UFC on ESPN 3 Ngannou vs Dos Santos

[zeckdo]

Martian MMA 65, UFC on ESPN 3 Ngannou vs Dos Santos analysis, prediction, and betting discussion.

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Albini vs Greene starts at 1:15
Whitmire vs Ribas: 4:05
Dalcha vs Townsend 8:05
Gordon vs Moret 14:00
Griffin vs Murdock 19:00
Anders vs Moreira 23:15
Ramos vs Newson 27:35
Craig vs Menifield 32:15
Dober vs Reyes 37:50
Pichel vs Roberts 42:10
Maia vs Martin 47:00
Formiga vs Benavidez 52:45
Dos Santos vs Ngannou 58:25

 

[Soccer Steve]

I don't see anyone in this thread saying that Craig is going to try and take Alonzo down. I've said he weathers the storm and subs Alonzo as he moves in for the kill. Its obviously +500 for a reason.

I'm just getting myself riled up because Craig pulled a miracle out of his ass for me and now I'm betraying him.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

Dober by KO is a pretty nice + money line. You can also take FDGTD for the case that Polo pulls off a KO but I don’t see that happening.

He has solid power, solid striking, great cardio & he is super durable. Polo is a old mexican backyard boxer with a cracked chin who gets wobbled in every fight. Dober could take him down and finish him there, too. If you get Khabib‘d by Damir Hadzovic, that means your ground game sucks bad.

The line is probably so high because Dober doesn’t have many finishes in the UFC but look who he fought recently. Tuck, Camacho, Holtzman. All tough guys with great chins.

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

I don't have any money on it, but having rewatched Reem/Ngannou I'm not as sold as some of you guys are that JDS can't win here.

I dont favour him, but I could certainly see his footwork giving Francis some trouble. Overeem was dumb trying to throw these huge looping hooks, along with attempts at some sort of head movement/weaving that eventually lead to his grave. I don't think JDS makes the same mistake. If the line moves a little more I might take a little stab at JDS.

Also probably going to put something down on Benavidez. This is a huge fight for him (he wins he probably gets a rematch with Cejudo). Can't see Jussier out striking him, nor being able to land any takedowns. They're both the same age and very similar amount of fights, as well.

 

[ill800]

Ngannou is not going to look like he did against Stipe. He's much much leaner now. His cardio is obviously improved. He's on a mission and DC doesn't want shit to do with that mission. Stipe/Ngannou rematch for the belt after Stipe either beats DC or DC retires.

Ngannou showed a ton of heart in that stipe fight. He also showed us in the next fight that he’s not dumb. He was inactive but he was too concerned about his cardio and since then he’s looked much more comfortable

I’m not concerned about his cardio either

Dober by KO is a pretty nice + money line. You can also take FDGTD for the case that Polo pulls off a KO but I don’t see that happening.

He has solid power, solid striking, great cardio & he is super durable. Polo is a old mexican backyard boxer with a cracked chin who gets wobbled in every fight. Dober could take him down and finish him there, too. If you get Khabib‘d by Damir Hadzovic, that means your ground game sucks bad.

The line is probably so high because Dober doesn’t have many finishes in the UFC but look who he fought recently. Tuck, Camacho, Holtzman. All tough guys with great chins.

I played each ko line, polo small

And fdngtd

Dober hits like a truck but has brick fight iq

I would never touch his ml where it stands now. That’s absurd

Actually played Reyes ml small

 

[NonPhixion]

The Predator will spark JDS inside 1 round

 

[Bastaille]

Murdock is out... fuck i was big on griffin

 

[edole]

Murdock is out... fuck i was big on griffin

Gaaaahhhhhhhh

 

[Malteser]

I personally listen to several MMA betting podcasts, but I consider pretty much all of them as entertainment with occasional interesting tidbits, not for any serious insight or deep technical analysis. HTB talk a lot of shit, but they were all over Molly McCann as a big underdog last week for example and you didn't need to sign up for their service to read between the lines and know that was clearly one of their recommended plays.

Which MMA YouTube channels or podcasts would you recommend? I have been listening to Diary of a Pro Gambler, which discusses similar stuff to this sub-forum.

 

[null]

Which MMA YouTube channels or podcasts would you recommend? I have been listening to Diary of a Pro Gambler, which discusses similar stuff to this sub-forum.

As far as the ones that are MMA betting and odds focused specifically and not just about MMA news and happenings in general, which would be a different and much longer list:

The Oddscast on MMA Oddsbreaker
The MMA Analysis on YouTube
MMA Vivisection on Bloody Elbow
Half The Battle by BestFightPicks
Newsome MMA
Game Time Decisions with Gabriel Morency on Fantasy Sports Network (GambLou guest segments only)

Also worth listening to before every UFC card even though they aren't heavily betting focused :
The Score MMA Preview Shows by James Lynch
MMAOB Daily Show Previews with Adam Martin

 

[Naught2Sixty]

As far as the ones that are MMA betting and odds focused specifically and not just about MMA news and happenings in general, which would be a different and much longer list:

The Oddscast on MMA Oddsbreaker
The MMA Analysis on YouTube
MMA Vivisection on Bloody Elbow
Half The Battle by BestFightPicks
Newsome MMA
Game Time Decisions with Gabriel Morency on Fantasy Sports Network (GambLou guest segments only)

Also worth listening to before every UFC card even though they aren't heavily betting focused :
The Score MMA Preview Shows by James Lynch
MMAOB Daily Show Previews with Adam Martin

Happy for Lynch now that he landed a job at the score. Good opportunity for him but man the Parting Shot was a much better podcast than what they both have going now.

 

[Sauna]

As far as the ones that are MMA betting and odds focused specifically and not just about MMA news and happenings in general, which would be a different and much longer list:

The Oddscast on MMA Oddsbreaker
The MMA Analysis on YouTube
MMA Vivisection on Bloody Elbow
Half The Battle by BestFightPicks
Newsome MMA
Game Time Decisions with Gabriel Morency on Fantasy Sports Network (GambLou guest segments only)

Also worth listening to before every UFC card even though they aren't heavily betting focused :
The Score MMA Preview Shows by James Lynch
MMAOB Daily Show Previews with Adam Martin

I think it helps to listen all kind of peoples and the longer you listen you understand about them and their style of picking. like I love that degen Kelton at ufc bro picks because I know when he has it right and when he's chasing dreams or just repeats what the pleb ass market is saying.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

Dober hits like a truck but has brick fight iq

He tried to take Dariush‘s back and punch him instead of breaking up. That wasn’t smart but also not a Andre Soccermom type of move.

It was a intuitive move and the guy who got ragdolled by Damir is no danger on the ground, so Dober can go for stupid grappling exchanges if he wants to lol.

 

[TrueAscension]

For anyone without a sportsline account, here are the picks :

Ngannou via TKO (R1 or R2)
Benavidez via unanimous decision
Maia via submission
Roberts via unanimous decision
Dober via unanimous decision
Menifield via TKO
Ramos via submission
Anders via TKO
Griffin via TKO
Gordon via TKO
Ribas via submission
Albini via unanimous decision
Lungiambula via TKO

 

[ApplesVild]

For anyone without a sportsline account, here are the picks :

Ngannou via TKO (R1 or R2)
Benavidez via unanimous decision
Maia via submission
Roberts via unanimous decision
Dober via unanimous decision
Menifield via TKO
Ramos via submission
Anders via TKO
Griffin via TKO
Gordon via TKO
Ribas via submission
Albini via unanimous decision
Lungiambula via TKO

So pretty much the standard picks for this event, all the favourites apart from one fight.

I hope this event is like last week and a bunch of dogs come in for the lols

 

[usernamee]

Live weighins going on..

Eryk Anders stepped on the scale.. scale-guy adjusted the scale..looked at it.. stepped off and called out "186 even"

minutes passes and people are talking because why the fuck would he weigh 186?!

Eryk Anders comes back and weighs in again, this time the scale-guy gets it right and he weighs in at LHW like he should.


The fuck was the scale guy doing?

 

[ApplesVild]

Live weighins going on..

Eryk Anders stepped on the scale.. scale-guy adjusted the scale..looked at it.. stepped off and called out "186 even"

minutes passes and people are talking because why the fuck would he weigh 186?!

Eryk Anders comes back and weighs in again, this time the scale-guy gets it right and he weighs in at LHW like he should.


The fuck was the scale guy doing?

Hahahah that's fucked up. Basically the scale guy is just reading out whatever weight the UFC tell him and someone fucked up and forgot that Anders moved up to light heavy weight. I can really see no other explanation for him hitting the middle weight limit first time on there

 

[null]

UFC Minneapolis early official weigh-in stream from earlier this morning:

 

[HeadsUpPoker]

Hahahah that's fucked up. Basically the scale guy is just reading out whatever weight the UFC tell him and someone fucked up and forgot that Anders moved up to light heavy weight. I can really see no other explanation for him hitting the middle weight limit first time on there

Nick Diaz was right about GSP.

 

[null]

Live weighins going on..

Eryk Anders stepped on the scale.. scale-guy adjusted the scale..looked at it.. stepped off and called out "186 even"

minutes passes and people are talking because why the fuck would he weigh 186?!

Eryk Anders comes back and weighs in again, this time the scale-guy gets it right and he weighs in at LHW like he should.


The fuck was the scale guy doing?

I'm not a conspiracy theory guy, but that was shady as fuck.