UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

[Joseph Budden]

http://www.mmafighting.com/2017/1/15/14272432/ufc-fight-night-103-odds-gambling-guide

Prince Jed bless with that Lauzon bet recommendation

 

[Ukram]

Oh that's where she is. Well, could it be just women's boxercise she's "coaching"? I mean, she's not coaching actual MMA fighters in boxing is she? I hope not...

I def read somewhere she is a lead boxing coach at her gym, but yeah she could just be boxercising.
Either way its hilarious

 

[Ukram]

UFC Fight Night 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn Prelims PBP (Discussion) 6:15pm ET/3:15pm PT/11:15pm UK

https://www.ufc.tv/video/ufc-phoenix-2017-fight-pass-prelims

Just under 6 hours away

 

[Buddy Brown]

@Sham5916910 you missed a juicy +240 invicta dog last night

 

[NinjaCat456]

BJ is the best at making people think he's back.

I'll live bet him if I can actually see him look good.

You realise how live betting works? The prices change constantly as the fight happens. If BJ's looking good you won't be getting him at +333 like you can now. At that price it's worth dipping your toe in.

Some of us are making the classic mistake of thinking an outcome is impossible and missing out on a great betting opportunity, just like we did 2 weeks ago with Cody.

 

[NinjaCat456]

Not an an unpopular opinion, it's just sentimental people betting BJ. The same thing happened last time he came back.

BJ's only hope is an early Yair mistake. There's not enough reasons to bet on him.

Is +333 not reason enough? Sure he looked bad against Frankie Edgar...just like everybody else does (bar Jose). Not looking great against Edgar and monsters at 170 isn't a good enough reason to fade him, Yair isn't in the same league as most of BJ's previous opponents.

 

[Shoulder]

Is Ben the dog now? I have to play that.

1.5U at 2.10. I see him having multiple ways to win and have. I have not been impressed by Court lately... Might even consider adding 0.5 more.

 

[Buddy Brown]

Is +333 not reason enough? Sure he looked bad against Frankie Edgar...just like everybody else does (bar Jose). Not looking great against Edgar and monsters at 170 isn't a good enough reason to fade him, Yair isn't in the same league as most of BJ's previous opponents.

No it's not.

There's looking bad, then there's looking like a complete and utter laughing stock and retiring in the post fight presser and admitting you shouldn't have come back

If you want to bet on him for fun because it's BJ and you're a fan, fine, but there's literally no reason to put a serious bet on him. He hasn't won a fight since 2010 and has took a beating that's sad to watch every time he's returned

I guess Yair could be wreckless and make a mistake on the ground early, but otherwise BJ is going to gas early like he always does and be a sitting duck. That's not enough for a serious bet.

If BJ comes out looking like a killer, I'll eat crow. But I won't regret not betting on him. There's literally no tape and no reason to believe he still has what it takes.

Also, he should be fighting a tune up like Siver or Miller. Not a legit prospect.

 

[Sham5916910]

@Sham5916910 you missed a juicy +240 invicta dog last night

Never watched invicta so no knowledge. How many dogs normally bark on a show 50 50?

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

My Expert Picks:

Rodriguez
Lauzon
Saunders
Pettis
Klose
Saenz
Martin
Oliynyk
Ansaroff
Harris
Christensen
Asker

 

[Sham5916910]

No it's not.

There's looking bad, then there's looking like a complete and utter laughing stock and retiring in the post fight presser and admitting you shouldn't have come back

If you want to bet on him for fun because it's BJ and you're a fan, fine, but there's literally no reason to put a serious bet on him. He hasn't won a fight since 2010 and has took a beating that's sad to watch every time he's returned

I guess Yair could be wreckless and make a mistake on the ground early, but otherwise BJ is going to gas early like he always does and be a sitting duck. That's not enough for a serious bet.

If BJ comes out looking like a killer, I'll eat crow. But I won't regret not betting on him. There's literally no tape and no reason to believe he still has what it takes.

Also, he should be fighting a tune up like Siver or Miller. Not a legit prospect.

I agree but if im well up its gonna be tough not to dump a unit on him.

 

[Buddy Brown]

Never watched invicta so no knowledge. How many dogs normally bark on a show 50 50?

Couldn't give you an estimate but very often. That +240 was just a blind Elizabeth Phillips fade and she got head kick ko'd in the first

I cash dogs on invicta all the time. It's becoming my 2nd fave event to bet on and I'm going to actually start tape studying properly for it

 

[Buddy Brown]

I agree but if im well up its gonna be tough not to dump a unit on him.

That's not something I do but I don't blame you, whatever floats your boat. Just saying there's no reason to put a serious bet on BJ before the event. If he comes out looking good I'll bet on him live, but I'm just not going to assume he'll look good beforehand

 

[AffectEffect]

@Buddy Brown

You may need a few more years of experience gambling, but talking people out of betting huge skilled dogs is amateurish.

Looking for value is the most important thing in gambling. His grappling advantage alone is enough to justify this huge price.

The time to talk someone out of a bet is like when that guy was touting not cerrone tKo @ -700 vs cote, now that is a dangerous bet. There is almost no risk involved in getting a former world champ @ above +350 and every sharp capper wants to take a line like that when it comes up.

 

[wack3d]

No it's not.

There's looking bad, then there's looking like a complete and utter laughing stock and retiring in the post fight presser and admitting you shouldn't have come back

If you want to bet on him for fun because it's BJ and you're a fan, fine, but there's literally no reason to put a serious bet on him. He hasn't won a fight since 2010 and has took a beating that's sad to watch every time he's returned

I guess Yair could be wreckless and make a mistake on the ground early, but otherwise BJ is going to gas early like he always does and be a sitting duck. That's not enough for a serious bet.

If BJ comes out looking like a killer, I'll eat crow. But I won't regret not betting on him. There's literally no tape and no reason to believe he still has what it takes.

Also, he should be fighting a tune up like Siver or Miller. Not a legit prospect.

i understand where you are coming from and wont fault anyone for passing on the fight .. but imo there is reason to belive Penn will looks better at least compared to that Edgar fight.. for one he is training at a top camp at elevation for about a year and he is back with Parillo so we should not see tippy toe Penn this time

and then there is the fact that he is not going up against a top 5 fighter like he have been since his loosing streak started.. and all the fighter Penn lost to would also beat Yair easily imo

 

[Oblivian]

They keep replaying Rosa vs. Yair on FS1 and FS2. Yair gives up position and passes all of the time on the ground. Honestly, he's almost a spaz on bottom.

 

[Sham5916910]

They keep replaying Rosa vs. Yair on FS1 and FS2. Yair gives up position and passes all of the time on the ground. Honestly, he's almost a spaz on bottom.

Yeah i remember that fight it was pretty close too if i recall correctly?

 

[Sham5916910]

Couldn't give you an estimate but very often. That +240 was just a blind Elizabeth Phillips fade and she got head kick ko'd in the first

I cash dogs on invicta all the time. It's becoming my 2nd fave event to bet on and I'm going to actually start tape studying properly for it

I will prob join ya all fights are on fp. Im starting from scratch tho so gonna take me a few events to get up to speed.

 

[Oblivian]

Yeah i remember that fight it was pretty close too if i recall correctly?

It was a split, but Yair clearly won IMO. Rosa gasses out pretty bad.

 

[Buddy Brown]

@Buddy Brown

You may need a few more years of experience gambling, but talking people out of betting huge skilled dogs is amateurish.

Looking for value is the most important thing in gambling. His grappling advantage alone is enough to justify this huge price.

The time to talk someone out of a bet is like when that guy was touting not cerrone tKo @ -700 vs cote, now that is a dangerous bet. There is almost no risk involved in getting a former world champ @ above +350 and every sharp capper wants to take a line like that when it comes up.

Okay Mr. Patronising. I've had plenty of experience. Pointless assumption.

Please tell me how you can know a play is value when you've not seen the fighter you're betting on look good for SEVEN YEARS. 2555 days.

There have been plenty of amazing grapplers in MMA who have got old, gone on losing streaks to prospects (or even bums) and retired. Just because he has a grappling advantage doesn't mean there's "no risk involved"

He's a former champ... Who's last win was in a different era of MMA.

I don't blame people for betting on BJ for fun, but don't tell me a bet on him is 100% without a doubt great value and a no brainer when we have absolutely no tape to go off whatsoever to prove he still has it. It's just a blind guess.