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UFC on ABC 5: Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria, Jacksonville, Florida, June 24

First look of the lines and some things that stick out to me are Jack Jenkins, Neil Magny, Bruno Silva KO/TKO if a good price, Gillian Robertson, Emmett/Topuria U1.5/2.5 if a good price.
 
jnes said:
First look of the lines and some things that stick out to me are Jack Jenkins, Neil Magny, Bruno Silva KO/TKO if a good price, Gillian Robertson, Emmett/Topuria U1.5/2.5 if a good price.
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I’ve gone back and fourth in the Dms with a few people on Jenkins.

I honestly thought he looked terrible in his last fight against Don Shainis.

He got mounted and got his back taken by a slow lethargic regional fighter.

Emmers had a robbery loss to Giga, dropped Sabatini and was winning until he got leg locked( would likely win a rematch.)
as he mounted Sabatini.

And his last win against 23-0 russian fighter.

I see Emmers having faster reaction time, better teep kicks from range, and better at ducking punches.

I can’t see Jenkins catching him, Or even controlling him long enough to win. what is the path for Jenkins here? He’s let a few low levels go the distance. He can’t possibly stop Emmers.
 
Stat_Collector said:
I’ve gone back and fourth in the Dms with a few people on Jenkins.

I honestly thought he looked terrible in his last fight against Don Shainis.

He got mounted and got his back taken by a slow lethargic regional fighter.

Emmers had a robbery loss to Giga, dropped Sabatini and was winning until he got leg locked( would likely win a rematch.)
as he mounted Sabatini.

And his last win against 23-0 russian fighter.

I see Emmers having faster reaction time, better teep kicks from range, and better at ducking punches.

I can’t see Jenkins catching him, Or even controlling him long enough to win. what is the path for Jenkins here? He’s let a few low levels go the distance. He can’t possibly stop Emmers.
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I feel like Jenkins is a bit overhyped. If Emmers fights to his full capabilities he could really give Jenkins a vet lesson. I thought the last outing was pretty poor given the calibre of opponent
 
Topuria is a beast and potentially the best fw in the world actually but I do feel Emmet is still a dangerous fight for him. He will probably enter the pocket and throw down like he always does and Josh is happy to throw with him. Then it becomes a contest of who lands first as both have absolute dynamite in their hands. Ilia did show good recovery after getting hit clean by Herbert.
Grappling if it goes there is all Ilia. I think Josh has nothing for him there.
 
johno said:
I feel like Jenkins is a bit overhyped. If Emmers fights to his full capabilities he could really give Jenkins a vet lesson. I thought the last outing was pretty poor given the calibre of opponent
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yeah his contenders fight wasn’t that great either. it was almost a decision and i had him in a ko prop. i remember feeling pissed off the whole fight and sweating because i thought he would steamroll. he just puts on mid performances.
 
I think Brendan Allen has turned a corner and become a trustworthy guy. There's nowhere he's overmatched. He mixes up his game well. Seems to have found that groove that elite guys find where they are always comfortable regardless of where the fight goes.

I think he likely pushes grappling more here and wears Sliva out.
 
mkess101 said:
I think Brendan Allen has turned a corner and become a trustworthy guy. There's nowhere he's overmatched. He mixes up his game well. Seems to have found that groove that elite guys find where they are always comfortable regardless of where the fight goes.

I think he likely pushes grappling more here and wears Sliva out.
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How different in terms of skill is Bruno from Strickland and Curtis?

Id say Bruno hits slightly harder but maybe not as competent on the ground.

I just see it as a passable fight. Allen sub has value but it’s probably not going to be over 200+

Dangerous for me because of Bruno’s heavy hands and Allens’ chin. i haven’t taped deep enough but that is what i see first glance.
 
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Stat_Collector said:
How different in terms of skill is Bruno from Strickland and Curtis?

Id say Bruno hits slightly harder but maybe not as competent on the ground.

I just see it as a passable fight. Allen sub has value but it’s probably not going to be over 200+

Dangerous for me because of Bruno’s heavy hands and Allens’ chin. i haven’t taped deep enough but that is what i see first glance.
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Bruno hits like a truck but relies a lot on just rushing and trying to force a firefight. Which I think will allow Allen to implement his grappling game without having to figure out how to close distance himself. Curtis has way better TDD than Silva, and Strickland is a much better boxer.

Plus...just seems like Allen has elevated his game.
 
Taira is the future champion. Betting on Rodriguez to win is not as good as transferring the money to me.
Jasper_RB81 said:
Bet365 has him @+300 right now, I took that for half a unit. Not the most confident play, but the hype around Taira is overblown in my opinion. He is good, but not sure he is that good and Kleydson is no joke.

Great play on the opener.
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Tafa at almost -200 is crazy to me. This guy lost to Carlos Filipe and Vanderaa not long ago. How can anyone bet him at this price?
Austen Lane could get KOd in the first the way he fights, but if this goes past round 1 I don't trust Tafa at all. This line doesn't make sense to me at all. Maybe there is actually value on Lane here... not sure.
 
Van+150
Jenkins+145
Robertson+105
Allen-165
Dumas+120
Barber+145

Taira/Rod-OV
Radz/Rebecki-OV
Brown/Turman-OV
Magny/Rowe-OV
Emmett/Topuria-OV

Peek/Mariscal-UN
Lane/Tafa-UN
Onoma/Santos-UN
 
Jasper_RB81 said:
Tafa at almost -200 is crazy to me. This guy lost to Carlos Filipe and Vanderaa not long ago. How can anyone bet him at this price?
Austen Lane could get KOd in the first the way he fights, but if this goes past round 1 I don't trust Tafa at all. This line doesn't make sense to me at all. Maybe there is actually value on Lane here... not sure.
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Lane's a glass cannon and he likes to exchange, I don't see him getting out of the first.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Lane's a glass cannon and he likes to exchange, I don't see him getting out of the first.
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Then bet KO R1 or KO R1/R2... the money line is too wide imo. Lane for sure has a path to victory in this fight. If he gets the wrestling going then this fight could be a boring snooze fest with Lane cage stalling and laying on top of Tafa for three rounds.
 
Jasper_RB81 said:
Then bet KO R1 or KO R1/R2... the money line is too wide imo. Lane for sure has a path to victory in this fight. If he gets the wrestling going then this fight could be a boring snooze fest with Lane cage stalling and laying on top of Tafa for three rounds.
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I bet Tafa last week. I think his KO line will be similar to what I got him for ML. I got him for 1.65 I think it was.

But now I think you're right that now the odds are a good amount shorter it's probably best to play KO.
 
Jasper_RB81 said:
Then bet KO R1 or KO R1/R2... the money line is too wide imo. Lane for sure has a path to victory in this fight. If he gets the wrestling going then this fight could be a boring snooze fest with Lane cage stalling and laying on top of Tafa for three rounds.
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He has that avenue of victory but I'm having trouble seeing him walking through the fire to get there. Not a big tafa fan but I feel like this is a good spot for him to let his hands go. From the information available I'd be very wary trusting lanes durability
 
Interesting to see Turman move down to 170. These last ditch attempts for success rarely work out. He spent years being a reasonable sized middleweight to cut back down. Couple that with his numerous ko losses. If Rude boy doesn't sleep him, it will only be a matter of time
 
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