UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

[wack3d]

 

[Buddy Brown]

Man nina looks good to me in both ufc fights. Solid standup with some power. Should have got nod over kish. And bonus not one head and arm throw attempt. Need to watch lybargar but if she is how i recall 5 units on nina may be incoming.

Wheres this nina vid lads you talk of?

Mmmmmmm

 

[OneWarrior1]

I just saw this. I've seen enough. 2U on Nina at 1.87

 

[OneWarrior1]

I like Nina by forward pressure, diverse striking, higher volume, and active ground game to fall back on. Oh and she trains at ATT while trailer trash trains at MMA Lab.

 

[waiguoren]

Leaning on Saenz but I'm not 100% sure what type of grappler Mendes is. The match up issue is that Saenz usually is a threat with his wrestling but he prob doesn't want to play too much with the grappling against Mendes.

Obviously a BJJ champion and I hear Augusto's wrestling ain't too bad but I still don't know what type of grappler he is. Choke specialist? Guard passer? Guard player? Etc etc..

@waiguoren you familiar with this guy? Does his style translate well into MMA?

High level in the gi, more of a tactician than a killer, not the best athlete, hard to pinpoint what he excels at.

 

[waiguoren]

Leaning on Saenz but I'm not 100% sure what type of grappler Mendes is. The match up issue is that Saenz usually is a threat with his wrestling but he prob doesn't want to play too much with the grappling against Mendes.

Obviously a BJJ champion and I hear Augusto's wrestling ain't too bad but I still don't know what type of grappler he is. Choke specialist? Guard passer? Guard player? Etc etc..

@waiguoren you familiar with this guy? Does his style translate well into MMA?

Also he is together with "hot chick" Mackenzie Dern so Brick Top and J. Budden should have something to say on the matter.

 

[Buddy Brown]

Also he is together with "hot chick" Mackenzie Dern so Brick Top and J. Budden should have something to say on the matter.

He's tapping that?

 

[Buddy Brown]

Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuccccccccccckkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk you MFers are going to convince me to bet a low level WMMA fighter aren't you

Need to watch tape

 

[Slohog]

Can anyone break down the womans fight before i watch tape?

Man nina looks good to me in both ufc fights. Solid standup with some power. Should have got nod over kish. And bonus not one head and arm throw attempt. Need to watch lybargar but if she is how i recall 5 units on nina may be incoming.

Wheres this nina vid lads you talk of?

I'm big on Nina at ~1.85 or so. Think they're about the same size and she has a bunch of edges I like. That said Lyberger apparently asked for the fight and says all the right things in interviews so who knows.

It comes down to Lyberger being a decision machine with decent striking without power or volume, while Nina is a lot more flashy standing up, looks faster, looks to have some kind of power, goes for a lot of subs and such.

If there's a finish I think it's Nina by sub and if it goes to a decision I think her aggression and flashy kicks might win over superior pure boxing, especially if judges are supposed to like stuff that looks like it hurts rather then point fighting. I assumed she'd be a decent favorite so I'm all over this at even money.

I also want to make a joke about how she's the only female fighter to have tapped Nunes, but I've yet to figure out how to make it fun.

I'm also on Klose, I think Powell is absolutely horrible. Dude was spending 3 rounds on bottom against some guy in the middle of a 10-fight losing streak winning a dec by putting up half hearted sub attempts just a year ago or so. Then he got a robbery over some .50 fighter in WSOP, his best win might be over a 7-4 fighter and the best guy he's been up against was against some 6-6 34 y/o.

Somehow he's a black belt in BJJ but he still seems to be able to have cans in a fully locked triangle for ~3 min without figuring out how to get a tap, has no top control, no TDD and no athletic ability that I can see. He has fairly decent sweeps though.

His stand up looks like really too, but to his credit he looks less horrible in each fight, but there has to be a limit on how much better he can become in a few months when he's the main instructor at some gym with no fighters I've ever heard of.

Klose on the other hand looks like a fairly legit prospect that could be a somewhat decent action fighter for a couple of years. Probably never gonna be top10 or anything, but he certainly deserves a chance in the UFC.

 

[Slohog]

Also thinking about the under in Saenz vs Mendes.

Mendes can probably sub him fast if it hits the floor, so Saenz needs to sprawl and brawl. Mendes got knocked down by a 5-5 fighter in his last fight before he got signed with the UFC: http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Donald-Williams-65293

Think he might get KTFO or get a sub quite a bit, but havn't decided yet.

 

[Officer_Brown]

Who do you like here Sherman vs Harris ?

harris ofc

 

[Joseph Budden]

Also he is together with "hot chick" Mackenzie Dern so Brick Top and J. Budden should have something to say on the matter.

lmfao would have more respect for her if she was with Frankie Saenz

 

[HumbleCoco]

I feel gross trying to tape study some of the fighters on this card. I think the best way to win on this event for me avoiding plays 'just for action'.

Wish the UFC would pay far more to the lower levels, really think it would raise the level of training if they were all doing it full time.

 

[raketmannen]

harris ofc

Really that confident in harris? His cardio is a big problem and his striking output is low. Indeed sherman is as sloppy as it gets and his defense and head movement is shit. But he proved in the ledet fight that he can take a punch to the head (more like 100 punches to the head) and will still come forward and throw volume.

 

[waiguoren]

He's tapping that?

 

[HumbleCoco]

Okay so I think I've seen enough for Nina/Lyberger.
Lyberger does very few things but she does have a good understanding of how to employ them - even if her own physicality prevents her from doing so e.g. Against Torres she did a good job of cutting the ring to the fence but Torres had the speed to throw off the fence as well as the physicality to hold Lyberger off when she tried to clinch with relative ease.
Nina shares some of the same problems. Although I have more faith that she has room to develop. She also has an issue related to pacing - while she does definitely have higher output. Again in the Lima fight she was extremely game, she lays it all out there but all of it hasn't been enough. That final round always feels a bit scary if she ever had the opponent to exploit it as fatigue sets in.
I am pretty sure that Lyberger feels she can bring a pressure game to Nina and get takedowns to win the fight. Nina also likes to pressure and reacts to pressure by planting her feet and throwing - against her previous physical opponents with better striking this has been a losing combination. I think best case for Lyberger her boxing lands her good shots - she might well get it to the cage, but I do not see the takedowns being there for her - but she could gas Nina into the 3rd round. This could even happen if Nina does very well, she might hunt a finish and end up being shocked in the last round by a zombified Lyberger.
However, this is not the most likely scenario and she deserves to be the underdog. Nina should just be better a little bit everywhere. Nina has shown better output, more diverse attacks but seems to have shown far more development already across her fights and is at a camp which may well be the best for WMMA - this fight is important in judging that.

I do want to note, I really do not buy into the trains with X so should be good, I've been burned by it before. There's so many jobbers for 'that' guy/gal in the gym, I wouldn't be surprised if it sometimes hampers development (from personal experience it can be hard to learn when you are getting destroyed). This is slightly different to a good camp/coach however which is also true for Nina.

The pick is definitely Nina for me - probably by decision, maybe submission if she her development has accelerated over the entire year that she has been out. Couldn't find anything on that being due to injury either.

I wouldn't blame you if you throw a little weight into the bet either - this is a tricky card so we'll take what we can get.

 

[OneWarrior1]

Saenz was pressuring Faber in standup and giving him fits. Mendes looked confused against garbrandt. I think Saenz can do the same.

 

[Roads55]

mcgee the dog at evens? tyvm, think he'll trade lower than that

 

[HumbleCoco]

Watching Lauzon after low level wmma was a real pleasure.
I must admit at first glance I underestimated Lauzon - I thought he was stagnating and Held had shown developments in his striking that I really liked. While I stand behind Held developing quickly in his hands, Lauzon has jumped up levels as well. The difference between how he looked versus Dunham to Miller is big. He definitely is self-aware to realise that he needed to jump that game and has done so significantly, almost think Lauzon may well have been injuried in some way in the Dunham fight in hindsight. He picked shots well, timed counters on the inside and there was very little of muay thai plodding that was so predominant in his and many others in earlier MMA. (PS off topic but developing footwork is my favourite part of modern MMA - I'm not really talking cruz/dillashaw here either, I'm talking just seeing pivots more often is bringing me joy.)

This is still MMA, and the ground game of Held is always that little X-factor but damn it's hard to submit another veteran without there being a major differential and there just isn't here - 5 minutes is never that long. Lauzon has also shown greater understanding of position with time, you watch the Sanchez/Held fight and see it won with the "AZTEC! AZTEC!" elbows on the ground. I don't see much evidence that Lauzon couldn't do the same, at least in part.

The worry for me personally is that Held could be in a period in his career where he will jump up levels in skill with each fight and overtake Lauzon with a shot that lands with just a little too much athletic power and change the dynamic ala Iaquinta. And I have lingering questions on when Lauzon loses his love for the game. However, I'm often the eternal optimist for developing fighters.

If you got better odds on Lauzon I congratulate you. Now at 1.72 its a little more tricky for me but I'm going to go in for 1u to try to break my habit of faith based picks.

The over is interesting - I really think it'll shape up to be an extremely exciting fight and both fighters will have their moments - hell Held nearly popped Sanchez's head until he did a back flip using the cage and the finish will always be in our minds but that's Lauzon for you, and I honestly think it will go the distance but I don't need that stress in my life and the odds aren't worth it.

 

[rille31]

bojan dropping down to lhw

moraga is a hometown fighter