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UFN 104 pbp/discussion

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Feb 4, 2017.

  1. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Honestly, I was pretty shocked with some of the losses. Next event doesn't look that great either. I think I'm going to skip the main card which I rarely do.
     
  2. waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    Yeah not saying the decision itself was horrible. Just the 30-27 card.
     
  3. rille31 Brown Belt

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    Did anyone else experience errors with 5dimes lb?
    My browser somethimes throws errors when confirming lb bets on 5d (chrome)
     
  4. YoungScholar Brown Belt

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    Alright, no worries :)

    In regards to which strategy you should use it's obviously all up to you. Sticking to a rigid bankroll management strategy can be good if you have issues with discipline and tilting. At the same time if you can't take 1-3% bet sizing seriously and have no issue with your ROR (Risk Of Ruin) going up - it's fine to go for a more aggressive BRM strategy. In terms of bankroll size, it's also important to remember that you don't have to have your entire bankroll as cash on your betting accounts at all times, total BR should just be what you are prepared lose if you run into a bad streak (betting account balance + deposits). Personally, I only have about a third of mine on bookies at the moment.

    A very important thing to keep in mind when evaluating success is variance. Shorter term, results are not always indicative of whether you have found a good approach or you should change it. This concept becomes a bit more vague and harder to grasp in betting compared to something like poker where you can easily see if you got your money in well or not. Trying to evaluate your bets after the fact as honestly and objectively as possible I feel can give you a decent idea, instead of writing every loss off to factors unrelated to something that could be capped.

    At the end of the day you should do whatever you feel makes sense in your situation. Someone looking to get some extra excitement and possibly cash every other Saturday should obviously not follow the same strategy as somone who relies on betting as an income. You also can't out-BRM yourself of bad bets but only delay the inevitable loss of your BR if your bets are no good. So BRM should either be used as a tool to help winning players survive bad streaks or to help losing players stretch their money (maybe enough to improve and start winning).

    I would urge you to use the "unit" term a bit more conventionally or else it becomes rather useless for anything other than bragging ;) It is something that should be adjusted, let's say you followed the 1% pr. unit standard, sitting at $3.2k and 640 units it would be long overdue to adjust it so that 1 unit for example becomes $30 going forward giving you a total bankroll of ~107u. Your results could still be inflated in both directions compared to a conventional BRM follower but it would be much more in line with others and thus comparable both in results and in seeing how much value you perceive certain bets to have. Gross exaggeration, but if someone writes "I've bet 300 units on Paige VanZant by decision" we really have no idea what that means and even using the unit term instead of $ becomes redundant.

    Nice to hear of your success this year. No matter how you put it 5-doubling your money in 3 events (assuming it's just the UFC) certainly is awesome!
     
  5. oliverinsix Yellow Belt

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    This is all really excellent advice and I really want to extend my appreciation for the time you took to write it all up. I'll definitely take everything you mentioned into consideration and begin to apply it to carve out a long term winning strategy. But I agree, BRM will only help compliment your success that is primarily derived from your capping abilities. After last event, I will definitely redistribute my units just for my own sake. Counting numbers in single digits instead of double or triple will save a lot of headaches. And thanks for the congrats! You are a gentleman and a scholar.
     

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