UFC on ESPN 6 Reyes vs Weidman

[theTKDguy]

Also makes zero sense to parlay Bochiak at his odds, just play his line straight.

Agree

 

[Flexstyle]

Is it safe to say that Stephens vs Yair fight won't go the distance? The odds are amazing for that one and with so much hatred between the 2, I don't see it going tne distance.

 

[Sono07]

First off that is just assumptions you are making, he has made 145 a few times already. Also makes zero sense to parlay Bochiak at his odds, just play his line straight.

You're correct, that is personal opinion and speculation nothing specific to his current cut just more a read and feeling from my gut.
Also I did bet him straight, he is one of my largest bets in the official thread. Just looking for another small parlay to back up my Hardy action. Seems like you're on Woodson here best of luck either way. He just hasn't impressed me, doesn't mean he won't tonight

 

[Oblivian]

Is it safe to say that Stephens vs Yair fight won't go the distance? The odds are amazing for that one and with so much hatred between the 2, I don't see it going tne distance.

I would say Yair's most likely route to victory is a decision. However, I like my Stephens bet more than ever now as I do think he can lure Yair into a firefight more than before due to the animosity.

 

[Sono07]

Agree

Why not both?

 

[BigNick100]

You're correct, that is personal opinion and speculation nothing specific to his current cut just more a read and feeling from my gut.
Also I did bet him straight, he is one of my largest bets in the official thread. Just looking for another small parlay to back up my Hardy action. Seems like you're on Woodson here best of luck either way. He just hasn't impressed me, doesn't mean he won't tonight

my thing is Boch has never been a high volume striker, going against someone that throws volume. He also hasn't shown great td's in the UFC (only %18 td's completed) but he has shown he can grind against the fence (Davis fight). He is facing some reach and height disadvantage here (9 inch reach thats huge) , but also has experience on his side. Hard to know how good Woodson is, or how bad he may be if thats the case lol, some many not rate his pitty patter shots, but he showed nice heart in the DWCS fight coming back to get that flying knee esp after cutting 24 pounds in 5 days, been with Krasue and doing all the right things to improve since. But then could be a tough task against a vet in Boch in his hometown. So I see both sides here

Boch has been out landed and pretty much out volumed in all of his UFC fights, lands only 2.60 strikes per min which isnt great at all, still has to overcome that reach and even if you think Woodson doesn't have much power still gotta be weary of strikes coming at him coming in with that huge reach disadvantage, he cant stay outside for long periods of time since Woodson could be racking up strikes during that time, but if he uses the Zabit approach in round 3 of that fight here where he just walks forward ya he could make it look easy possibly, I could see that too. But best path I think is Boch trying to grind and clinch his way to a dec.

I am Woodson small at +130 in a fight I think can be very close so I will take the dog. Good luck on your bet too, and the end of the day Woodson is one of my smaller bets for the card.

PS. nothing wrong with getting a little cute with putting Boch in a parlay if your that confident but don't make it a large sum of your Boch bet is my advice, example if your betting 1u worth on Boch, just go .75u straight on his ML and parlay the other .25u with someone else if your really getting the itch, that way if Boch wins you still made profit on him if your other leg of the .25 parlay doesn't hit. Still at the end of the day I would just play him straight with his current line.

 

[ApplesVild]

Is it safe to say that Stephens vs Yair fight won't go the distance? The odds are amazing for that one and with so much hatred between the 2, I don't see it going tne distance.

It's fairly likely to go the distance in my oppinion. Both guys are very tough and with it being a 3 rounder now there is less time for damage to build up over the time limit from Yair. It not going the distance isn't far of saying Stephens by KO.

With that Yair could potentially finish Stephen's but it's less likely.

I think Yair by decision

 

[LiquidNuke]

Was thinking about a three way parlay of Barber, Bermudez and Pearce, all ITD. 35 bucks next you almost 300.

Anyone have any thoughts?

 

[Card]

Rodriguez now the favorite.

 

[Sono07]

my thing is Boch has never been a high volume striker, going against someone that throws volume. He also hasn't shown great td's in the UFC (only %18 td's completed) but he has shown he can grind against the fence (Davis fight). He is facing some reach and height disadvantage here (9 inch reach thats huge) , but also has experience on his side. Hard to know how good Woodson is, or how bad he may be if thats the case lol, some many not rate his pitty patter shots, but he showed nice heart in the DWCS fight coming back to get that flying knee esp after cutting 24 pounds in 5 days, been with Krasue and doing all the right things to improve since. But then could be a tough task against a vet in Boch in his hometown. So I see both sides here

Boch has been out landed and pretty much out volumed in all of his UFC fights, lands only 2.60 strikes per min which isnt great at all, still has to overcome that reach and even if you think Woodson doesn't have much power still gotta be weary of strikes coming at him coming in with that huge reach disadvantage, he cant stay outside for long periods of time since Woodson could be racking up strikes during that time, but if he uses the Zabit approach in round 3 of that fight here where he just walks forward ya he could make it look easy possibly, I could see that too. But best path I think is Boch trying to grind and clinch his way to a dec.

I am Woodson small at +130 in a fight I think can be very close so I will take the dog. Good luck on your bet too, and the end of the day Woodson is one of my smaller bets for the card.

PS. nothing wrong with getting a little cute with putting Boch in a parlay if your that confident but don't make it a large sum of your Boch bet is my advice, example if your betting 1u worth on Boch, just go .75u straight on his ML and parlay the other .25u with someone else if your really getting the itch, that way if Boch wins you still made profit on him if your other leg of the .25 parlay doesn't hit. Still at the end of the day I would just play him straight with his current line.

I appreciate the advice, definitely not going crazy but I seem to have luck going against the grain with my parlays. Alex Morono last week, Uriah Hall before that, honestly my Pena play probably should have paid off even the commentary team thought he won.
Rough cut or not I thought Sean looked bad in his last fight and was losing almost every second but the last. Woodson vs Lovelace 2 confirmed it for me as I don't think Sean uses his range very well and think Kyle is better/faster in many transitions.
Don't get me wrong Kyle doesn't look like some world beater with his basic American wrestle boxer style.
My take away against Zabit was he is fairly well rounded, can take big shots without backing down and will try to walk his man down from bell to bell.
From the interview Kyle seems to be very motivated coming in.
Just my thoughts we have a driven, we'll rounded, we'll liked local who will be hard to put out.
The way I see it Bochniak is posed to win by decision and may steal it on the cards even if he does get out volumed. Best of luck on Woodson personally I'd recommend his NSC line

 

[theTKDguy]

Why not both?

who do you wanna parlay him with? hardy should take it but these are 265 pounders man, not worth the risk (fun parlays yes but not a decent parlay)

 

[theTKDguy]

Makes sense yair is now the fav. jeremy is too emotional coming into this fight and i feel he'll stand in the middle of the cage like he did last time, loading bombs with no setup, while yair scores with kicks and dances around him. have yair dec on a fun parlay, stepehens ko'ing the shit out of him wouldn't bother me at all tho

 

[Sono07]

who do you wanna parlay him with? hardy should take it but these are 265 pounders man, not worth the risk (fun parlays yes but not a decent parlay)

I seem to like Bochniak more than most here, just not impressed by his opponent because he is tall.
I like @TrueAscension idea of Hardy v Sosoli doesn't start r3 I'm not much of a prop guy so idk.
You're right hard to have confidence in many HWs but I believe Ben and Greg are going to come out swinging hammers early until one of them falls over. Hopefully Sosoli goes down, either way hard to see this going past r2 unless it is a whole lot of nothing like Lewis vs Ngannou

 

[ApplesVild]

Was thinking about a three way parlay of Barber, Bermudez and Pearce, all ITD. 35 bucks next you almost 300.

Anyone have any thoughts?

I hate seeing posts like this.I know they're bad bets and a bad idea to touch but I see them and I just want to tail them! Some part of my brain goes 'but it could happen...'

I just think Barber is shit. Gillian is too, but Gillian is shit and has a ground game.

Watching a fight or two back earlier I really didn't see anything in Barber's striking that makes me think it's any better than Gillian's.

 

[LiquidNuke]

I hate seeing posts like this.I know they're bad bets and a bad idea to touch but I see them and I just want to tail them! Some part of my brain goes 'but it could happen...'

I just think Barber is shit. Gillian is too, but Gillian is shit and has a ground game.

Watching a fight or two back earlier I really didn't see anything in Barber's striking that makes me think it's any better than Gillian's.

I approve of your disapproval? lol.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

I'm certain I'm violating my own rule of not betting on fighters who are moving up in weight looking to grapple. Hasn't worked that well for a lot of recent fighters. The Chris, however, is far and away the best grappler Reyes has faced and has been improving even that part of his game. I think Weidman and Reyes have had success being above OK at their respective weight classes but LHW is a lot worse talent wise than MW. Durability is obviously The Chris' biggest concern although I like his top control and TD variety in the clinch to win. Perhaps take the back and choke the up and comer. Full prepared to see my boy ko'd and retire tho.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Anyone remember the horrific state of lauzon's eyes and face last time out? Looked like the motherfucker was dressed up for Halloween.

When you start getting beaten that badly, you need to seriously consider retirement ASAP. You're endangering yourself each time you go out there if you're at the state of depletion during lauzon is...

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Anyone remember the horrific state of lauzon's eyes and face last time out? Looked like the motherfucker was dressed up for Halloween.

When you start getting beaten that badly, you need to seriously consider retirement ASAP. You're endangering yourself each time you go out there if you're at the state of depletion during lauzon is...

I think he'll retire win or lose, too perfect for him to go out in Boston.

 

[LiquidNuke]

I think he'll retire win or lose, too perfect for him to go out in Boston.

i hope so, I don't really enjoy prolonged beatings where guys horrify their families and friends with their appearance afterwards...

 

[null]

Weidman by submission +650? Don't mind if I do!