UFC Vegas 79: Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot, September 23

[B.Goetz]

Took Mizuki over Goldy (-235). Looks like a squash match for Mizuki, who is returning from a three year layoff from an ACL injury. Very different skill and talent levels here. If Mizuki is healthy, she should dominate here.

 

[Thesnake101]

Might put $5 on Brundage by KO or something. Malkoun always seems to get rocked early, and Cody swings hard early on top of being a decent wrestler when not pulling for dumbass guillotines.

 

[sonhow]

I dont know how Brundage gets another fight. His last fight one of the worst Ive seen recently and took off gloves after. A trip to psychiatrist office is what he needs is more than a fight.
...That being said if he fixed his head he might have something in this fight.

Also why is 2-0 Usman fighting 2-5 Collier who is on bad skid? Seems pretty unfair matchmaking to Jake.

Mizuki is way better than Goldy but all the layoffs and inactivity looks bad. One scenario Goldy outworking Mizuki on top while Mizu hunts for subs and doesnt get them. Other than that I want to say Mizu feels like a "sure thing"

 

[Georges Hefner]

not an easy card … i only like Fiziev and Argueta

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Man Ige as a descent sized underdog at +155 is tempting. Could be Bryce vs Illia all over again if Ige has sured up his takedown defence. On the feet it's not even close. Ige looked good vs Nate. I don't know, I think I have to play Ige at least small at these odds.

 

[jnes]

I see value on Means at +170. Fiahlo is really just a boxer that wings bombs and has been brutally finished in his last 3 fights. Tim is really old but he has more striking options, better grappling, better cardio, bigger, way more experience, fights for your money. As long as he doesn't have his lights put out which has happened once in 50 pro fights, I'll gladly take a stab on him.

 

[jnes]

Man Ige as a descent sized underdog at +155 is tempting. Could be Bryce vs Illia all over again if Ige has sured up his takedown defence. On the feet it's not even close. Ige looked good vs Nate. I don't know, I think I have to play Ige at least small at these odds.

Ya Ige at +150 or higher is nuts, 50/50 fight imo. Definitely betting Ige.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

I see value on Means at +170. Fiahlo is really just a boxer that wings bombs and has been brutally finished in his last 3 fights. Tim is really old but he has more striking options, better grappling, better cardio, bigger, way more experience, fights for your money. As long as he doesn't have his lights put out which has happened once in 50 pro fights, I'll gladly take a stab on him.

agreed. Played Means +170 when I saw the odds 2 weeks ago or so

 

[Thesnake101]

I see value on Means at +170. Fiahlo is really just a boxer that wings bombs and has been brutally finished in his last 3 fights. Tim is really old but he has more striking options, better grappling, better cardio, bigger, way more experience, fights for your money. As long as he doesn't have his lights put out which has happened once in 50 pro fights, I'll gladly take a stab on him.

Keep in mind that Means has been getting rocked more and more the older he's gotten, even in some of his wins like against Staropoli and Dalby he had to burn time off the clock in the clinch after getting tagged late.

Not bad odds for Tim but he's 39 now, wouldn't be shocking to see Andre tee off on him.

 

['Suga Daddy']

Ya Ige at +150 or higher is nuts, 50/50 fight worth. Definitely betting Ige.

Interesting. I see this as a bounce back for Bryce considering Ige was destroyed by Movsar (who i don’t rate highly) and KZ on the ground. No debating that Bryce has better control than KZ

 

[Mackronus]

I rarely post as a bettor but I see Ige as a dog as a fantastic bet. He’s looked consistently good whilst I’ve seen Bryce having struggled recently. I think Bryce fades as the rounds go on and Ige taking over this fight by volume alone.

Feel less certain about Gamrot but I’ll happily take him as a dog as well here. Good luck to everyone!

 

[jnes]

Interesting. I see this as a bounce back for Bryce considering Ige was destroyed by Movsar (who i don’t rate highly) and KZ on the ground. No debating that Bryce has better control than KZ

KZ is an underrated grappler himself. Ige should be able to chew him up on the feet, +150 is wide and who knows how Bryce will look after getting destroyed last fight and nearly retiring. Need to see him in form again before betting him as a favourite. Like I said I see it as a 50/50 fight so it’s a must bet from my capping.

Edit: Just see he’s jumped to +162 now.

 

[StewDogg11]

I rarely post as a bettor but I see Ige as a dog as a fantastic bet. He’s looked consistently good whilst I’ve seen Bryce having struggled recently. I think Bryce fades as the rounds go on and Ige taking over this fight by volume alone.

Feel less certain about Gamrot but I’ll happily take him as a dog as well here. Good luck to everyone!

He looked bad in one fight against Topuria and even with the flu managed to score a takedown and maintain top control for a couple of minutes. Mitchell via decision or submission.

 

[guesswhoseback]

He looked bad in one fight against Topuria and even with the flu managed to score a takedown and maintain top control for a couple of minutes. Mitchell via decision or submission.

Everyone claims they sick or hurt after a fight they get dominated in

 

[StewDogg11]

Everyone claims they sick or hurt after a fight they get dominated in

No they certainly don’t.

 

[Thesnake101]

Everyone claims they sick or hurt after a fight they get dominated in

Even without that I think there's a lot of difference between having to fight Topuria and having to fight Ige.

Prior to the Landwehr fight I would've sided with Dan, but idk anymore. If Bryce is as aggressive with his takedowns as he usually is then I think he'll control Dan for most of the bout.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

I really don't get the love for Bryce. Wins against Barboza, Fili and Rosa is descent, but not more I would say.
Barboza is like a nuke that could go off at any time or just fizzle out, Bryce looked good in that fight though... But it feels like anyone can win or lose against Barboza these days. Fili is like a tailor made matchup for Bryce, no real finishing power and bad takedown defence. Rosa is... meh.

Ige has looked really solid lately and he is a top level guy in my opinion. He did get brutally dominated against Korean Zombie which is a really bad look and this is the big red flag for me. However he did beat Nate pretty easy last time out, not sure how much to make of it, but he beat him pretty handily.

Not saying Ige is a lock or anything, perhaps Bryce comes out and dominates with his wrestling and look like -200... I will not be surprised if that happens. But, I can also see a world where Ige stuffs majority of takedowns, there is a lot of cage stalling from Bryce who struggles to get the fight to the ground and anytime they are in the open Ige just lights him up.

I see Bryce as a small favourite, but man, Ige is a dog and has great stand-up. I took a 0.5U shot @+170, the odds are just to wide.

 

[Thesnake101]

I really don't get the love for Bryce. Wins against Barboza, Fili and Rosa is descent, but not more I would say.
Barboza is like a nuke that could go off at any time or just fizzle out, Bryce looked good in that fight though... But it feels like anyone can win or lose against Barboza these days. Fili is like a tailor made matchup for Bryce, no real finishing power and bad takedown defence. Rosa is... meh.

Ige has looked really solid lately and he is a top level guy in my opinion. He did get brutally dominated against Korean Zombie which is a really bad look and this is the big red flag for me. However he did beat Nate pretty easy last time out, not sure how much to make of it, but he beat him pretty handily.

Not saying Ige is a lock or anything, perhaps Bryce comes out and dominates with his wrestling and look like -200... I will not be surprised if that happens. But, I can also see a world where Ige stuffs majority of takedowns, there is a lot of cage stalling from Bryce who struggles to get the fight to the ground and anytime they are in the open Ige just lights him up.

I see Bryce as a small favourite, but man, Ige is a dog and has great stand-up. I took a 0.5U shot @+170, the odds are just to wide.

Ige does his best work when guys try to strike with him, he shines there but that's not at all what Bryce does whenever he fights. Sure, Edson is a bit washed but he still turned down Billy Q in his last one, and Burgos prior to losing to Giga and Bryce, and it's not like it was a particularly close fight either.

And let's be completely honest, neither Nate nor Damon are as good as Bryce. They're pretty tough and physical guys but they have a low ceiling greatly centered around their durability, especially Landwehr. If Dan can acquit himself in the wrestling early on then he's live, but if not, well... Bryce is not gonna slow down.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Ige does his best work when guys try to strike with him, he shines there but that's not at all what Bryce does whenever he fights. Sure, Edson is a bit washed but he still turned down Billy Q in his last one, and Burgos prior to losing to Giga and Bryce, and it's not like it was a particularly close fight either.

And let's be completely honest, neither Nate nor Damon are as good as Bryce. They're pretty tough and physical guys but they have a low ceiling greatly centered around their durability, especially Landwehr. If Dan can acquit himself in the wrestling early on then he's live, but if not, well... Bryce is not gonna slow down.

I'm not sold on Bryce that's all. Topuria is an absolute monster so no shame in losing to him at all, but it was the way he lost. I mean it wasn't even close, Topuria just absolutely destroyed him in all aspects. Topuria made Bryce look like a regional fighter to be honest.
Ige doesn't have the same wrestling as Topuria has, but it has looked better... sure against Damon and Nate so not the best opponents, but he should be drilling TDD constantly given the matchup. Everyone knows that if the fight is kept standing, Ige probably wins and if it's on the ground Bryce probably wins.

Bryce feels like the kind of fighter that we 1-2 years from now wonder, how could this guy ever have this much hype?

 

[Flexstyle]

Usman is at 1.72 right now. Amazing value IMO. Yes he's trash but Collier is even worse.