UFC Paris: Ciryl Gane vs Serghei Spivac, September 2, France

[DabanggData]

UFC Paris

Ciryl Romain Jacky Gane vs Serghei Spivac

Good Kid vs Polar Bear

Saturday 09.02.2023 at 12:00 PM ET

https://twitter.com/search?q=#UFCParis &src=typed_query&f=live

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/102007-ufc-fight-night

https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/74316

https://fightodds.io/odds/4802/ufc-fight-night-gane-vs-spivac

Nora Cornolle +115 was born and lives 13 miles away, 38 minute drive --- Muay Thai kickboxer who competes internationally for France., her unlisted reach is 1.7 m, which is 66.9291 inches, 3.149606 inch reach disadvantage, 1 inch shorter in height

https://www.tapology.com/fightcente...-nora-cornolle-vs-joselyne-la-pantera-edwards



Joselyne Edwards is a boxing-based fighter who uses her reach well and knows she can change the tide of the fight with her hands and she throws as such. She has a very patient pace in all aspects but carefully chooses when to let loose. For the most part expect her to use short steps, kind of walk into range almost casually with a high guard but burst into wide combinations when she senses the right opening. Her kicks are also mostly used to prod and range find so that she can land her hands in a flurry. Her patience is also reflected in her ground game, off her back typically she has less to offer in terms of offense and her ability to counter-position is usually by waiting for a lapse in concentration, a mistake, or a moment of shifting balance on which she can capitalize. The double-edged sword here is that if that moment does not present itself she is left in a non-dominant position as the clock ticks on her, but because she isn’t constantly forcing her way to a sweep or submission her gas tank typically holds up as she stays relaxed. Edwards has a susceptibility to low kicks, because she is not only boxing driven but power driven she puts a lot of weight on her front leg when she swings. Edwards throws her own kicks primarily to manage distance in order to set up flurries from her hands.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Not saying the line is wrong, but it's pretty crazy that Rose opened up @+210. Same fighter that not that long ago beat Weili Zhang twice.

 

[Broe.]

Not saying the line is wrong, but it's pretty crazy that Rose opened up @+210. Same fighter that not that long ago beat Weili Zhang twice.

She is moving up in weight for this fight and Fiorot is huge. I don't see how this is gonna go well for Rose who was not even a big strawweight. Puzzling move

 

[Jasper_RB81]

She is moving up in weight for this fight and Fiorot is huge. I don't see how this is gonna go well for Rose who was not even a big strawweight. Puzzling move

No I agree, it's a tough match-up and I'm not running to the window betting Rose... it's just wild how times have changed for Rose.

 

[PuertoRican]

"A light heavyweight bout between former UFC Light Heavyweight Championship challenger Volkan Oezdemir and Azamat Murzakanov was expected to take place at the event. However, Murzakanov pulled out in early August due to unknown reasons and was replaced by promotional newcomer Bogdan Guskov."

I assume Guskov will lose this fight, but I don't like how Oezdemir trained in Europe with a bunch of random dudes (not sure how long he has been with them).

 

[Jasper_RB81]

"A light heavyweight bout between former UFC Light Heavyweight Championship challenger Volkan Oezdemir and Azamat Murzakanov was expected to take place at the event. However, Murzakanov pulled out in early August due to unknown reasons and was replaced by promotional newcomer Bogdan Guskov."

I assume Guskov will lose this fight, but I don't like how Oezdemir trained in Europe with a bunch of random dudes (not sure how long he has been with them).

I did tape all of the Bogdan fights I could find because I don't like how Oezdemir has looked lately so I thought perhaps that Bogdan as an underdog could be descent value. However I'm not so sure. Oezdemir has looked pretty bad lately but he is not a bad fighter, he has good stand-up and descent ground game. Bogdan seems a bit wild and unpolished. I do lean Oezdemir here, I think his experience should be enough to win this one.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Pretty irritated with myself for missing the opening line where Moises was a dog vs Saint Denis... I was looking at it for a few days thinking I should bet it... Then when I finally decided to pull the trigger today he had flipped to the favourite.
Currently Moises sits at -120, which I still think is good value.
I think there is a bit of recency bias going on since Saint Denis handled the the Bonfim hypetrain so well, but this is not the same matchup at all. Moises is a monster on the ground and I think he can win the ground game battle. Stand-up is between two people with sub-par striking so should be fairly even.

 

[mkess101]

Pretty irritated with myself for missing the opening line where Moises was a dog vs Saint Denis... I was looking at it for a few days thinking I should bet it... Then when I finally decided to pull the trigger today he had flipped to the favourite.
Currently Moises sits at -120, which I still think is good value.
I think there is a bit of recency bias going on since Saint Denis handled the the Bonfim hypetrain so well, but this is not the same matchup at all. Moises is a monster on the ground and I think he can win the ground game battle. Stand-up is between two people with sub-par striking so should be fairly even.

Man I was looking at this one and thought Moises was WAY older than he is. I thought he was like 34-35...dude is 28.

If it hits the mat should be fun, but yeah I think Moises is just a shade higher level. BUT...he's sometimes willing to play guard and St Denis is plenty good enough to keep top position and win minutes if Thiago doesn't show urgency to get back to his feet. It's the blessing and the curse of great bjj guys. Comfortable on their backs and avoid damage and even threaten at times but against other high level guys they give rounds away.

Standing...??? It maybe **seems** like St Denis is the busier guy but that could be just a misperception on my part. Would need to dig way deeper.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Funny about the age... i thought the exact same thing

 

[sonhow]

Im all about BSD as dog in France. Guy is damn machine.

 

[Bakayoko]

I'm on BSD.Mkess said it good I think he holds the top position more,also even if Thiago is more tehnical BSD is physically stronger.Also,look at the guys story,he was in the french army special forces and started training at 2017,going full time training few years later,the guy is improving rapidly.Add to that the fight is Paris and is probably going to the scorecards,I think he's clearly the side here.

 

[mkess101]

I'm on BSD.Mkess said it good I think he holds the top position more,also even if Thiago is more tehnical BSD is physically stronger.Also,look at the guys story,he was in the french army special forces and started training at 2017,going full time training few years later,the guy is improving rapidly.Add to that the fight is Paris and is probably going to the scorecards,I think he's clearly the side here.

I forgot the Paris angle. Yeah...close rounds you gotta think the judges get swayed by the fans going nuts whenever BSD does anything positive. I'm dumb for not even realizing it was in Paris.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Personally I'm on Moises, I think he is too strong and technical for BSD. But I can certainly see a case for BSD to grind it out and wear down Moises over the course of the fight.

What you guys think about Spivak as an underdog?

Gane hasn't faced any wrestlers in the UFC and the one time he did he was schooled pretty hard by Jones. Jones is Jones so somewhat forgiving him for that, but it looked a bit to easy for Jones in my opinion, no? Gane was submitted almost instantly when taken down. Spivak is no joke on the ground and has pretty good takedowns.

Gane might be to fast for Spivak though.

 

[glenn777]

Spivak as a dog is very enticing. The way he's been throwing the big big boys of heavyweight around with ease like a WMMA fight is spectacular. He seems to beat most of the fat HW brawlers and the only athletic HW he fights he gets smoked by (Aspinall). Tom would've had 0 fear of hitting the ground so his striking was 100%, Cyril will most likely be very wary since his last 2 performances wrestling wise so may not be able to strike at Toms level against the Polar bear.

 

[Bakayoko]

I get the Spivak angle totally,but honestly,I think Gane froze against Jones.The footwork and distance manegment should keep Spivak away and he will be there to be hit.Fighters sometimes brain fart,we have seen Lemos submited by a standing arm triangle and then surviving five rounds on the bottom last week.I get the Spivak bettors but think Gane smokes him

 

[Wagner Azevedo]

Spivak as a dog is very enticing. The way he's been throwing the big big boys of heavyweight around with ease like a WMMA fight is spectacular. He seems to beat most of the fat HW brawlers and the only athletic HW he fights he gets smoked by (Aspinall). Tom would've had 0 fear of hitting the ground so his striking was 100%, Cyril will most likely be very wary since his last 2 performances wrestling wise so may not be able to strike at Toms level against the Polar bear.

I can't ever hate a dog play against someone so bad on the ground as Gane. But I just can't see Gane not dominating this fight. Spivak is slow

I get the Spivak angle totally,but honestly,I think Gane froze against Jones.The footwork and distance manegment should keep Spivak away and he will be there to be hit.Fighters sometimes brain fart,we have seen Lemos submited by a standing arm triangle and then surviving five rounds on the bottom last week.I get the Spivak bettors but think Gane smokes him

I agree.

Gane ground game is a joke? absolutely. But I don't think Spivak will be able to exploit that. If nothing else gane is fast, has good footwork and a good fight IQ. There's an abismal difference between Jones and Spivak.

With that said, I was very confident Gane would beat Jones. So please don't listen to me...lol

 

[mkess101]

I'm on Spivak. Small. This is gonna sound obvious, but however this fight goes someone is gonna like they should've been -300. Either Spivak ragdolls Gane and we realize that A) Spivak really has become that dude as far as HW grapplers go and B) Gane has gaping holes in his defensive grappling that aren't going away soon OR we see that there's a massive speed and skill difference between the 2 and that Gane at his best is still top 5 in the world while Spivak is a level below.

And since I honestly just have no clue which scenario we see...I'll just roll with the + money (small) and see how it shakes out.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t understand how Kleydson is +235 here. Thought it would be closer to evens than over +200…

Any opposing views?

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t understand how Kleydson is +235 here. Thought it would be closer to evens than over +200…

Any opposing views?

Rodrigues is good value at his current betting line imo. The price-tag isn't surprising to me considering Kleydson opened as a massive underdog against Taira before eventually being heavily bet down.

I think theres an inaccurate view about him having a grappling deficiency, specifically a poor getup game, due to the fact CJ Vergara racked up nearly four minutes of control time on him in the second round of their fight. There are a few reasons why this is wrong.

1.) Vergara got away with some egregious cheating that most refs would have taken position and/or a point over. It cant be ignored when trying to analyze why the fight played out the way it did. For a few seconds early in the second round (4:40-4:37) Vergara had Rodrigues mounted and was grabbing the cage with his right hand to hold position, while dropping hammerfists with his left hand:



Late in the second round after Kleydson had recovered his guard Vergara again grabbed the fence, after taking mount, to prevent from being bucked off:



2.) Rodrigues was hurt by a body shot early in the second round and shot his own takedown before losing a scramble to end up on bottom. He was never actually taken down by CJ Vergara nor either of his two UFC opponents. He fought a wrestler on DWCS and was taken down twice, but immediately got back to his feet both times

3.) Rodrigues may have been recovering from the body shot and not been trying all that hard to get back to his feet for a portion of the second round. He has shown an ability to escape, sweep, or reverse when he needs to.

On the feet Rodrigues has a more diverse striking arsenal, speed advantage, and I imagine a power advantage as well. Farid has good striking and is capable of winning a fifteen minute kickboxing match or knocking Rodrigues out but I do give the edge to Rodrigues on the feet which is why I think he wins. Its also worth considering that Farid has never fought anyone anywhere near as athletic or explosive as Rodrigues. Farid had a big striking advantage imo over Damon Blackshear yet he continually chose to bring their fight to the ground, where Blackshear was best equipped to win, which demonstrates Farid isn't totally comfortable yet on the feet against high quality opposition. Thats not to say Farid cant or wont win because I do think he is very good but at these odds playing Rodrigues is the only sound play imo; dog or pass.

 

[SplashB]

Lapilus vs Gafurov is off due to visa issues for Gafurov. The UFC is looking for a replacement to keep Lapilus on the card.