UFC Vegas 83: Song Yadong vs Chris Gutierrez, December 9

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UFC Vegas 83...

Event has been moved from China to Las Vegas.


Song Yadong vs Chris Gutierrez, December 9

Song Yadong is 9-2-1 in the UFC.

Chris Gutierrez is 8-2-1 in the UFC and he fought 56 days (8 weeks) prior to December 9, on October 23.

https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/76164
https://fightodds.io/mma-events/5281/ufc-fight-night/odds

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Shortly after Yan finished Andrade, Dana claimed Weili defending her title against Yan in China was a no brainer. It still appears that it should be a no brainer given that there is still no Main Event scheduled, yet Dana now claims that fight isn't going to happen, at least not for this event. Does anyone know why he has changed his mind other than he is prone to do so?
 
so is the korean tiger fighting on this card or what?
 
Song Yadong will face Chris Gutierrez in the UFC Shanghai main event Dec. 9, sources confirmed with ESPN on Tuesday. MagicM_MMABets on X first reported the news.

Song (20-7-1, 1 NC) is coming off a 5th round TKO over Ricky Simon in April. The China native, who lives and trains in California, has just two losses in his past 14 fights. Song, 25, was ranked ESPN's No. 1 MMA fighter under 25 years old in 2021.Gutierrez (20-5-2) has just one loss in his past 10 fights. The Texas native, who fights out of Colorado, is coming off a win over Alateng Heili on Oct. 14.

Gutierrez, 32, knocked out legend Frankie Edgar in Edgar's final career fight in November 2022.

The card takes place at the Shanghai Indoor Arena and is the UFC's first event in China since August 2019.It was originally reported that a matchup between Yadong and former UFC bantamweight champion Petr Yan was in the works for the Shanghai event, but talks fell through in recent months.Yadong was supposed to face Rob Font at UFC 292 before withdrawing due to injury. Font went on to face Cory Sandhagen in a short-notice bout in Nashville.Yadong earned a finish of Ricky Simón in his last UFC fight back in April. He got back in the win column after a loss to Sandhagen in Sept. 2022.Before a loss to Sandhagen, Yadong was on a roll into the bantamweight rankings with recent finishes of Marlon Moraes and Julio Arce.Yadong will face a tough test in Gutierrez. After a unanimous decision loss to Pedro Munhoz back in April, he bounced back in a big way with a dominant win over Alatengheili last month.Gutierrez has finished the likes of Frankie Edgar, Vince Morales, and Batgerel Danaa during his rise up the ranks. He is 8-2-1 in his UFC tenure.The card is being finalized as of this writing but also features the returns of Jamie Mullarkey, André Muniz, and Tatsuro Taira.




Song Yadong is supremely quick and explosive, both in his ability to slip punches and counter, but also in his sprawls. Song Yadong is constantly evolving between fights, and that’s one of the variables always present, what new developments and changes will we see in his style every time he fights? As he progresses towards bigger stages, and likely more five-round contests as with his last, we have seen him shorten his stance, elect to plod forward instead of bounce and leap, and pick his moments to explode more efficiently. Song has shown excellent head movement as of late and a superior ability to strike off of angles. Song used a very crafty, slip off the right hand and angle back with a counter left hook in a recent outing. He also likes to lead with the right cross or right body kick then follow up with a whipping left hook. Song is extremely powerful and has excellent timing, however one habit which has been exploited in the past, is he doesn’t jab his way into range. He will often shuffle his way in and look to land with power right off the bat.

Chris Gutierez is one of the most educated strikers in the sport today. He is accurate and fluid, floating in and out with ease and incredible distance management. He will look to switch stance and tag his opponents with long jabs without overextending, in order to draw out his opponent’s attack so as to pull counter with his left jab or check left hook. Although Gutierrez has great boxing, it’s really his kicking game that has caused him to stand out. He is very good at managing range in a way to land his spinning hook kicks and back kicks, chopping at the calf in between to stagger and freeze his opponents in place. It is a common notion for his opponents that being the forward pressuring fighter, does render Gutierrez’s style more difficult to pull off however, it always runs the risks of allowing Gutierrez to give space and cut that space off with a devastating knee down the middle or spinning back fist.
 
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Nothing quite like Shanghai night in Las Vegas.

I would guess the Chinese didnt want q random fight night and are waiting for that Weili vs Yan fight instead. I guess either one of them is injured.
 
muniz +225 is wide. should be closer to even. turtle has been historically underrated but i'm shocked at how much respect he's getting here.

kenan song getting disrespected again at +140. how is this even possible? (i guess he is 0-2 in vegas, but no way he's worse than even here.)

hyun sung park -525 right now is laughable. he got dropped by topnoi and looked awful in his last fight. ross has been finished in his last 3 but park doesn't have the power of kleydson or jesus.

smith +205 feels off. will happily sprinkle. easy to see him getting slaughtered by leg kicks. but i can also see him winning with range. he also has the advantage if it hits the ground.
 
Not gonna lie, some of those odds look tasty af.

Hopefully none of the lines getsm too much smash before they reach bookie of mine.
 
I'm on Hernandez beating taira. Think he is a bit over rated.

Khalil over Smith. Smith last fight. I think Khalil will mess his legs up and smiths shots not gonna work to save his ass.

Also fading Nascimento, as I think he's not as sturdy, and that Su is gonna have a little breakout on this fight.

Nasrat should likely roll as well, Mullarkey was lucky to get the decision last time out. He won't be so lucky this night

Also think odds too wide for Egger and Luana Santos. Probably on the Egger side

And does anyone think yadong loses here? I have trouble believing he loses.


Tldr

Yadong/Hernandez/nasrat/Rountree/Egger/Su
Are my plays I like currently
 
Also think odds too wide for Egger and Luana Santos. Probably on the Egger side


I looked into this fight before the odds dropped and don’t see any value on Egger. Santos is twelve years younger than Egger who just turned 35. Both are judokas and while I would give a slight grappling edge to Egger, I think the grappling is going to more or less cancel out. Egger is a very uncomfortable striker who is constantly backing herself up in a straight line until her head inevitably hits the cage fence. Santos in contrast is very aggressive on the feet, consistently making improvements fight to fight, and seems to have some power.

I think the most likely outcome is Santos TKOing Egger, probably in the 1st round. If you go back to Egger’s fight against Alexa Conners, the only fight of her career where she was forced to strike for an extended period of a time, she was for all intents and purposes TKOd standing the exact same way Santos stopped her last opponent.



Santos is playable imo up to -200 but better spots on the card.
 
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I wanted to play Park small before odds came out, expecting him to open at least +160, whereas I’d cap this as a near pick ‘em, with a slight edge to Muniz. Muniz +200 is unexpected and very welcome.
 
Two fights ago Muniz would have been a sizeable favorite over Park. I guess the public doesnt expect Muniz to win fights anymore now that hes been finished. But is Park really on the level of Allen/Craig on the ground? Something makes me doubt it. If I were to play Park Id take his itd line as he probably completely breaks Andre rather than outpoints him.

I feel the same about Sumudarji. He gets that Schell stoppage, he would be heavy fav here. But it was such a crazy fight..Does Allen ave that dog in him? Id be happier to play him if the card was in China though.

Out of favs I think Yadong and Taira are safe bets. Taira is so talented I wouldnt be worried until he fights better competion. Like top 10 guys. They know what they are doing in the matchmaking.

Narrative wise Song also has a showcase fight. Chris is tough but Id think he gets stopped in rds 3-5 through volume.
 
Sigh….

i might just bet Smith by submission and be done with it. i think Khalil is a border white belt on the ground. he’s managed to avoid grapplers some how, but i’ve seen how bad his grappling is before.

I actually think Spann is a better fighter than Khalil.
 
Also agree Muniz is a great pick as a moderate underdog.

I'd agree that Hyun Sung Park might have issues, but I couldn't justify even a stab at Shannon Ross. Fragile flyweight with average skills who I'm surprised still hasn't been cut.

I could not fault someone for picking Kenan Song as a dog here, but I honestly really like Kevin Jousset. I can see this being an unpopular opinion, and I might end up looking like an idiot, but if I'm right about him, it could be the kind of fight where -170 looks like a gift in retrospect.
 
Sigh….

i might just bet Smith by submission and be done with it. i think Khalil is a border white belt on the ground. he’s managed to avoid grapplers some how, but i’ve seen how bad his grappling is before.

I actually think Spann is a better fighter than Khalil.

I'm also worried about the gas tank of Khalil. He looked really tired and sloppy vs Jacoby already in R2. If he looks the same vs Smith in the 2nd round I can see Smith having success with takedowns.
With that said, i really don't trust Smith any more. He feels washed and I don't think his head is in the game any longer. I'm also not sure Smith has what it takes to push the pace vs Khalil the same way Jacoby did, so fight might take place at the pace that Khalil wants and in that case Khalils cardio and takedown defence probably holds up.
I can see Khalil just breaking him in R1 with leg kicks and brutal punches. Might play Khalil R1 and nothing else.
 
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