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UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

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On another note, doesn't like half the card train at the MMA lab? Wonder if that's a good or a bad thing.
 
Just some food for thought. I would have gone bigger than 1u on Nina +100, but I will not be able to live bet this fight and the fight most likely going to a decision combined with the fact that there could be Jones Lybarger potential home town screwjob has held me back. It is also wmma...
 
HumbleCoco said:
Watching Lauzon after low level wmma was a real pleasure.
I must admit at first glance I underestimated Lauzon - I thought he was stagnating and Held had shown developments in his striking that I really liked. While I stand behind Held developing quickly in his hands, Lauzon has jumped up levels as well. The difference between how he looked versus Dunham to Miller is big. He definitely is self-aware to realise that he needed to jump that game and has done so significantly, almost think Lauzon may well have been injuried in some way in the Dunham fight in hindsight. He picked shots well, timed counters on the inside and there was very little of muay thai plodding that was so predominant in his and many others in earlier MMA. (PS off topic but developing footwork is my favourite part of modern MMA - I'm not really talking cruz/dillashaw here either, I'm talking just seeing pivots more often is bringing me joy.)

This is still MMA, and the ground game of Held is always that little X-factor but damn it's hard to submit another veteran without there being a major differential and there just isn't here - 5 minutes is never that long. Lauzon has also shown greater understanding of position with time, you watch the Sanchez/Held fight and see it won with the "AZTEC! AZTEC!" elbows on the ground. I don't see much evidence that Lauzon couldn't do the same, at least in part.

The worry for me personally is that Held could be in a period in his career where he will jump up levels in skill with each fight and overtake Lauzon with a shot that lands with just a little too much athletic power and change the dynamic ala Iaquinta. And I have lingering questions on when Lauzon loses his love for the game. However, I'm often the eternal optimist for developing fighters.

If you got better odds on Lauzon I congratulate you. Now at 1.72 its a little more tricky for me but I'm going to go in for 1u to try to break my habit of faith based picks.

The over is interesting - I really think it'll shape up to be an extremely exciting fight and both fighters will have their moments - hell Held nearly popped Sanchez's head until he did a back flip using the cage and the finish will always be in our minds but that's Lauzon for you, and I honestly think it will go the distance but I don't need that stress in my life and the odds aren't worth it.
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I don't agree at all with him underperforming in the Dunham fight. Dunham was an absolute horrible matchup for him. That's not the first time Lauzon has looked like that either. It was very similar to when he was shutout by Johnson and how he looked in the first two rounds of the first Miller fight. He has a lot of trouble with guys he can't swarm (through either quickness or length) or has trouble taking down. I mean you can even trace that further back to Stout. Not saying these are really relevant to Held as they are totally different matchups, but I just wanted to point that out. I think he'd look very similar to that if he fought Dunham again who I honestly think is better than Lauzon everywhere.
 
waiguoren said:
8e488a7a604a07d1d2f27104e161ba5d


mackenzie_tanquinho


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Damn what a lucky guy augusto is. win or lose he can go home and bang this hot chick like there is no tomorrow.

And I bet @Joseph Budden would EBI wrestle his dick into her vagina if he had a chance
 
Repost from before Asker made his UFC debut.

Was doing some digging on Asker, this is what I found:

Weird finish...


Mistakenly recorded as 1st round finish on Sherdog. Some nasty GnP.


EFC debut, striking doesn't look great.



Most of his finishes seem to be on the ground despite having a boxing background, he has an aggressive ground game - always looking for a dominant position (purple belt in BJJ).

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2016/2/9...-vs-taisumov-heavyweight-cyril-asker-mma-news
 
Oblivian said:
I don't agree at all with him underperforming in the Dunham fight. Dunham was an absolute horrible matchup for him. That's not the first time Lauzon has looked like that either. It was very similar to when he was shutout by Johnson and how he looked in the first two rounds of the first Miller fight. He has a lot of trouble with guys he can't swarm (through either quickness or length) or has trouble taking down. I mean you can even trace that further back to Stout. Not saying these are really relevant to Held as they are totally different matchups, but I just wanted to point that out. I think he'd look very similar to that if he fought Dunham again who I honestly think is better than Lauzon everywhere.
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You are right that there's a history. If it being related to swarming is an apt observation, I did initially think Lauzon had stagnated and that could well be the reason why.
The main point is that I feel I saw a lot of nice developments in the last Miller fight and the stand up is where I place a potential route to victory for Held, just enough for a bet. Also finishing Sanchez is always a nice feather in the cap. Held could well do a full on shut out on the feet once again but I don't have enough evidence for that, like I said I used to make those potential bets too much.

How do you see the match up out of interest?
 
Amazing lb card just hope we get lb for the whole show.

Come on with rivera line ffs
 
I need to post a disclaimer before I go into Saunders/Mcgee. I kind of dislike Saunders a bit unfairly, while I respect anyone who tries to develop facets of MMA beyond the zeitgeist he just rubs me off as like an aikido zealot for Tenth Planet. I get the sense he is unreasonably confident in his game, he has nearly zero respect for defense when someone moves past his kicks and gets consistently dropped in fights because of it (I found it a little fun when he got crumpled by Cote). He elects for the clinch instead and while that can be effective it doesn't fill that entire gap in distance from his kicks - think how cowboy has added so much into that range and the developments he's gained from it.
Mcgee has shown moments of power that could exploit it, a classic overhead right from his training parter Chuck is in his arsenal, he landed a few nicely in the opening of Ponz fight. However, he still has closing to the fence as a big part of his game which will give Saunders his opportunities - I can imagine him disliking being the end of the kicks and falling back to that too. He did use it less in the Steele fight, with a little better lateral movement in the first but did fall back to it.
I think I need someone else to come in and give a little more detail before I make a bet but I'm leaning Mcgee. There's a gameplan that ends up with Saunders on his ass after a big punch but I worry I'm fading Saunders unfairly.
That same ass could also end up tangling and finishing Mcgee with how he likes to grind - a better opportunity than most for Saunders to do it. U2.5 is currently at 2.4 and I may well look at ITD the when it comes out.
 
If Mendes is what he could be on the ground then a submission is distinct possibility but if not Saenz's of experience in striking should be pronounced. Having said that, Mendes definitely has better fundamentals than you might expect for a not very long MMA career.
Saenz was training with Cejudo but more recently on his instagram he's been as elevation and Bang - must imagine he's got the wrestling to avoid the ground. I feel I'm quite confident in Saenz. Originally I was going to play the under/ITD alongside Saenz but I might actually lean towards just hedging with Mendes by submission but the odds might ruin that.
This could make or break for Mendes, his career has been accelerated a little bit and I kind of feel sorry for him if he does lose. Feel like he's another BJJ practioner who would rather just do BJJ.
 
HumbleCoco said:
You are right that there's a history. If it being related to swarming is an apt observation, I did initially think Lauzon had stagnated and that could well be the reason why.
The main point is that I feel I saw a lot of nice developments in the last Miller fight and the stand up is where I place a potential route to victory for Held, just enough for a bet. Also finishing Sanchez is always a nice feather in the cap. Held could well do a full on shut out on the feet once again but I don't have enough evidence for that, like I said I used to make those potential bets too much.

How do you see the match up out of interest?
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I honestly think it's close to dead even. I mentioned earlier that everyone is talking about Held just chasing legs, and his last few wins have been about positional dominance. I can see his grappling vs Lauzon's surprising people here.
 
Oblivian said:
I honestly think it's close to dead even. I mentioned earlier that everyone is talking about Held just chasing legs, and his last few wins have been about positional dominance. I can see his grappling vs Lauzon's surprising people here.
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Very fair. He's definitely not an Entwistle like I've heard in some places. Definitely think he will have a lot of great moments.
 
i like pesta +125.

i think he's more athletic and faster than oleinik. he's also bigger. both guys weigh around 240 but pesta is 6'3, oleinik's what, 6'1? another biggie: he's 26 years old to oleink's 39.

yea, he gasses. but so does oleinik.
 
I would be on 2014 Oliynk but 2 years off with injuries and then coming back and losing most of his fight on the ground where he should be dominant.. USADA hangs in the air. Yet, Pesta hasn't fared well against proper competition and is coming off a life changing KO just in August. I lean Oliynk but there's not the value, might come back to it.
 
EzFlyer said:
i like pesta +125.

i think he's more athletic and faster than oleinik. he's also bigger. both guys weigh around 240 but pesta is 6'3, oleinik's what, 6'1? another biggie: he's 26 years old to oleink's 39.

yea, he gasses. but so does oleinik.
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Same lean. I didn't like what I saw from Oliynyk in his last fight, think his best days are over.
 
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