent of Taleb. Quite simply, the Canadian just isn't proficient enough on the defensive end to deal with the type of firepower that Ponz is going to bring his way. Essentially, if the Canuck is unable to corral Ponzinibbio and drag him to the canvas he is going to get lit up. That said, I don't see him having much success with this takedowns given that Ponz has showed tremendous TDD and was able to shirk off the TDAs from much better wrestlers in Zak Cummins and Court McGee respectively.

Ponzinibbio is the more skilled fighter of the two and he's five years younger than NT and in his prime. Santiago's TDD + his clean effective striking will find the mark and get him another highlight reel finish.

I like Ponz x KO prop here.

[\spoiler]

 

[DevilsPt2]

Honestly, that's sort of a hard argument to make. Can you really say Browne comes out on top in these?

Browne's offensive wrestling vs. BB defensive wrestling and vice versa?
Who has better ability to finish if it hits the ground?
Is Browne's standup really better? They both have pretty poor standup.
Power advantage?
Cardio?

Also, why assume Browne's chances get better in the later rounds? Lewis has won in the UFC in the 2nd round, 3rd round, and 4th round. His only losses came before the 6 minute mark in the fight. Browne's only got one finish outside of the 1st round.

I haven't played Lewis because he's a really frustrating guy to bet on, but I definitely won't bet Browne here. I honestly think he's very unskilled in MMA and gets by on killer instinct + finishing ability. Lewis isn't much different there in getting by on absolute power, but he's also shown the ability to not quit and get back up when taken down. I'd be very surprised to see Browne finish on the ground, so it's basically banking on Browne to get a win with his shitty standup.

When I said Browne is better everywhere, I was referring to his technique, not physical attributes. Think Lewis wins early or not at all because Lewis' bad simple striking and takedowns only get worse and more predictable. if he doesn't swang and bang on the ground or get a standing KO early, he has no path. Think he needs to swarm Browne early and mix strikes and takedowns, I don't think he will do any of that.

Lewis' last opponent used range and movement to stifle him, Browne does it better and can finish you.

I'll post a more in depth breakdown later.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I also love Euro cards for early Saturday UFC

Right?? I'm planning a Big Bear cabin trip March 18th during that London vs the world card, which by the way looks really promising! It's got UK's best prospects and it kinda looks to me like good betting opportunities.

Can't wait to wake up to some breakfast and an Irish coffee.

 

[EzFlyer]

Not really seeing why people like this line so much.

11 of Santos' 18 career fights have ended in the first round, and that's including 7 of his 9 UFC fights. Now he's fighting a wild brawling squadie with low fight IQ and a penchant for getting hit in the head. Both posses KO power; neither of them particularly like wrestling. This could be a quick one.

it's +200, i think it was a 50/50 proposition, so there's immense value here

santos is often gunshy/lethargic. goes back to his tuf brazil fights, too. sometimes he just doesn't pull the trigger.

and i genuinely believe the marshman we have in the ufc now is a far cry from the one who was getting ko'd even just 3 or so years ago. i think he can take damage quite well.

again, +200.

 

[TheFactor141]

I would love to get a piece of that Santos Marsh O1.5 but when I was mulling it over last night before it jumped BetDSI pulled it and hasn't reposted odds on the O/U yet. Hopefully it has a similar jump to what you have all been reporting. I agree with EZFlyer on this: it's a 50/50 they go past 7.5 minutes, +200 is a great value bet.

 

[Agent Mulder]

Lombard V Hendricks just screams draw. Might've gone a bit overboard here but put .4u on it for 28 units

Good point! I'm gonna play the draw as well.

 

[HeDucking]

it's +200, i think it was a 50/50 proposition, so there's immense value here

santos is often gunshy/lethargic. goes back to his tuf brazil fights, too. sometimes he just doesn't pull the trigger.

and i genuinely believe the marshman we have in the ufc now is a far cry from the one who was getting ko'd even just 3 or so years ago. i think he can take damage quite well.

again, +200.

Agreed, there is a reason the over opened at -150. There is fantastic value in the +200. I hit it for 2u. It can very well finish in the first but I like the over. Not to be a prick about quoting myself from before but here's why I think it goes over.

"Anytime Marshaman losses, its usually over 1.5 rounds. This tells us his pretty durable when he's fully energised and he kinda is. Most of his finishes are also over 1.5. Santos on the other hand, if he cant finish you in round one, he will usually go to decision or finish very late, over 1.5.

Now can either finish in under round 1? Yes, they can but its more likely imo it goes over 1.5. At +2xx, its excellent value"

Now I think Marshmann is durable enough to survive one and a half rounds, same goes for Santos.

 

[Agent Mulder]

When I said Browne is better everywhere, I was referring to his technique, not physical attributes. Think Lewis wins early or not at all because Lewis' bad simple striking and takedowns only get worse and more predictable. if he doesn't swang and bang on the ground or get a standing KO early, he has no path. Think he needs to swarm Browne early and mix strikes and takedowns, I don't think he will do any of that.

Lewis' last opponent used range and movement to stifle him, Browne does it better and can finish you.

I'll post a more in depth breakdown later.

When was the last time Browne used range and movement in an effective way? Serious question cause I think his movement sucks. I really think Shamil is way better than Browne when it comes to sticking and moving. Btw look at how shitty Brownes range control was versus Cain, yeah I know that Cain is a beast but still.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Be honest, don't you have a little man crush on Lombard? I feel like you back him more often than not

 

[Rebel_LioN]

1. 2/19/2017 9:30 PM UFC Fighting 1601 Jack Marshman* +155 vs Thiago Santos
2. 2/19/2017 8:00 PM UFC Fighting 1901 Ryan Janes* +275 vs Gerald Meerschaert
3. 2/19/2017 11:59 PM MMA Props Fighting 1107 Hendricks wins by 3 round decision* +255 vs Not Hendricks by 3 round decision
4. 2/19/2017 11:30 PM MMA Props Fighting 1211 Ferreira wins by 3 round decision* +211 vs Not Ferreira by 3 round decision

Risking $100.00 To Win $10,457.48

Here's my 4 man +1045 punt parlay. I say punt because it's very loose with my reasoning. I don't really believe in my picks for this Halifax card but I like the value of these 4 legs. I probably won't be home to watch it and I'm expecting to lose so I'm gonna keep my plays to a minimum this weekend.

Marshman is coming in with some steam and a whole nation behind him and Santos is coming in flat off 2 losses. I remember in his fight against Moose, he tried to get up all willy nilly like a dumbass and got put out cold. Like, what the fuck did he think was going to happen if he tried to just pop up like that? Does he even drill get-ups? He makes really dumb mistakes. I'll take the dog in a seemingly 50/50 fight.

As for Ryan Janes, I liked how in his debut he came straight out the gate with full on pressure. I really don't see why the lines are the way it is. You may favor Meer but he's not deserving of that price tag. Y'all say Jane gets tagged too often, but so does Poirier right? Janes comes to fight and sometimes that plays as a factor.

The other two are self explanatory.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Lombard does not enjoy grappling because he prefers to save his energy to strike and he will likely have to engage in a grinding fight with Johnny whether he likes it or not. Now, it remains to be seen if Johnny can even score the TD as they are both good at what they do. But if Johnny can make it a johnny fight and make it uncomfortable for Lomby I can see him picking up that illusive decision he's been longing for against a fighter who has fought with low output in past performances.

Cezar gets someone that isn't a KO threat. I was trying to figure out where Theo's training camp was and stumbled upon an interview that he has a bunch of projects like filming a movie or some shit that he's working on this year. It's somewhere on YouTube I forgot the name of it.

Again, if you can make a decent case and get good +odds for these above mentioned picks, I don't see why not take the gamble.

Take this with a huge grain of salt however, I'm just speaking on behalf of my value picks and is not truly how I see the fight unfolding. If the odds were any different I can sit here and write up a reason why the opposite side will win, if that makes sense.

 

[EzFlyer]

1. 2/19/2017 9:30 PM UFC Fighting 1601 Jack Marshman* +155 vs Thiago Santos
2. 2/19/2017 8:00 PM UFC Fighting 1901 Ryan Janes* +275 vs Gerald Meerschaert
3. 2/19/2017 11:59 PM MMA Props Fighting 1107 Hendricks wins by 3 round decision* +255 vs Not Hendricks by 3 round decision
4. 2/19/2017 11:30 PM MMA Props Fighting 1211 Ferreira wins by 3 round decision* +211 vs Not Ferreira by 3 round decision

Risking $100.00 To Win $10,457.48

Here's my 4 man +1045 punt parlay.

think you mean +10457 or w/e you missed a digit!

i'm not sure on the janes one, but i actually quite like it overall

 

[Rebel_LioN]

think you mean +10457 or w/e you missed a digit!

i'm not sure on the janes one, but i actually quite like it overall

I mean shit it's worth a $10 flier at least, howbowdah? That's $1,000 regardless if you're on the other side of the picks.

No one can ever be too sure of themselves, it's not like we're in training camp with these guys or if we're the ones in there fighting.

To put in perspective, Glover was a 2nd degree black belt with one of the best single leg TDs and suffocating top game and he was -150/-220. That's someone I'd lay the juice on.

Meer hasn't proved himself yet to be a -330 favorite against anyone. Both he and Janes are 1-0 in the UFC. Janes isn't lacking in confidence he's coming into this thinking he's going to win even if he's a bit rough in technique, he's got the blue collar workman like approach and to me, that means he works for your money as an underdog just like a guy like Belal who never gets discouraged.

 

[t6p]

Full props going up now...

 

[Agent Mulder]

Agree with everyone about the O1.5 in Santos/Marshman, +200 is pretty crazy. Marshman has bad defense in the pocket but that's not where Santos does his damage.

 

[TimCoreCombat]

Ronda markos +245 looks a bit off with this likely going to the cards and being in canada

I absolutely hate Markos in this fight. Those are strong words but I mean it on this one. I think Carla should be the largest favorite on the card imo. Markos is extremely soft, slow and can't cut it in a big camp. She isn't a good striker and I think the only way she wins this is with a miracle sub which is highly unlikely given that Carla is probably the best wrestler in division. I know this is extreme but I would give her a 10% chance of winning.

 

[t6p]

Hit Meer SUB +250 and Esparza NSC -121

 

[TimCoreCombat]

Think I might have found the first dog on the card I might go for and I'm not happy about it. Sam Scilia might be from one of my least favourite gyms in sport; Sikjitsu where you aren't allowed to block leg kicks, but his Gavin Tucker's last few opponents have had pretty poor records and he's caught them in the middle of losing streaks (7-6, 7-9 at the time of fighting). Gavin certainly has some promise but the tape is hard to find and he's an ex-musician, not a wrestler. I think that's all Scilia needs, he can grind this one out like he did against Meza. I know he's on a skid but against Korean superboy (whom he landed against too) and Benitez where he was still competitive. No area of his game is bad, he's just been outclassed, I think it's a big stretch to think that Tucker has what it takes to do that yet and he should not be a favourite in this spot.

I'm going to wait for Bookie Beatdown because they've usually got good info on Canadian regional fighters to make sure I'm not missing anything but I do think there could be value there at current lines.

I myself not irregular for a gym to not allow blocking kicks. Anyone who does a lot of Muay Thai or kickboxing will tell you that the best way to deaden those nerves to take leg shots is to take kicks in training. I can tell you I was damn near crippled the first month I ever trained and then again when I went to Thailand but it really works.

Also, blocking leg kicks can hurt you and the kicker. Assuming your using leg pads, there isn't a real reason to have to check them unless you are really close to fight time. Plus, blocking kicks is pretty damn easy and makes it less likely you get blasted with a combo to the head.

Saying all of that, I have no idea who wins this fight. I just wanted to make sure your logic isn't swayed.