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UFN 101 - Whittaker vs Brunson - Australia
- Thread starter Ukram
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i do it every week, sadistics =P i'm glued to my pc / phone, serious case of FOMO
maybe i overbet akhmedov opener, even tho -120 was excellent price.. hrmm. gonna buy a little back with noke +135, but i still do like omari here
maybe i overbet akhmedov opener, even tho -120 was excellent price.. hrmm. gonna buy a little back with noke +135, but i still do like omari here
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I think Holbrook is pretty bad and Matthews can just keep this on the feet and strike his way to a win.
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I hate these prices.
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Matthews is the rightful favourite but I think this could be competitive. Taking the dog on this one...
I also think Matthews is a smidge overhyped.
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Care to expound ?
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Took Herrera at -105 his opener was crazy I definitely favor him
Also on Akhmedov Noke is on his way out of the UFC. Although I don't love the price that I got
Put a little bit on Tuck. The last guy Brown fought had 0 striking defense. Also 1 unit on Whittaker.
Also on Akhmedov Noke is on his way out of the UFC. Although I don't love the price that I got
Put a little bit on Tuck. The last guy Brown fought had 0 striking defense. Also 1 unit on Whittaker.
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Style "Beautiful" LOL
Also EZ I am opposite to you on Hooker Vs Knight. Knight I think can make this a gritty fight, and has good cardio. Hooker struggles to make 145 (Missed it last time) and I think might gas himself. Hoping for a better price but I see Knight as a live dog. Kinda digging the under 2.5 as well.
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http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/full-ufc-fight-night-101-betting-odds/
Whittaker versus Brunson is a fantastic bout, and a case could easily be made for either man. Whittaker is the sharper striker of the two, and he has shown tremendous takedown defense in his UFC career, which would seem to match up well with Brunson’s game. However, Brunson’s striking has been devastating of late, and his aggression, southpaw stance, and reach has allowed him to swarm on several opponents before they are able to react. The question here is what happens once Brunson closes the distance because Whittaker has shown an iron chin since moving up to 185 (most notably eating some massive kicks from Uriah Hall and seeming completely unfazed). Is Brunson able to control long stretches up against the cage or eventually get takedowns? If he can’t — and I don’t believe either of those things will happen — I have to side with Whittaker. Brunson has shown a bit of a vulnerable chin in the past, and while he’ll be controlling the majority of this fight and more likely to win a decision, I have to think Whittaker is able to clip him over 25 minutes.
Holbrook is sort of in the Damon Jackson mould of grappler, where he’s a solid technician and good enough physically that he can overwhelm nearly everyone on the regional scene. However, his lack of top-end athleticism causes him to struggle once he gets to the next level. Matthews is quite the opposite. He has a ways to go technically and is prone to some mistakes befitting his age, but he’s impressive physically. I don’t think Holbrook is crafty enough to overcome that gap, and I expect Matthews to take a decision here at worst.
This could be Noke’s last stand, and it will be a struggle for him early. Akhmedov should be able to get takedowns, land big shots, and potentially even finish the fight early. However, Noke will have the edge as this fight drags out, since Akhmedov fades like few others in MMA. Will the Aussie have enough to score a late finish or take a decision? I actually don’t think so, as the takedowns will come just a bit too easily for the Russian and he won’t gas like he normally does.
Volkanovski is really a featherweight, and he will struggle when he runs into an actual lightweight who can strike a bit. While his wrestling has looked good on the regional scene, I don’t think it will prove effective beyond the lower levels of the UFC. That means he’ll be forced to strike, where his size (5-foot-5) will put him at a distinct disadvantage against anyone capable on the feet. Luckily for him, Kasuya is essentially a perfect matchup, as the Japanese fighter only really offers a submission game, and doesn’t have the wrestling to get this fight down. Volkanovski will actually have an edge on the feet here, and should just stay standing to look for the TKO, which I expect to come.
Pedro has an average fight time of 2:05 across his first four pro bouts, but perhaps not in the way you’d expect. He has grounded several of those opponents and found submissions. That should be the plan against Rountree as well, who struggled badly with the wrestling of a natural middleweight in his UFC debut. I’m not sold on the potential some see in Rountree, and I’ll go against the name value travelling across the world to face a big grappler. Sidenote: Rountree is the oldest looking 26-year-old since LeBron James was 26.
Taylor didn’t look bad against Maryna Moroz…when she pulled the trigger. Unfortunately for her, those occasions were few and far between. Against a far more active Ham, we could see Taylor come out and match her pace, or recede even further into her shell. I hope it’s the former, but I’m not willing to take a position on either side. As for a pick, I have to side with what I’ve seen, and that’s Ham being capable of outworking Taylor to a decision.
Daniel Kelly: The power of two first names. If you bet $100 on him in each of his five UFC bouts, you’d be up $880 right now. That’s insane. He’s yet to be favored in a UFC bout, and that won’t change here. The expectation is that Camozzi should be able to use his superior striking and movement to pick Kelly apart at range. But if Kelly somehow manages to close the distance (or get Camozzi to do it for him) would you really be shocked if he starts scoring some Judo throws or trips, and scores a top position victory? Me either. At this point, I’m almost forced to bet him if the number is above +250.
I finally decided to stop fading Tuck last fight, and he puts on his worst performance. He’s really one of those fighters I can’t get a handle on. Physically and technically, he should be able to beat Brown, either by exploiting his opponent’s bad striking defense or his terrible takedown defense. However, I definitely get the sense that Brown has more desire to win, more cardio, and is a more consistent fighter (even if that level of consistency is below what Tuck is capable of). Now watch Tuck come out and dust Brown like he did Jake Lindsey. I certainly won’t be backing him though.
Meunier hung around longer than I expected him to against Colby Covington, which was nice because his cardio was one of the things that was a big question mark about him. Walsh won’t be able to manhandle him like Covington, and that means Meunier might get a chance to show off his striking here. Even if it does turn into a close quarters fight, I’m not sure Walsh has a grappling edge either. If I can get Meunier at a dog price based on the utter dominance he suffered in his UFC debut, I may have to take that shot. Remember how TUF Nations went for the Australians?
Nguyen against Herrera is a good fight, one of the best on this card. The UFC hasn’t released the full broadcast information for this card, but if my math is right, this fight is going to be the opening FS1 prelim. What? Not even the featured Fight Pass prelim? At any rate, I expect this to be back-and-forth no matter where it takes place. Herrera gave Ali Bagautinov plenty to worry about on the ground in their fight, and has some solid stand up with a bit of flash. Nguyen is much more fundamental on the feet but extremely dangerous with the tools he does use. On the ground, he’s better than the mauling he took at the hands of Louis Smolka made him seem. I think Herrera may take this by being more willing to switch his game up, but I would need a decent plus number to bet either guy here.
Knight won his last fight by using improved striking against a very limited stand-up fighter in Jim Alers. If he tries to employ the same gameplan here, things won’t go well for him. Hooker is a longer, more powerful, more diverse striker who keeps a high pace on the feet. The problem for Knight is that his wrestling game probably isn’t good enough to force this into a grappling match either. Hooker looks like a good parlay piece to me, and if he drops below -150 somehow I’ll be playing him straight.
When this fight was scheduled to be in Vancouver at UFC on Fox 21 I wrote this: “I may end up betting Guangyou as the underdog here, as Marlon Vera continues to underwhelm me. Vera has been taken down and controlled in all of his UFC fights, and I think Guangyou is powerful enough to continue that trend. Perhaps Vera can find a submission like he did in his lone UFC win against Roman Salazar, but I’m willing to take a chance that he doesn’t.” Now that the fight is going to take place on Guangyou’s side of the world, I like him even more. The age and lack of activity are concerns, but Vera simply has not looked good in the UFC.
YAO’s YA BOY! Although in this fight, he may not be. Lausa has a vastly superior striking game than Zhikui, and has shown good hips in avoiding takedowns. He can get a bit reckless at times on the feet which could open up some easy takedowns for Zhikui, but I don’t imagine the Chinese fighter can do much with them. Yao’s biggest tools to win so far have been his toughness and cardio, and with Lausa just going 25 minutes in his fight before getting signed to the UFC, I don’t think that cardio edge will be there either. Even with the UFC being a bit more lenient towards Chinese fighters, I think this might be Yao’s last stand in the Octagon.
Whittaker versus Brunson is a fantastic bout, and a case could easily be made for either man. Whittaker is the sharper striker of the two, and he has shown tremendous takedown defense in his UFC career, which would seem to match up well with Brunson’s game. However, Brunson’s striking has been devastating of late, and his aggression, southpaw stance, and reach has allowed him to swarm on several opponents before they are able to react. The question here is what happens once Brunson closes the distance because Whittaker has shown an iron chin since moving up to 185 (most notably eating some massive kicks from Uriah Hall and seeming completely unfazed). Is Brunson able to control long stretches up against the cage or eventually get takedowns? If he can’t — and I don’t believe either of those things will happen — I have to side with Whittaker. Brunson has shown a bit of a vulnerable chin in the past, and while he’ll be controlling the majority of this fight and more likely to win a decision, I have to think Whittaker is able to clip him over 25 minutes.
Holbrook is sort of in the Damon Jackson mould of grappler, where he’s a solid technician and good enough physically that he can overwhelm nearly everyone on the regional scene. However, his lack of top-end athleticism causes him to struggle once he gets to the next level. Matthews is quite the opposite. He has a ways to go technically and is prone to some mistakes befitting his age, but he’s impressive physically. I don’t think Holbrook is crafty enough to overcome that gap, and I expect Matthews to take a decision here at worst.
This could be Noke’s last stand, and it will be a struggle for him early. Akhmedov should be able to get takedowns, land big shots, and potentially even finish the fight early. However, Noke will have the edge as this fight drags out, since Akhmedov fades like few others in MMA. Will the Aussie have enough to score a late finish or take a decision? I actually don’t think so, as the takedowns will come just a bit too easily for the Russian and he won’t gas like he normally does.
Volkanovski is really a featherweight, and he will struggle when he runs into an actual lightweight who can strike a bit. While his wrestling has looked good on the regional scene, I don’t think it will prove effective beyond the lower levels of the UFC. That means he’ll be forced to strike, where his size (5-foot-5) will put him at a distinct disadvantage against anyone capable on the feet. Luckily for him, Kasuya is essentially a perfect matchup, as the Japanese fighter only really offers a submission game, and doesn’t have the wrestling to get this fight down. Volkanovski will actually have an edge on the feet here, and should just stay standing to look for the TKO, which I expect to come.
Pedro has an average fight time of 2:05 across his first four pro bouts, but perhaps not in the way you’d expect. He has grounded several of those opponents and found submissions. That should be the plan against Rountree as well, who struggled badly with the wrestling of a natural middleweight in his UFC debut. I’m not sold on the potential some see in Rountree, and I’ll go against the name value travelling across the world to face a big grappler. Sidenote: Rountree is the oldest looking 26-year-old since LeBron James was 26.
Taylor didn’t look bad against Maryna Moroz…when she pulled the trigger. Unfortunately for her, those occasions were few and far between. Against a far more active Ham, we could see Taylor come out and match her pace, or recede even further into her shell. I hope it’s the former, but I’m not willing to take a position on either side. As for a pick, I have to side with what I’ve seen, and that’s Ham being capable of outworking Taylor to a decision.
Daniel Kelly: The power of two first names. If you bet $100 on him in each of his five UFC bouts, you’d be up $880 right now. That’s insane. He’s yet to be favored in a UFC bout, and that won’t change here. The expectation is that Camozzi should be able to use his superior striking and movement to pick Kelly apart at range. But if Kelly somehow manages to close the distance (or get Camozzi to do it for him) would you really be shocked if he starts scoring some Judo throws or trips, and scores a top position victory? Me either. At this point, I’m almost forced to bet him if the number is above +250.
I finally decided to stop fading Tuck last fight, and he puts on his worst performance. He’s really one of those fighters I can’t get a handle on. Physically and technically, he should be able to beat Brown, either by exploiting his opponent’s bad striking defense or his terrible takedown defense. However, I definitely get the sense that Brown has more desire to win, more cardio, and is a more consistent fighter (even if that level of consistency is below what Tuck is capable of). Now watch Tuck come out and dust Brown like he did Jake Lindsey. I certainly won’t be backing him though.
Meunier hung around longer than I expected him to against Colby Covington, which was nice because his cardio was one of the things that was a big question mark about him. Walsh won’t be able to manhandle him like Covington, and that means Meunier might get a chance to show off his striking here. Even if it does turn into a close quarters fight, I’m not sure Walsh has a grappling edge either. If I can get Meunier at a dog price based on the utter dominance he suffered in his UFC debut, I may have to take that shot. Remember how TUF Nations went for the Australians?
Nguyen against Herrera is a good fight, one of the best on this card. The UFC hasn’t released the full broadcast information for this card, but if my math is right, this fight is going to be the opening FS1 prelim. What? Not even the featured Fight Pass prelim? At any rate, I expect this to be back-and-forth no matter where it takes place. Herrera gave Ali Bagautinov plenty to worry about on the ground in their fight, and has some solid stand up with a bit of flash. Nguyen is much more fundamental on the feet but extremely dangerous with the tools he does use. On the ground, he’s better than the mauling he took at the hands of Louis Smolka made him seem. I think Herrera may take this by being more willing to switch his game up, but I would need a decent plus number to bet either guy here.
Knight won his last fight by using improved striking against a very limited stand-up fighter in Jim Alers. If he tries to employ the same gameplan here, things won’t go well for him. Hooker is a longer, more powerful, more diverse striker who keeps a high pace on the feet. The problem for Knight is that his wrestling game probably isn’t good enough to force this into a grappling match either. Hooker looks like a good parlay piece to me, and if he drops below -150 somehow I’ll be playing him straight.
When this fight was scheduled to be in Vancouver at UFC on Fox 21 I wrote this: “I may end up betting Guangyou as the underdog here, as Marlon Vera continues to underwhelm me. Vera has been taken down and controlled in all of his UFC fights, and I think Guangyou is powerful enough to continue that trend. Perhaps Vera can find a submission like he did in his lone UFC win against Roman Salazar, but I’m willing to take a chance that he doesn’t.” Now that the fight is going to take place on Guangyou’s side of the world, I like him even more. The age and lack of activity are concerns, but Vera simply has not looked good in the UFC.
YAO’s YA BOY! Although in this fight, he may not be. Lausa has a vastly superior striking game than Zhikui, and has shown good hips in avoiding takedowns. He can get a bit reckless at times on the feet which could open up some easy takedowns for Zhikui, but I don’t imagine the Chinese fighter can do much with them. Yao’s biggest tools to win so far have been his toughness and cardio, and with Lausa just going 25 minutes in his fight before getting signed to the UFC, I don’t think that cardio edge will be there either. Even with the UFC being a bit more lenient towards Chinese fighters, I think this might be Yao’s last stand in the Octagon.
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Love the prices on Guangyou (-115), Meunier (-120), Pedro (+120), and Akhmedov (-140). Never been impressed with Vera, Guangyou should win a comfortable decision. Meunier seems like the all around better fighter with better physical attributes, despite losing his debut to Covington who IMO should be top 15. Pedro should be able to take down and submit Rountree who has no TDD nor ground game. And I see Akhmedov grounding Noke to a decision.
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Everything seems too spot on. I think Meunier wins by decision so with the o2.5 priced at -130 i'll probably get a good line on that. Praying a +200 price on Tuck decision. But everything else is right where it should be, so its going to be a thought process figuring out what to hit once everything is released
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Same probably biggest bet of the card 3U.
Edit:
also parlayed over in the ham and matthews fight.
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Daniel Kelly - http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/u...g/news-story/c932a4ae05bf7ca1fc68f7a3d2699153
“I’m not Mystic Mac, but hopefully I’ll submit him in Round 1 or 2,” Kelly said.
“It will be a drawn out, painful night for him.
“I’ll pressure him. I’ll make his life a living hell. The longer fight goes, and I know he trains at altitude, but the better it is for me.”
There’s be no secret what I’ll try and do ... I’ll try and put him on his back.”
he has to deal with jet lag and deal with being in a new environment.
“I’m not Mystic Mac, but hopefully I’ll submit him in Round 1 or 2,” Kelly said.
“It will be a drawn out, painful night for him.
“I’ll pressure him. I’ll make his life a living hell. The longer fight goes, and I know he trains at altitude, but the better it is for me.”
There’s be no secret what I’ll try and do ... I’ll try and put him on his back.”
he has to deal with jet lag and deal with being in a new environment.
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I don't agree, I nailed a few lines I really like
Nguyen for example can only win in rd1.. Herrera finally getting an appropriate matchup instead of elite guys , Herrera edge in rd2/3, can hang everywhere .. nguyjen maybe more power early but that's it
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