UFN 104 - Bermudez vs Korean Zombie - Houston

[chanp6]

You don't watch invicta, I thought ?

Eggink ko was awesome, actually. She's not that far below tecia at all. And Souza is also UFC level for 115, easily

And 32, but she was just starting mma in Tuf. She had one fight. Had to fight esparza, Torres, namajunas.

People laying -400 are crazy, imo.

I favor Andrade. Absolutely. But I swear it's like people don't care if someone is -200 or -400.. when the difference is gigantic

curious to hear about your thoughts on the U2.5 being at 2.00

 

[BatBoyJG]

You guys never learn with the whole betting on juiced faves in WMMA. For real dawgs don't do it. Andrade is good for sure but it just isn't worth it, especially if you haven't been watching Hill in Invicta (Which the line makers are hoping you haven't) remembering Hill before def gives justification on laying the juice, but just no.

 

[EzFlyer]

Preliminary Card (FS1, 8 p.m. ET)

Adam Milstead +145
Curtis Blaydes -185

Over 1.5 -150
Under 1.5 +110
–

Chris Gruetzemacher +180
Chas Skelly -260

Over 1.5 -135
Under 1.5 -105
–

Ricardo Lucas Ramos +170
Michinori Tanaka -230

Over 1.5 -185
Under 1.5 +145
–

Bec Rawlings +200
Tecia Torres -280

Over 2.5 -280
Under 2.5 +200
–

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass, 7 p.m. ET)

Alex Morono +110
Niko Price -150

Over 1.5 -185
Under 1.5 +145
–

Daniel Jolly +150
Khalil Rountree -190

Over 1.5 -110
Under 1.5 -130
–

 

[EzFlyer]

taking morono +110 (wish it was a live bettable fight, tho)

O1.5 gruetzemacher-skelly -135?

 

[EzFlyer]

curious to hear about your thoughts on the U2.5 being at 2.00

i bet the over.

 

[kenfloshogun]

Hmm Ramos' line interesting, what do people thinka bout that one?

 

[Joseph Budden]

Am I missing something, or are the bookies crazy to have Morono as a dog here? That kid is tough as fuck for all 3 rounds and I wasn't impressed with Niko too much when watching him for Ufc 207

 

[Sunwater]

Jolly +150? I'm gonna be all over that if I can get that price. Fading Rountree hard who doesn't seem to care about losing.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Hmm Ramos' line interesting, what do people thinka bout that one?

Initial thought is Tanaka -230 is way too juiced. Ramos can match him athletically, he seems to have better instincts on the feet, and while its Rani Yahya there were a lot of stupid af decisions in scrambles and positioning from Tanaka in that fight. Ramos can get caught as Vasquez showed, but feel like hes not one to just surrender position or be as frustrating as Tanaka with shit fight IQ.

Liking Ramos as a dog at current price. Have a feeling money will come in on him though, and not playing anything yet.

 

[EzFlyer]

depressed about the HW price, all i can say

 

[piglord]

depressed about the HW price, all i can say

were you looking to play blaydes?

 

[Joseph Budden]

Can anyone find Price vs Hosch?

I'm 2.5u deep on Morono to start, and could be tempted to do a little more if the price stays in + odds after some tape watching last 30 mins

EDIT now Morono -125 lol knew I should've done more than 2.5u while not limited just casue that was gonna happen

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Mark my words, one of the female favourites will lose this weekend and I think I know who it is.

 

[Orion]

Mark my words, one of the female favourites will lose this weekend and I think I know who it is.

I think Andrade smashes hill but it's one of those things where I wouldn't pass out shocked if she lost either. Her striking is technically ugly, just powerful. Someone like JJ would exploit the shit out of it with her jab and front kicks, but maybe Hill can get something going too.

 

[iGnP]

Never a bad idea to take the dog in a WMMA fight. Most juiced favorites aren't worthy of the price, unless we're talking JJ

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

I think Andrade smashes hill but it's one of those things where I wouldn't pass out shocked if she lost either. Her striking is technically ugly, just powerful. Someone like JJ would exploit the shit out of it with her jab and front kicks, but maybe Hill can get something going too.

Andrade doesn't deserve to be such a big favourite, Hill is live. A higher percentage of underdogs cash in WMMA. There have been two WMMA fights this year in the UFC and favourites won both times. And I doubt five WMMA favourites cash in a row, a dog is due, Hill is that dog. I'm not picking her because of probability though.

 

[iGnP]

Andrade doesn't deserve to be such a big favourite, Hill is live. A higher percentage of underdogs cash in WMMA. There have been two WMMA fights this year in the UFC and favourites won both times. And I doubt five WMMA favourites cash in a row, a dog is due, Hill is that dog. I'm not picking her because of probability though.

fallacy

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

fallacy

Not fallacy, it's relevant information but it's not the reasoning behind my pick as I already said.
A female dog will cash this weekend, just wait.

 

[iGnP]

Not fallacy, it's relevant information but it's not the reasoning behind my pick as I already said.
A female dog will cash this weekend, just wait.

Saying a dog is 'due' to hit because 4 favorites have hit in a row IS a fallacy

If you flip a coin and it comes up 99 heads in a row, the next flip is equally as likely to be heads as it is tails. There's no such thing as being 'due'

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gamblersfallacy.asp

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Saying a dog is 'due' to hit because 4 favorites have hit in a row IS a fallacy

If you flip a coin and it comes up 99 heads in a row, the next flip is equally as likely to be heads as it is tails. There's no such thing as being 'due'

Yeah I'm well aware of that argument, as I already said it's not the reason I'm picking Hill but it is something to note (already said that twice lol).

But when the last time five female favourites cashed in a row though? I never base picks on probability but I do pay attention to it.