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UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix
- Thread starter Officer_Brown
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Watched Drakkar Klose and Devin Powell tape.
Klose is not too technical, however violent and strong; quite like him. Definitely better than Powell.
Even though I agree with the consensus here about Powell being not MMA material, I still think he's so random there's a chanche he could win with his unprobable high spinning kicks, clumsy shootings and whatnot therefore don't feel the current rate for Klose @ 1.43 too attractive.
Klose is not too technical, however violent and strong; quite like him. Definitely better than Powell.
Even though I agree with the consensus here about Powell being not MMA material, I still think he's so random there's a chanche he could win with his unprobable high spinning kicks, clumsy shootings and whatnot therefore don't feel the current rate for Klose @ 1.43 too attractive.
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- Joined
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http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/full-ufc-fight-night-103-betting-odds/
couple of years ago, McGee/Saunders seemed like the type of high-volume fight which I simply wouldn’t be very interested in. However, both men suffering TKO losses recently has me more intrigued, as I’m not just expecting a decision. Saunders has more stopping power than McGee, especially as McGee can tend to leave his chin open as he closes the distance. Also, once McGee does get inside, he’ll have to score takedowns quickly or be forced to deal with Saunders’ dangerous clinch game. Getting rocked repeatedly in his past few fights seems to have robbed McGee of some of his willingness to exchange and throw at the high pace he became known for, but he pushes a high pace with his grappling, and that’s his path to victory in this one. I just can’t help but feel like Saunders is able to do enough damage on the feet to win this fight, by stoppage or decision.
When I went to watch Augusto Mendes in preparation for this fight, I was surprised that his striking was significantly more polished than I expected. I’m not sure that will be enough to beat Frankie Saenz here, but if he’s continued sharpening that tool, it could persuade Saenz to go to his wrestling, and Mendes (a BJJ world champion) definitely wants this fight on the ground. Regardless of position, Mendes is a danger on the mat, which is rare in today’s game. Still, I feel like the most likely outcome is that Saenz navigates his way to the clinch and works Mendes over for a decision. Given Mendes’ lone UFC appearance however, I could see this line getting out of hand to the point that Mendes may be playable.
Once upon a time, Viktor Pesta seemed like he was going to be a good prospect, and now he’s an underdog to 39-year-old Oleksiy Oliynyk. Oliynyk is closing on the 20th anniversary of his first MMA bout, and a surprising amount of his game that worked back in the late 90’s still works today. The big concern for him in this bout is gassing and Pesta being able to outwrestle him for the final two rounds, but Pesta’s cardio has looked poor in his UFC tenure, so I think the old man gets it done one more time.
Tony Martin has all the skills of a quality of MMA fighter, until, all of a sudden he doesn’t. His cardio problems have plagued him in the UFC thus far, although he did look better from that perspective in his last performance. I also like this matchup for him quite a bit. Alex White is a featherweight coming in on somewhat late notice to fight a massive lightweight, and White is extremely hittable. Martin’s best two punches, the left hook and right straight, are exactly what give White the most trouble, and he’s also a much better submission grappler. Unless his cardio eludes him again, Martin should come through with an impressive performance here.
Perhaps the line on Nina Ansaroff will be affected by her relationship with Amanda Nunes. If that’s the case and she gets some undeserved respect, I may have to side with Lybarger here. Ansaroff is extremely inactive, and shows poor defense in most of her fights. Lybarger should be technical enough to exploit that, while avoiding the takedowns that got her in trouble previously.
Drakkar Klose is in a different realm athletically than Devin Powell. Powell’s high-volume kicking game shuts a lot of fighters on the regional scene down, but Klose likes to use his speed to counter, and I fully expect that to be a big factor allowing him to close the distance and avoid getting caught at Powell’s kicking range. In the end, Powell has shown a good chin, so I think he makes the final bell, but he’ll probably take some damage to get there.
The early portion of the Fight Pass prelims is awesome. Two real prelim-level heavyweight bouts, and a light heavyweight bout between two former heavyweights. The potential for Fatties Gonna Fatty is everywhere, and in keeping with the tradition outline in one of my recent articles, I’m almost bound by playing the overs here. Also, I’m picking Sherman, Smoliakov, and Christensen.
couple of years ago, McGee/Saunders seemed like the type of high-volume fight which I simply wouldn’t be very interested in. However, both men suffering TKO losses recently has me more intrigued, as I’m not just expecting a decision. Saunders has more stopping power than McGee, especially as McGee can tend to leave his chin open as he closes the distance. Also, once McGee does get inside, he’ll have to score takedowns quickly or be forced to deal with Saunders’ dangerous clinch game. Getting rocked repeatedly in his past few fights seems to have robbed McGee of some of his willingness to exchange and throw at the high pace he became known for, but he pushes a high pace with his grappling, and that’s his path to victory in this one. I just can’t help but feel like Saunders is able to do enough damage on the feet to win this fight, by stoppage or decision.
When I went to watch Augusto Mendes in preparation for this fight, I was surprised that his striking was significantly more polished than I expected. I’m not sure that will be enough to beat Frankie Saenz here, but if he’s continued sharpening that tool, it could persuade Saenz to go to his wrestling, and Mendes (a BJJ world champion) definitely wants this fight on the ground. Regardless of position, Mendes is a danger on the mat, which is rare in today’s game. Still, I feel like the most likely outcome is that Saenz navigates his way to the clinch and works Mendes over for a decision. Given Mendes’ lone UFC appearance however, I could see this line getting out of hand to the point that Mendes may be playable.
Once upon a time, Viktor Pesta seemed like he was going to be a good prospect, and now he’s an underdog to 39-year-old Oleksiy Oliynyk. Oliynyk is closing on the 20th anniversary of his first MMA bout, and a surprising amount of his game that worked back in the late 90’s still works today. The big concern for him in this bout is gassing and Pesta being able to outwrestle him for the final two rounds, but Pesta’s cardio has looked poor in his UFC tenure, so I think the old man gets it done one more time.
Tony Martin has all the skills of a quality of MMA fighter, until, all of a sudden he doesn’t. His cardio problems have plagued him in the UFC thus far, although he did look better from that perspective in his last performance. I also like this matchup for him quite a bit. Alex White is a featherweight coming in on somewhat late notice to fight a massive lightweight, and White is extremely hittable. Martin’s best two punches, the left hook and right straight, are exactly what give White the most trouble, and he’s also a much better submission grappler. Unless his cardio eludes him again, Martin should come through with an impressive performance here.
Perhaps the line on Nina Ansaroff will be affected by her relationship with Amanda Nunes. If that’s the case and she gets some undeserved respect, I may have to side with Lybarger here. Ansaroff is extremely inactive, and shows poor defense in most of her fights. Lybarger should be technical enough to exploit that, while avoiding the takedowns that got her in trouble previously.
Drakkar Klose is in a different realm athletically than Devin Powell. Powell’s high-volume kicking game shuts a lot of fighters on the regional scene down, but Klose likes to use his speed to counter, and I fully expect that to be a big factor allowing him to close the distance and avoid getting caught at Powell’s kicking range. In the end, Powell has shown a good chin, so I think he makes the final bell, but he’ll probably take some damage to get there.
The early portion of the Fight Pass prelims is awesome. Two real prelim-level heavyweight bouts, and a light heavyweight bout between two former heavyweights. The potential for Fatties Gonna Fatty is everywhere, and in keeping with the tradition outline in one of my recent articles, I’m almost bound by playing the overs here. Also, I’m picking Sherman, Smoliakov, and Christensen.
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http://www.fightmatrix.com/2017/01/...ufc-fight-night-103-rodriguezpenn-01-14-2017/
Ring rust
- B.J. Penn 924 days
- Augusto Mendes 329 days
- Tony Martin 351 days
- Alex White 344 days
- Nina Ansaroff 379 days
Ring rust
- B.J. Penn 924 days
- Augusto Mendes 329 days
- Tony Martin 351 days
- Alex White 344 days
- Nina Ansaroff 379 days
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2012
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- 13,576
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- 810
Short Notice:
- Oleksiy Oliynyk (in for Damian Grabowski) vs. Viktor Pešta [2 weeks]
- Alex White (in for Erik Koch) vs. Tony Martin [1 month]
- Drakkar Klose (in for Jordan Rinaldi) vs. Devin Powell [1 week]
- John Moraga (in for Jussier Formiga) vs. Sergio Pettis [1 week]
- Oleksiy Oliynyk (in for Damian Grabowski) vs. Viktor Pešta [2 weeks]
- Alex White (in for Erik Koch) vs. Tony Martin [1 month]
- Drakkar Klose (in for Jordan Rinaldi) vs. Devin Powell [1 week]
- John Moraga (in for Jussier Formiga) vs. Sergio Pettis [1 week]
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Confirmed full live betting showing from first fight for unibet, hopefully the rest of them follow !
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Everyone on the left in the screen shot in OP will win
Actually I think alex white and Ben Saunders will win, but my ballsy prediction is "everyone on the left"
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Notes:
- BJ Penn returning from injury (Ricardo Lamas) Oct
- Sergio Pettis returning from injury (Louis Smolka) Oct
- John Moraga returning from injury (Zach Makovsky) Dec
- Frankie Saenz returning from TKO loss July
- Augusto Mendes returning from TKO loss Feb
- Viktor Pešta returning from TKO loss Aug
- Tony Martin returning from neck injury (Michel Prazeres) July
- Alex White returning from injury (Ryan Hall) July
- Devin Powell UFC debut
- Drakkar Klose UFC debut
- Bojan Mihajlović returning from TKO loss July
- Cyril Asker returning from TKO loss April
- BJ Penn returning from injury (Ricardo Lamas) Oct
- Sergio Pettis returning from injury (Louis Smolka) Oct
- John Moraga returning from injury (Zach Makovsky) Dec
- Frankie Saenz returning from TKO loss July
- Augusto Mendes returning from TKO loss Feb
- Viktor Pešta returning from TKO loss Aug
- Tony Martin returning from neck injury (Michel Prazeres) July
- Alex White returning from injury (Ryan Hall) July
- Devin Powell UFC debut
- Drakkar Klose UFC debut
- Bojan Mihajlović returning from TKO loss July
- Cyril Asker returning from TKO loss April
I placed a bet on Saenz, but with almost a year to train since his debut, I wouldn't be surprised if Mendes' striking looks a lot sharper this time out.
I agree, I think getting Held at any kind of + odds is the way to go here
last I checked, the odds on inside the distance (+511) were slightly better than sub (+500); just a heads up for everyone. That said, isn't there a chance BJ keeps it close? wouldn't we be better off just putting a small amount on his ML at close to +400 than inside at barely over 500?
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Definitely. Everyone and their mother thought Bisping would win ITD for example, and there's been countless others last year too.
Really? ageism? LMAO.
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Everyone betting BJ must have not watched his last fight and the post fight press conference
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What happened at the presser?
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